It's all a plot: The Sonics and Storm will stay in Seattle
The worse things look, the better the chances of a hairbreadth rescue for the team. Here's how the play is diagrammed.
By David Brewster
August 24, 2007.
Stories about pro sports teams, when they get into that give-me-a-new-arena-or-we're-outta-here mode, follow a predictable media trajectory, rather like the stages of grief. Denial, anger (where we are now, with the Seattle SuperSonics), resignation, catharsis. Sports writers must love it, since there's so much melodrama to sustain the story for years, so much civic pride to stoke, so many hairbreadth moments. Even better, the real story is taking place in backrooms to which no reporter has access. That helps breed conspiracy theories to keep the story going years after it's "over."
The hot development in the past week was one sentence uttered by Aubrey McClendon, the mega-rich natural gas mogul who is one of the four main owners of the Oklahoma City group that bought the Sonics and the Storm from Howard Schultz's group last year. "We didn't buy the team to keep it in Seattle; we hoped to come here." Puffing out the Seattle civic chests, all our sportswriters had an a-ha! moment. The Oklahoma City group has been lying all along, when they said they wanted to make it work in Seattle before having to give up and move to another city.
I was kind of hoping Seattle was no longer the kind of place that had to get its jollies by shoving around puny places like Oklahoma City, but apparently we're not, or at least the papers haven't outgrown that temptation. A calmer interpretation would let us see that the Oklahoma City group is obviously split, and one of the owners decided to try to disrupt all this talk about staying in Seattle (or maybe selling) by making his dissidenting view public. And if the Okies are falling apart, it's an opportunity for Seattle to save the team.
Here's how it could happen. First, the Oklahoma City group, led by Clay Bennett, has to realize that they can neither make it work in Seattle, a city whose political culture they don't begin to understand, nor can they get the team to Oklahoma City. So they decide to sell the team to a new Seattle group, at a loss, but at least a loss that is less than what they would lose by bleeding away in Seattle for three more years. The group is then rewarded for this sale by being able to buy either the Memphis Grizzlies (formerly of Vancouver) or the New Orleans Hornets (formerly of Charlotte), since neither is doing well in their small towns and can be purchased for maybe $150 million less than the $350 million cost of the Sonics. Good-guy local owners take over the Sonics and look like geniuses, compared to the Okies, who in turn look like local heroes.
In this narrative, you can begin to see some sense in two other developments this week. One was the NBA announcing a fine for McClendon of $250,000 for shooting off his mouth. (No free speech in the NBA club, in case you were naive enough to think that.) That stiff fine was because the NBA was embarrassed by the way an owner went off script but also as a warning of the kind of money the NBA was going to demand if the team was ever moved to Oklahoma City. Nearly every NBA club owner would hate the idea of losing a major market's television revenues and attendance for such a tiny market. (The Oklahoma City metropolitan region population is 1,172,000, ranking 45th, while Seattle's is 3,263,000, ranking 15th). Solving a problem in New Orleans, whose population is now under 200,000, is one thing, but taking a team out of Seattle is another. So the NBA is applying the pressure.
Second was a story that the Seattle City Council was considering passing a law to bar the Sonics from buying their way out of their lease at KeyArena, which runs to September 2010. Populist grandstanding against wealthy team owners? Of course. But it is also another way of saying to the Oklahoma City folks: How much pain do you want to take? Ditto for Seattle Mayor Greg Nickels' refusal to talk with ownership leader Bennett.
The problem with my narrative is this: How precisely are you going to get a new arena built in the Seattle area? Seattle politicians not only don't want to appear to do any favors for crybaby billionaire owners. They don't want the Sonics to stay and build a fancy new arena and rock and roll palace in the suburbs that will be a financial death sentence to KeyArena and all who work there. Awkwardly, keeping the Sonics in "Seattle" means stiffing the city of Seattle. Next problem is state House Speaker Frank Chopp, who doesn't want any of his Democrats to have to take a dangerous vote for a new arena, which would anger a very loud group of voters even if it scored points with sports fans.
