A big day on the presidential campaign trail
A showdown in Florida for Republicans and the endorsement by Democratic Sen. Ted Kennedy could be tipping points. Has Bill Clinton killed his wife's chance to be president?
Editor's note: Seattle-based national political writer Ted Van Dyk is on a book tour and is occasionally reporting from the road on the presidential campaign.
I am presently in Arizona, where TV commercials for both Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are on the air in advance of that state's Feb. 5 piece of the Super Tuesday primaries and caucuses. Gov. Janet Napolitano, who had endorsed Obama, is featured in his commercials. Nothing presently is on the air for former Sen. John Edwards. No winner is apparent, although Clinton has had strong Latino support in the state and was thought the frontrunner – at least until Sen. Ted Kennedy's active involvement for Obama began yesterday. (More on that below.)
The presidential nominating contests overshadowed last night's State of the Union speech by President Bush, the last of his presidency, and made it seem almost a sideshow.
Today's Florida Republican presidential primary is a winner-take-all event which will give the winner a huge injection of fresh money and momentum going into Super Tuesday. With the stakes so high, both Arizona Sen. John McCain and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney have been trading increasingly angry blows. McCain has derided what he sees as Romney's relative inexperience on national security issues; Romney has focused on McCain's past statements conceding his own inexperience on economic and financial issues. McCain, additionally, has raised Romney's ire by characterizing him as a manager and bureaucrat – the kind who can be hired by leaders (as McCain characterizes himself).
Whatever happens today in Florida, McCain and Romney will have the political support and money to proceed competitively through Super Tuesday. Romney has his own fortune. Although McCain minimizes his own resources, his wife has almost as much money as Romney. The Hensley family, McCain's in-laws and prosperous Arizona booze distributors, have largely financed his political career. His wife, now head of the family enterprises, is unlikely to cut off his money supply this near the prize.
Barring an incredible surprise, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani will be down for the count tonight. He and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee are running well behind Romney and McCain and contesting for third and fourth places.
The most important event of the past two days is saved for last: the endorsement of Obama yesterday by Sen. Ted Kennedy, his son, Rep. Patrick Kennedy, and his niece, Caroline Kennedy. Ted Kennedy not only gave a hard-hitting endorsement speech for Obama but addressed head-on the principal charges Sen. Clinton and her husband, former President Bill Clinton, have been making against Obama. He will now hit the road to campaign among Latino, black, and labor voters in key Feb. 5 states. Reportedly, he will visit Idaho on Saturday.
Kennedy was not expected to make any endorsement in the nominating campaign, serving as he does with both Obama and Clinton (and as he once did with Edwards). It came about because of his anger at the Clintons' tactics against Obama in South Carolina last week. Bill Clinton played the race card heavily and clumsily against Obama. Not only Kennedy but a large number of national Democratic leaders were enraged by the tactic. Kennedy called Bill Clinton directly to warn him against such tactics. Hillary's response, when questioned about her husband's statements, was to dismisss them as the enthusiastic defenses of a loving husband.
When Clinton persisted, Kennedy – the unchallenged liberal leader in the Senate and country – decided to endorse and actively campaign for Obama.
An interesting sidebar: When Obama won in South Carolina, it was Bill rather than Hillary Clinton who responded with a concession statement. When Kennedy decided to endorse Obama, he informed Bill rather than Hillary Clinton. This reflects a perception, widely held, that Bill rather than Hillary Clinton really is calling Hillary's shots and that, if elected, he would be trying to do so in a Hillary White House.
There are transforming, determining moments in politics. If Obama now picks up momentum, built on the active support of Kennedy and of key liberal constituencies, and marches to a broad victory on Feb. 5, it will be directly traceable to the moment when the Clintons went over the top in their attacks on Obama – and, in particular, to Bill Clinton's references to race.
Obama may not make a Feb. 5 breakout. But if he does, that will be the reason. Hillary still has time for damage repair, especially if Bill is banished to the provinces. National and key-state polls, at this moment, still show Hillary running strongly. Momentum, however, is now running with Obama.
I personally support Obama and believe he offers both the Democratic Party and country a fresh chance to address issues that have been stalled by political polarization. But I feel sympathy for Hillary Clinton, a tough-minded, intelligent and capable woman with potential for strong leadership. After having betrayed her in their personal lives, Bill Clinton now has betrayed her politically with his undisciplined, low-road exhibitionism during the recent campaign period. The Clintons, long ago, linked themselves inextricably. It is Hillary now who is trapped by the link.
Even if she falls short in this year's campaign, Hillary Clinton surely will continue to be a force in the Senate and in national politics and, who knows, may in time emerge all stronger for what she is now experiencing. But right now, she is wounded and damaged politically.
Tune in tonight for the Florida results. Romney and McCain are running head to head. The winner will emerge a favorite for his party's nomination.
Like what you just read? Support high quality local journalism. Become a member of Crosscut today!
Twitter
Facebook
RSS Feeds
Comments:
Posted Tue, Jan 29, 10:18 a.m. Inappropriate
There's been a lot of commentary on how Bill Clinton's behavior raises the question of just who wears the pants in that family. Hillary's tailored red suits aside, he seems to be running the show, dictating strategy, the head of the household, the man of the house. Whether it's his nature as the world's most famous media hog or his hubris in thinking he's entitled to four or eight more years of power is irrelevent; the net, net, net remains: Bill's in it for Bill.
