The Seattle Times' valuation: A Times reporter rebuts a Crosscut story

The Seattle Times' Eric Pryne, who covers the issues, disputes Bill Richards' Wednesday article on the valuations of the McClatchy Company's minority stake of The Times. With a reply by Richards, and a further response from Pryne.

[Pryne is business reporter for the Seattle Times. This piece also appeared at Letters to Jim Romenesko.] Before Bill Richards suggests the Seattle Times news staff (which in this case means me) is ignoring a big, negative story about the parent company, he should get his facts straight. Richards says we've failed to report a 68 percent decline in the value of The Seattle Times Co. over the past 18 months. He bases his conclusion on two sources: McClatchy's latest quarterly report, which estimates the "carrying value" of its 49.5% interest in The Times at $89.9 million, and a $286 million estimate of the "market value" of that same 49.5% (then owned by Knight Ridder) by Morgan Stanley in late 2005. Those numbers are apples and oranges. For starters, "carrying value" and "market value" aren't always synonymous. McClatchy's Elaine Lintecum, quoted in Richards' story, told me months ago that the carrying value her company had placed on its stake in The Times wasn't necessarily what it thought it would get if it put the asset up for sale. The $286 million Morgan Stanley "market value" figure also is problematic. It isn't what Richards says it is. Richards says it was produced by Morgan Stanley investment bankers advising Knight Ridder when it put itself up for sale. Wrong. It was contained in a table in a November 2005 research report on Knight Ridder by a Morgan Stanley ANALYST, operating independent of the investment bankers. He simply estimated the entire Seattle Times Co.'s market value and multiplied by .495. As Richards himself points out, that methodology is suspect -- the Blethen Corp.'s 50.5% controlling interest in The Times is probably worth a lot more than Knight Ridder/McClatchy's 49.5%. What's more, the Morgan Stanley analyst's estimate hardly represented a consensus: In March 2006 (which was when Knight Ridder was sold, not late 2005 as Richards reports), a Merrill Lynch analyst estimated the value of Knight Ridder's stake in The Seattle Times at "anywhere from $50 million to a couple of hundred million pre-tax," adding that "we have chosen to focus on the low end of the valuation range." She put the pre-tax value of ALL of Knight Ridder's non-Internet equity investments (including The Times, two newsprint mills, and several other companies) at just $250 million. There's no question the market value of The Seattle Times Co. (and other newspaper companies) has dropped significantly in recent years. Advertising revenues have declined. The Times -- and the industry -- are hurting. All this has been reported in the pages of The Times. But Richards' assertion that The Times Co. has lost 68 percent of its value in 18 months stands on a shaky foundation. And his charge that the Times news staff is giving the company a pass is groundless and self-serving. Before we start throwing numbers around, we like to know what they mean. ___ Bill Richards responds: Re: Eric Pryne's note today, criticizing my Crosscut piece this week about reporting on the sinking valuation of The Seattle Times. I think if Pryne looks again, he'll see that our facts are indeed accurate. Both my Crosscut story Wednesday, and a previous Crosscut piece by me on the decline in Times value on April 5 clearly noted the difference between the possible market value of McClatchy's minority stake in the Seattle Times Co. and the book value of that stake. Our story this week is pegged on McClatchy's latest quarterly security filing which says it dropped the book value of its Times holding by 12% since Jan. 1 -- apples to apples, to use Pryne's metaphor. Pryne also seems to have a problem in that I cited Morgan Stanley's Nov. 29, 2005, appraisal of Knight Ridder's holdings, projecting a market value of $286 million for KRI's 49.5% minority share of The Seattle Times Co. He contends that appraisal wasn't connected with Knight Ridder's decision to put itself up for sale, since the sale was concluded in March of 2006, four months after the report was issued. In fact, Knight Ridder announced that it was putting itself up for sale on Nov. 14, 2005, after it hired Morgan Stanley to advise it on that planned sale and two weeks before Morgan Stanley's appraisal was published. In its appraisal, Morgan Stanley noted it used its valuations of Knight Ridder's assets, including its Seattle Times Co. stake, to prepare a discounted cash flow analysis "in an effort to highlight what KRI is potentially currently worth, that is before any takeover…" Pryne also notes that another Merrill Lynch equity analyst placed a less specific value on Knight Ridder's stake in The Times Co. We chose to cite Morgan Stanley's specific market-value number because, as a financial adviser for the proposed Knight Ridder sale, Morgan Stanley had access to information not available to Merrill's analyst. All this, of course, was reported by Crosscut, not the Seattle Times, which is the point. Eric Pryne responds: Richards doesn't address some of my points, and misinterprets others. I don't disagree that The Seattle Times Co. has lost significant value in recent years. I do disagree with Richards' misuse of information in an attempt to quantify that decline, and his criticism of me for failing to do likewise. I reviewed all the same numbers Richards cites before I ever saw his piece, and concluded independently that there wasn't enough substance there to warrant a story. The Seattle Times Co. is very secretive. That's been a challenge and a frustration to me and other reporters covering the company. But that doesn't mean we should weave the bits of information that are available about the company's finances into conclusions that can't be supported. A few final points: -- I never said the November 2005 Morgan Stanley research report on Knight Ridder was unrelated to that company's decision to put itself up for sale - the connection is clearly stated throughout the report. My only point was that Richards got his dates wrong: he said McClatchy bought Knight Ridder in late 2005, when in fact that didn't happen until March 2006. -- Nowhere in his latest piece, or his April story, does Richards point out the difference between carrying value and market value. -- It's legitimate to compare McClatchy's most recent $89.9 million figure for the carrying value for its stake in The Times with its $102.2 million valuation of that interest at the end of 2006, although a 12% drop in the value of any newspaper company these days is hardly breaking news (as Richards notes, McClatchy's stock price has dropped 44% this year). Trouble is, Richards didn't stop there - he compared the latest McClatchy figure with the $286 million "market value" the Morgan Stanley analyst assigned to that same stake in November 2005, and used that to proclaim in his lede that The Times' value had declined by more than two-thirds. As I noted in my initial response, that's an apples-to-oranges comparison. -- If the Morgan Stanley analyst had access to inside information from the Morgan Stanley investment bankers who advised Knight Ridder, as Richards alleges, that would be a breach of the "Chinese wall" that's supposed to prevent conflicts of interest inside big Wall Street firms. What's more, the analyst told the Poynter Institute's Rick Edmonds at the time that the bulk of his report, including most of the numbers, represented "informed speculation" rather than fact. In the entire 32-page report, The Seattle Times Co. merited just once sentence of text and one line in a table.

