A recent test run of Sound Transit light rail. (Sound Transit)
As the three-county area served by
Sound Transit prepares for the November vote on the future of the system, as part of the
Regional Transportation Investment District (RTID), the benefits of light rail (or lack thereof) have come under close scrutiny. The plan, which calls for $11.5 billion in investment in light rail, is certainly expensive. The costs, however, are balanced by significant benefits in terms of transit capacity and environmental impacts.
Light rail does, to be sure, require a great deal of capital investment due to the need to build fixed-line tracks, usually on separate rights-of-way. In Seattle, the situation is complicated by the hilly nature of the landscape; the tunnel being bored under Beacon Hill is far more expensive than the normal cost of light rail. (An additional tunnel under Capitol Hill will be built regardless of the outcome of the November election). Still, next to the cost of a
replacement for the Evergreen Point Bridge for Highway 520, light rail looks downright cheap.
There is, moreover, a payoff: significant ridership gains. The advantage of light rail over other transit modes is that it attracts new ridership to a far greater degree. There are a variety of reasons for this, including the oft-noted phenomenon known as "rail bias." Despite the name, there is nothing irrational about preferring the advantages of rail over the discomfort and inconvenience of buses.
Sound Transit's lines will greatly increase transit capacity along the corridors they serve. Because most of the line will have its own right of way, it will to a large degree be able to avoid congestion. During peak times, trains will run every few minutes, providing regular, dependable, and fast service. As the region grows and increases in density, train frequency can be increased to meet demand without affecting travel times. This is the advantage of light rail: It can move large numbers of people, quickly and efficiently, over a set corridor. Sound Transit's projections estimate that, when completed, the system will see 350,000 daily rides, more than
King County Metro's bus service currently provides.
Opponents of light rail often rally around the alternative of
bus rapid transit (BRT), which they see as a cheaper alternative. Bus rapid transit, unfortunately, is a chimera. To be viable, it too requires separate rights of way and thus large capital costs; these fixed routes are no more flexible than light-rail lines, even if the vehicles, in theory, are. Moreover, it does not create much new ridership but rather cannibalizes the riders of existing bus routes.
Vancouver runs three bus-rapid-transit routes. They're also planning to get out of the BRT business, replacing the existing routes with light-rail lines. The reason? Light rail has more capacity for expansion of service and attracts more ridership. Ottawa, meanwhile, built a BRT route that ended up being roughly as expensive as a light-rail line and proved to be a massive headache, because buses were constantly getting snarled at stations. All in all, bus rapid transit is exactly what the detractors of light rail claim to want to avoid: a massive waste of public money with little benefit.
Despite claims by its detractors, Sound Transit will also have a positive environmental impact. Last week, Crosscut published
a piece by Emory Bundy criticizing Sound Transit and arguing that the construction of the light-rail line would be environmentally destructive. The argument rested on two premises: first, that construction of tunnels for the system would unleash enormous amounts of greenhouse gases, and second, that light rail is not significantly more energy efficient than automobiles. The first premise has some merit, the second is categorically false.
Let's start with the second claim, that rail isn't that much more efficient than cars. Bundy relies on U.S. Department of Energy statistics that are deeply flawed. They are based on ridership statistics for trains and buses that are far lower than is appropriate for a major metropolitan area: 21.7 passengers per light rail vehicle, 8.7 passengers per bus. They also vastly underrate the fuel efficiency of rail vehicles and buses alike; for alternative measures, see
this Wikipedia article or
this detailed look at specific vehicles. The general pattern is clear: On a per-passenger basis, both trains and buses are several times more fuel efficient than automobiles, with trains having a significant advantage over buses. A real-world example:
Vancouver's light rail line achieves an average fuel efficiency equivalent to 346 passenger miles per gallon, while
BC Transit buses achieve 105 passenger miles per gallon. During peak travel times or with increases in ridership, transit's efficiency advantage becomes even more pronounced.
Tunneling does, as Bundy claims, require large expenditures of greenhouse gases; his metric is 1.3 million tons of CO2 (the Federal Transit Administration endorsed an estimate of 640,000 tons). And, as Bundy argues, it will take some time for the rail service to make up this cost. While it would be unwise to glibly ignore the costs of construction, it is reasonable to allow for a transit system to achieve benefits over time. Moreover, the tunnels Bundy cites have already been approved and are not part of the RTID proposal. Any other major increase in transportation capacity, be it bus rapid transit or new highways, would similarly incur a large expenditure of CO2 without the future benefit of reduced emissions.