So who's left standing? Chris Gregoire, of course, and the governor has a potentially tight re-election campaign in 2008. It's not just basketball fans who are putting the pressure on the governor. It's the business establishment, which understands how important pro sports are in spreading Seattle's image around the world. In Japan, for instance, the Ichiro-led Mariners are televised every game, all over the country. When Japanese businessmen come calling, perhaps to buy some Boeing planes and work other deals, they get a little dugout moment. Now, imagine this same scenario in China with the Sonics having a Chinese star, playing games in China, and offering some nice little courtside moments. As one leading Seattle businessman put it to me, "Worldwide news about Seattle is usually only bad news, like WTO riots. But nearly every day there's a Seattle story that is positive, and that's coverage of one of our teams."
One can imagine some tough conversations, along these lines: So, governor. How serious are you about maintaining our global competitiveness? How willing are you to take some political heat to solve a difficult problem like siting a new arena? Would you, as a woman, be OK with losing the Storm, which begins a playoff bid tonight? Or are you the kind who punts, as you did with the Alaskan Way Viaduct? And what might your likely 2008 challenger, Dino Rossi, have to offer? And Speaker Chopp, how good would your Democratic majority be if you lose the governorship?
So the catharsis phase could fit right in with the election cycle. It's a very complicated play being diagrammed for the many players. Oklahoma's group has to cry uncle. The NBA has to provide the face-saving consolation team for Oklahoma City. A Seattle area group has to step forward, with leaders that inspire trust. A good site, almost certainly not in the city of Seattle, has to be found. Some politicians have to summon the courage to provide the public subsidy, which can't be egregious and will probably include a payoff to Seattle or Seattle Center. Gregoire has to feel she's in a close election. The outcry over losing the Storm has to sweep through women voters. The Sonics have to start winning, so the public cares about them again.
As I say, these things are never easy. But they sure make a good storyline.
Comments:
Posted Fri, Aug 24, 7:36 a.m. Inappropriate
How bupkis are these scenarios???
History buff that I am, the analogy that immediately comes to mind is America's war against the Barbary pirates in the early 1800's. President Thomas Jefferson, tired of tribute demands from a stateless bunch of brigands, decided to bugger the lot of them by engaging in pre-emptive strikes against their war making, pirate assets. Burn the bastards out, he did, at a higher front end cost than that year's tibute demand, but the lesson was eventually taken seriously, and American merchant ships, unlike their European cousins, ceased being the prey of armed corsairs sailing out of Tripoli (the Marine Hymn line, "...to the shores of Tripoli..." has its genesis in this conflict).
Now, I'm not suggesting that we find ourselves a present-day Lt. Stephen Decauter to lead a disguised team of sailors and Marines (perhaps dressed as point-shaving NBA refs?) to Sonics/Storm team offices in Seattle or Oklahoma City to trash them. A continued and very serious political spit-in-their-eye strategy seems to be working: let them eat sushi in their luxury boxes.
How anyone can seriously suggest that the sale of 787's to anyone might be in jeopardy due to the lack of an NBA franchise in Seattle is beyond me. Somehow I don't think the CEO and board of directors of Garuda International, the national airline of Indonesia (flew it once on a domestic Indonesian flight seated next to a guy who had a fighting cock in a cardboard box under his seat...talk about your carry-on luggage!) give a hoot!
No one person, organization, entity, or industry is indispensable. Whenever any of them have that illusion, they immediately leverage that into blackmail mode, which is what the Sonics/Storm organization have been doing for a long time. To that I say, "Billions for defense, but one one penny for tribute!"
The Piper
Posted Fri, Aug 24, 8:40 a.m. Inappropriate
Personally, I couldn't care less if the Sonics leave, but the Storm has one of the largest fan bases of all WNBA team. I believe at least 3 of the 13 WNBA teams are not affiliated with an NBA team, so let's pull the Storm out from the shadow of the Sonics. I am sure OC would be thrilled to rid themselves of a money loser. . . and Seattle would have a great team that loves their fans and provides great family entertainment!
Let's go Storm!
Posted Fri, Aug 24, 9:02 a.m. Inappropriate
And we would still need a new arena, or a bargain lease with the city. Otherwise we will be raising money until 2010.
Posted Fri, Aug 24, 9:46 a.m. Inappropriate
RE: $15 million?: I'm talking about just buying the Storm, not the Sonics also. WNBA teams DO NOT have to be joined at the hip to a mail team -- look at Connecticut, they don't have an NBA team but they do have a WNBA team. And then we wouldn't need a new arena.