If Hillary is the nominee, there will be a lot of voters - in the millions, no doubt - who will make their decision for President based upon this single premise: It's been since 1992 that we've had a President who isn't a member of either the Clinton or Bush family; do I want that string to stretch to nearly a quarter-century?
Ohmygawd, NO!
This isn't an endorsement of Barack Obama; his policies are a one-way ticket to an America only Eugene V. Debs or Noam Chomsky could love. But the throught of Hail to the Hillary Chief? In the words of Chester A. Riley, "What a revolting development this turned out to be!"
Hillary Clinton is a galvanizing figure, only what she galvanizes is opposition, not support. The ony True Believer faction supporting her is NOW, which has castigated most shrilly Teddy Kennedy's endorsement of Brack Obama as a betrayal of women.
Of women? I thought we're electing a President of the United States, not the ultimate chair of the League of Women Voters.
In the meantime, and no matter who is elected in 2008, those on the far left will remain disappointed and embittered just as they were when Bill Clinton was elected President. Why? The issues and the empirical necessities aren't subject to wishing upon an ideological star. Solutions and approaches will be negotiated with compromise, and troops in very large number will remain in Iraq. Camelot was an illusion in the early 60's, and there's no reason to think the same isn't true today.
Reality bites, people!
The Piper
Posted Tue, Jan 29, 12:03 p.m. Inappropriate
1. The media itself is very much down on Bill Clinton, and are leading the charge against his antics. This doesn't bode well for Hillary.
2. Youth are EXTREMELY motivated by Obama, including even those serving in Iraq. Obama speaks to their generation, if not their ideological views. (It might be interesting to get Piper's perspective from his own sons in the military.)
3. George Bush is so much a lame duck President that he's essentially irrelevant and radioactive to any discussion of the future. This is nothing we all don't already know, but the Democrats gain immensely from Republicans not having reasonable coat-tails to follow. In the general election, McCain's support for the war and the surge may not be fatal, but would be a strong negative.
4. The frequent conflation of the Bush and Clinton "dynasties," resonates with people (as with Piper above), in spite of the stark contrast in the ideologies and success of each dynasty.
5. The economy has become the main issue of the campaign, with Iraq of lesser importance. I expect that Iraq will become a subordinate issue in the general election when people will generally want to know why we don't hand over security to the Iraqis and spend the billions in Iraq at home.
6. In terms of improving our standing in the world, the example of electing a black President (with maybe a female veep) will speak volumes to those countries where everyone is not white and where women are oppressed. Obama operates as a person whose skin color doesn't matter, which is what America is supposed to stand for.
7. Obama's evoking of JFK could galvanize the Democratic faithful. As Caroline Kennedy said, ""I have never had a president who inspired me the way people tell me that my father inspired them. [Obama] could be that president -- not just for me, but for a new generation of Americans."
She might as well have said "Ask not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for your country" to the older generation once again. Many current parents remember their own youthful idealism represented by JFK (and their own "Greatest Generation" parents), and would welcome their children sharing a similar idealism. So in this sense, the Caroline endorsement may be a catalytic cross-gnerational band-wagon event.
If all this plays out as the points above indicate, Obama may be a force of nature that there is little that Hillary can do to counter. Sure, she can send Bill to the woodshed. But she's no JFK. Obama is. And if Obama is the Return of the JFK Jedi, then that suggests Landslide Obama and a mandate for Obama to execute, no matter how little experience he has.
(As part of that mandate I'd recommend that he has his female veep organize healthcare reform, and that he appoint her husband ambassador to Iraq...)
Posted Tue, Jan 29, 12:37 p.m. Inappropriate
A couple points...
In re my sons...The staff sergeant - he being a journalist working now as a staff reporter/photographer for Stars & Stripes after a tour in Iraq, Kuwait, and several weeks in the 'stan - tells me politics is mostly a taboo subject.
Effectively, there's nothing soldiers and Marines can do about it, so why argue? Instead, they talk of girls, cars, movies, music, video games, and girls in essentially that order.
My Marine son is a bit more outspoken, though even he tends to be more personal in his perspective. His current thing is a pending trip to Iwo Jima to sleep on its black sand beach and pay homage to WW II gyrenes, then a training excercise in the Philippines. He focuses on his job and being the best Marine he can be (he needs to lose 16 pounds in order to make corporal), and the occupant of the Oval Office isn't his highest priority.
As to Bush the lame duck? Reports of his political funeral have been widely exagerated. Since the 2006 election, he's been very adept at frustrating the excesses of Reid/Pelosi all the while advancing his own Iraq agenda, the surge being a prime example. All the lame duck talk comes from those in the MSM who have underestimated him at every turn.
BTW...in my first post, I mis-spoke on dates. Instead of 1992, it should be 1989 since we've had other than a Bush or a Clinton. Apologies for the error.
The Piper
Posted Tue, Jan 29, 2:17 p.m. Inappropriate
To paraphrase a famous line,: ...It's Bill Clinton, stupid. In his mind everything is about Bill Clinton. He's the bride at every wedding and the corpse at every funeral. He's the center of the universe. He's so damned fascinating that he can talk about nothing else for hours. It's nice to see that Democrats are finally waking up and realizing that we're in for four years of this stuff if Hillary wins. If she can't rein him in now, what hope does she have in a White House where loyalties are bound to be divided. It will be Billy Carter time all over again, but this time Billy will be co-president.
Login or register to add your voice to the conversation.