Bundy advocates two other options: bikes and vanpools. King County Metro already runs the largest public vanpool program in the United States. Moreover, Seattle is at least in theory beginning to implement a significant plan to increase the viability of bicycling as a mode of transportation, though it remains to be seen whether the city has the political will to take the necessary steps. The overall picture, though, is that Seattle and its neighbors are building a comprehensive transit system that provides a variety of attractive options to commuters. Expanding Sound Transit is an important part of completing that system.
Comments:
Posted Thu, Aug 2, 11:31 a.m. Inappropriate
I'll start with the one way it COULD be true: if ST uses revenue sources OTHER THAN local taxes or bond sales proceeds to cover whatever the costs turn out to be.
Why would ST be prevented from using local taxes or bond sale proceeds to spend on University Link? Because of some limitations in the local ordinance the voters approved in 1996.
Here is what Sound Move (part of the ordinance the voters approved in 1996) says with respect to subarea spending budgets: "The RTA Financing Plan will provide a budget for each of the five RTA subareas, comprised of the subarea's projected share of local taxes, bonding capacity and farebox proceeds, and an assumption for federal funding, and related expenditures." Sound Move, Appendix B.
ST already spent the taxes and bonding capacity the voters budgeted for the North King County subarea. Those amounts are specified in Appendix A of Sound Move. There is no more of those types of revenue left in that subarea's voter-approved budget.
ST itself does not say it could afford University Link without ST2 passing. Where the author of this article got that idea is anyone's guess.
What will be on the ballot in November in fact specifically allows additional tax revenue spending on the 1996 system plan (which is what University Link is part of). In particular, terms in sec's 2 and 3 of Res. R2007-15, and terms in the ST2 Plan (especially Appendix B thereof), are there so that ST would get the additional tax spending authority it would need to cover the University Link costs the federal grant would not cover.
Anyone want to try arguing that the terms from Sound Move referenced in this post would not prevent ST from spending tax revenue on University Link in the event the measure in November is not approved?
Posted Thu, Aug 2, 12:06 p.m. Inappropriate
This raises an interesting question: just how high do the densities need to be in order to have a material impact on whatever outcome you care about: congestion, air emissions, percentage of people riding transit, etc?
Another interesting question: are the densities in the developments in the Rainier Valley at this level? There's a far cry from New Holly's density and the density of even Belltown, much less the cities we think of having outstanding rail systems, like Chicago or NYC.
There are many more issues and questions too, but one I'm really curious about is whether there will be some sort of policing at the 154th street garage, making sure only people who are going to downtown Seattle park there, and that the parking lot isn't filled up with people by 7 am who work at the Airport or who are taking day trips to Portland or other cities via air and want to save on parking costs. Also will there be some sort of policing of whatever new developments are built, making sure the people who live there are in fact taking the transit on a regular basis? Maybe the new construction will be filled with retirees instead, who only occasionally ride the train.
There are lots of hopes, what becomes interesting is what needs to happen for those hopes to turn into reality.
Posted Thu, Aug 2, 12:11 p.m. Inappropriate
Some publications recently had stories about how the percentage of people using public transit in the Seattle area is very high, higher than Portland for example.
There's a mention of "rail bias." Perhaps the author is referring to perceptions that get fanned by the recent story in the Weekly about bus horror stories. Unfortunately there are no guarantees that type of behavior will be limited to buses, it could well happen on trains too.
One of the very few times in my life I've been really scared was when I was in a train tunnel in Philadelphia one night waiting for a subway to arrive. What type of police help will be available at 1 am in the tunnels? Or at 1:30 when the last train is gone for the night? Personally I'd feel a lot safer on a city street waiting for a bus at 1 am than in a tunnel.
Posted Thu, Aug 2, 1:01 p.m. Inappropriate
what sort of police help is available at a bus stop at 1am? it would certainly be easier to provide police help to a station than all the bus stops if that really becomes a problem.