Posted Fri, Aug 24, 12:09 p.m. Inappropriate
There isn't an WNBA game anywhere in this country that draws more that 14,000 people. The Storm are no exception they averaged 7,974 down over 500 from the previous season, and had a peak of 10, 891. They are in the middle of the pack when it comes to attendance, average and peak. They were the leader in terms of the largest drop in attendance this season. I can only wonder why? Could it be because they are likely to leave?
WNBA Attendance
Frankly I could really care less if the Storm stay or go, I have never followed the team that closely. I rarely have time for a Sonics game in the fall and winter, let alone time to sit in KeyArena during the spring and summer for the WNBA. But I don't want them to leave.
It is really frustrating to see "basketball fans" try to divide this issue and try and save one team and not the other. Little ballers need big ballers to look up to, boys and girls, men and women. Let's not be so petty. We might have a chance to save both teams if we work together.
Posted Fri, Aug 24, 12:47 p.m. Inappropriate
Generals need to be able to suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous sports fortunes if they want to stick around. And they need to build and maintain winners. Alas, poor Schultz, and the rest of the Yoricks of that ownership group, we knew them well. They were losers. Sure, they made $150m on their investment, but the public will always, always brand them with the stench of their sale to the invading barbarian hordes from Oklahoma. Public defeat hurts.
Financially, as Brewster points out, there are many options. He reads the tea leaves of the $250K fine quite well. The OK contingent will get their NBA franchise. Both Schultz and the Okie group half-heartedly went through the motions of making the economics work in Seattle by whining for public financing of a new stadium. Schultz wiped his hands of the mess by saying that he wouldn't sell unless he thought that there was still a good chance that the Soncis would stay. But the deal was undercooked and the Okies bought a pig in a poke, so by the time they opened up the poke, the trichinellosis had set in, and the worms were squriming.
The real options for the Okies are 1) to sell the team back to Schultz or some other pork belly merchant, 2) live with the financial stench of buying an overpriced franchise, or 3) ride off into the Oklahoma sunset, swallow the loss, bury the rotting pig, and live happily ever after in the place you call home, but at least with the adoring Oklahoma public at your side.
But what of Seattle? The $250K fine is a sign that the NBA doesn't want to lose Seattle as a franchise city. It won't. Too many wealthy potential heroes live in this city who, having accumulated a pile of money, would love to be local public saviors. Usually it works out. The Mariners and the Seahawks are examples of how that process works.
Ultimately, there will be a deal that allows the Seattle public to kill the current Sonic king (and send him off to Oklahoma with a team) and to crown a new Sonic king. David Stern will act as kingmaker and help to negotiate the terms. The king is dead, long live the king.
Because of the length of the current lease, we have a few years to watch this all play out. Price will be an issue, but the public and financial forces at play are large and inevitable. The final deal will involve a price that makes everyone look smart and shrewd publicly and leaves the Oklahoma contingent whole. The non-price factors are what will drive the shape of the "new" Soncis. Will the Okies take the players and leave the new ownership group with a spankin' new franchise? Where will they play? In all this, the threat of leaving will be squeezed like a turnip to yield as much public blood as possible. This sort of threat doesn't work like it used to, because the public is on to the crocodile tears of the average ownership group. Who the new owners are, whether the current franchise or a new one, and where they'll play are all still mysteries. But the Sonics are staying as sure as Ray Allen's Celtic jump shot is still sweet.
Posted Sun, Aug 26, 9:49 a.m. Inappropriate
Now Halloween is looming and Gumby's sweatrags are all smeared with mustard. Trying to sell tickets for the upcoming season with this poker game-cum-comedy act backstage? Good luck with that. Oh well, the lege returns in January - look for another arena bill to crop up then as everyone tries to keep a straight face. (I'm still betting on an arena referendum in November 2008.) If that fails, which seems likely, then the beat goes on through the end of the lease. How long Gumby wants to keep throwing good money after bad is anyone's guess. Meanwhile, he's taken less and less seriously in Las Vegas and Kansas City, while fans in OKC grimly keep the faith.
I mean, it doesn't get any better than this. You gotta love these guys! (Sorry M's, I know it's your slogan, but you've never matched this performance either.)
Posted Thu, Sep 13, 12:37 a.m. Inappropriate
RE: $15 million?: What's a mail team? They sound dangerous, like they carry guns to work.
Posted Sat, Jun 28, 10:18 a.m. Inappropriate
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