Topics: Newspapers, Media

About the Author

Eric Pryne is a Seattle Times business reporter.

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Comments:

Posted Thu, Aug 16, 4:39 p.m. Inappropriate

Book value: Any reporting showing a decline in book value is misleading to anyone who doesn't have an accounting background because it reflects historical cost, rather than market value.

If I had bought a rental house in Seattle in 1975 for $50,000 ($40,000 for the building and $10,000 for the land), my rental house would have a book value today of $10,000 -- and it would have lost 80% of its value! Nevermind that the current market value of that house might exceed $750,000.

I tend to agree with Eric. The article may be factually correct, but was misleading.
Bartee

Posted Fri, Aug 17, 3:20 p.m. Inappropriate

Apples to...: This debate has so gotten so technical only an accountant can make sense of it. But I can't help noting one glaring inconsistency in Richards' own defense.

In refuting Pryne's assertion that he was comparing apples [book value] to oranges [market value], Richards says his articles "clearly noted the difference between the possible market value of McClatchy's minority stake in the Seattle Times Co. and the book value of that stake. Our story this week is pegged on McClatchy's latest quarterly security filing which says it dropped the book value of its Times holding by 12% since Jan. 1 -- apples to apples."

And yet the lead of that story -- based on comparing one source's estimate of market value to another source's estimate of book value -- goes like this: "Let's say one of Seattle's major high-profile businesses had lost more than two-thirds of its value over the last 18 months. Would The Seattle Times, which boasts an aggressive business staff, be all over the story? You bet."

That's not exactly what I would call pegging a story to a 12 percent drop.
dheath

Posted Tue, Aug 21, 12:40 p.m. Inappropriate

Puffing it up: Heath is correct. Relevant facts are there in the original piece, but they in no way support the sky-is-falling lede, let alone justify the smarmy, they're-not-telling-you-the-truth-about-themselves insinuation that somehow seems to be required to drip from every one of these Richards pieces. It's great to have a "third party" as it were covering local media and their business affairs. But not if the aim is to bend every known rule of logic, not to mention news judgment, just for the occasional gotcha arrow fired at a former employer. The bigger picture here is worth noting: The stupendous revelation that newspapers are struggling isn't exactly holy-crap-Mabel news, and it doesnt' take a lot of genius or even energy to document the fall. How about a big, in-depth look at the finances behind Crosscut, and whether a Web-only media outlet in one of the most tech-savvy corners of the globe is/can be profitable? We'll know you can walk your own holier-than-thou talk when we see that one.

rjudd

Posted Thu, Aug 23, 9:02 a.m. Inappropriate

Okay, Seattle Times, then what is your actual decline in value?: The main critics here are Seatte Times folks -- Pryne, David Heath and Ron Judd. Methinks they protest too much. Even if they think Richards' numbers might be off, do they deny the decline in value? Where's the Seattle Times story on that? Why not correct what they claim is incorrect? Sheesh. These replies sound like something coming out of the White House press office.

dj

Posted Fri, Aug 24, 8:31 p.m. Inappropriate

Dunno. What's yours?: "DJ": This is a lot to ask, but please read what I wrote. No sane person is denying the drop in market value of newspapers. The point is that a number assigned by a minority, non-controlling interest as the value of that non-controlling interest has only limited bearing, if that, on the actual market value of the company. I have no idea what that "market value" number is, and neither does anyone else, unless it's someone sitting down to write a check to purchase the company. I'm all for aggressive reporting of business affairs of all local media -- as long as it's journalistically credible. If you think this piece's lead premise -- a two-thirds drop in market value -- is credible, maybe you should buy the paper. Helluva deal.

rjudd

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