Posted Thu, Aug 2, 1:30 p.m. Inappropriate
No, I'm not referring to "perceptions that get fanned" by stories like the one in the Weekly. Rail bias is a well-attested phenomenon; there are numerous studies showing significant increases in ridership on rail lines replacing identical bus routes.
As for station safety, that's an interesting question and I'd imagine it depends a lot on the city, the area in which the station is located and (as you mention) police presence. I'd point out that per-capita crime rates are far higher in Philadephia than in Seattle.
Posted Thu, Aug 2, 2:58 p.m. Inappropriate
Certainly the unit of analysis becomes an issue. Are we looking at percentage inside a city's limits, inside a county, inside the counties of a state, inside an entire metro area of Portland and Vancouver WA, or what? The boundaries get blurry. Ridership in less dense areas is a function of many factors. If there were a bus lane going out of the Sammish plateau to Microsoft, I bet bus ridership would go way up, to give one example.
Posted Fri, Aug 3, 9:37 a.m. Inappropriate
Trusting Sound Transit's ridership claims of 350,000 per day 20 years from now for a system that is not built and not funded is a fool's game. We are over two years away from light rail from downtown Seattle to SeaTac Airport being in operation to illustrate the supposed superiority of light rail.
I'm wondering how well the "green wave" of 18 traffic lights in two directions at the same time through four miles of Southeast Seattle is going to work for the 15 shuttling two-car trains of that line, never mind the high-tempo meshing of buses and trains in the downtown Seattle bus tunnel. These problems are described as "challenges" by Sound Transit management. You bet.
But let's play the future ridership game: I believe Mr. Echols' 350,000 riders per day is describing Sound Transit's projected 2030 transit system boardings of 310,400 on Link Light Rail, 15,400 boardings on Sounder Commuter rail, and 33,000 on Regional Express Buses. This sorta equals the 350,000 cited by Mr. Echols, if he doesn't mean something else. He'll get back to us if I'm wrong.
Transit boardings do not represent full door-to-door trips. A full transit journey involving light rail will usually also involve a second "boarding" of a bus going to or from a train station. Sometimes a full trip will mean first boarding a bus, then boarding a train, and then boarding another bus to get where you are finally going.
Transfers cut down on the attractiveness of transit for many people, but Sound Transit's intent is to create a regional transit system with a higher rate of transfers. Like flying from Seattle to Boise through Denver instead of non-stop.
Local transit bus boardings (Metro, Pierce, Community Transit, and Everett) in 2030 from the same set of Sound Transit statistics shows 459,200 boardings, a number which exceeds Sound Transit rail car boardings. Since 2030 light rail is regional, all four of the local bus systems serving the region must be counted, not just King County Metro, which Mr. Echols focuses on.
In the future transit system of Seattle, buses will carry more people than trains, because people need to get close to where they are going. For the same reason, and others, cars do and will carry more people than buses.
More objective forecasts of the future than Sound Transit are likely to provide are prepared by the Puget Sound Regional Council. PSRC forecasts consistently show bus ridership numbers in 2030 and 2040 exceeding rail ridership even with 125 miles of light rail in place. This is because buses, inevitably, even after ST spends $24 billion building phase two light rail and billions more finishing phase one light rail, go to more places than train tracks.
And here's the bad news for light rail zealots -- while transit trips are forecast to be well under one million per day in 2040 with more light rail than Sound Transit can afford to build, the number of daily automobile trips will be 18 to 20 times that, even including a forecast of growing road congestion.
Oh wait, I almost forgot that there is some really terrible news -- if the Sound Transit planned network of light rail service were running at 4-car maximum length with minimum spacing between trains and 200 customers stuffed onto every car, the number of automobile trips in 2040 would still be about 18 times the number of transit riders.
Sound Transit's light rail is a bit "light" on capacity. This is not Bay Area BART and Washington DC Metrorail that we are building for all the billions. Central Link light rail is more symbolic than substantive.
Posted Fri, Aug 3, 12:58 p.m. Inappropriate
The $11.5 is just the tip of the iceberg. The taxing capacity we're voting on will cost us many tens of billions more than that.
2. [Next] to the cost of [520], light rail looks downright cheap.
Does light rail and can light rail pay for itself? Will its toll-box revenue be enough to pay for itself? (I acknowledge that the Narrows and the future 520 will only partly pay their own way.)
3. The advantage of light rail over other transit modes is that it attracts new ridership to a far greater degree.
And how much is that advantage really worth? And why?
4. There are a variety of reasons for this, including the oft-noted phenomenon known as "rail bias."
Rail bias appears to be true. But if we grant that rail will provide more trips than buses for the same routes, is it worth the cost? And is the imbalance it creates in spending at the expense of roads worth it? This imbalance becomes the over-riding (or should I say the under-riding) issue.
5. [There] is nothing irrational about preferring the advantages of rail over the discomfort and inconvenience of buses.
Just as there is nothing irrational about your average taxpayer preferring the advantages and flexibility of a car to the bus-like inflexibility, bus-like discomfort, and bus-like inconvenience of light rail.
6. Bus rapid transit, unfortunately, is a chimera.
A bus can ride in the dedicated BRT corridor, and then continue to service any number of flexible routes outside that corridor. This is not chimera, this is fact and definition.
7. [Bus] rapid transit is exactly what the detractors of light rail claim to want to avoid: a massive waste of public money with little benefit.
So, if I understand you properly, BRT is a massive waste of public money. But because of rail bias, light rail is only a modest waste of public money.
8. Despite claims by its detractors, Sound Transit will also have a positive environmental impact.
Emory Bundy proved that the impact was extremely negative for tunneled options. I assume you're mainly saying that you believe that impacts are comparatively less negative than for building equivalent road infrastructure.
9. Bundy relies on U.S. Department of Energy statistics that are deeply flawed.
Says who? Apparently not the Department of Energy.
10. They are based on ridership statistics for trains and buses that are far lower than is appropriate for a major metropolitan area: 21.7 passengers per light rail vehicle, 8.7 passengers per bus.
Remember that this is a regional plan, so using down-town Seattle numbers doesn't necessarily make sense elsewhere. Only someday if there is sufficient density. So your deeply flawed numbers are more likely deeply true.
11. [The] tunnels Bundy cites have already been [approved].
Tunnels are nearly always boondoggles. Unions love them. If I recall correctly, Boston's Big Dig was originally going to cost something like $2B and ended up around $13B.
12. [Seattle is] building a comprehensive transit system that provides a variety of attractive options to commuters.
We're getting a starter kit that connects several cities. Not necessarily comprehensive. Better would be to service downtown Seattle, where we already have higher density. Create a truly walkable community with a light rail grid throughout the city. Seattle pays for it, not the hillbillies out on the Eastside with their troglodyte software companies and their decadent Freemanite malls.
Posted Mon, Aug 6, 8:54 a.m. Inappropriate
Take a look at North Virginia: Having moved here 7 years ago from Northern Virginia, the metro orange line between Rosslyn and Ballston served a low density area with acres of parking. As a result of the the rail, zoning was changed, land prices near the stations skyrocketed and high rise condos and high density residential were built. Unless people are morons here, same should happen
Posted Mon, Aug 6, 10:36 a.m. Inappropriate
Where are the rebuttals?????: There are some very strong statements made in the posts above. So, where are the rebuttals to the statements about 350K, to the availability of revenue for tunneling, etc?
Posted Mon, Aug 6, 10:40 a.m. Inappropriate
There's certainly room along international boulevard south of Seatac for much higher density. However, the area is all zoned commercial, and under our tax code, commercial is much better for cities' revenue.
Posted Thu, Aug 9, 5:20 p.m. Inappropriate
A recent case study report from a consultant reveals that of the residents of this corridor within 1/2 mile of the Ballston Metrorail Station, 38% use transit (rail or bus) to get to work, while 51% use cars, either solo driving or carpooling. About 8% of residents walk to work. While the subway is surely the best way to get across the Potomac River to District of Columbia, if a Ballston resident is headed to a suburban job site, a car may very well be faster, even in the lousy traffic found througout the National Capitol Region.
Market-level parking prices for workers in all the office buildings plus the subway suppresses automobile use by workers arriving daily in this corridor. (I couldn't find the mode split for workers who come into this zone to work.) Ballston is considered a prominent transit-oriented-development success, taking several decades to accomplish.
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