Why Sen. Barack Obama's campaign has lost traction

Both media and even veteran campaigners have been asking the same question recently regarding the presidential race: Why is Sen. John McCain staying so close to Sen. Barack Obama in national polls?

The last Gallup Poll — the most historically reliable all of all polls — had the two in a virtual dead heat.

Here is my own take on what is happening:

Fundamentals favor Obama

All polls point to a decisive Democratic victory in congressional races this fall. The outoing Bush-Cheney administration is unpopular. Housing/credit/energy/food price problems have voters understandably worried about the economy, which is the salient issue this fall.

Obama, as his nominating campaign unfolded, was seen to be energizing young voters. His basic message, reaching across partisan and ideological lines, drew independents and moderate Republicans. Obama raised record amounts of campaign money in the nominating period and maintains a fundraising lead over McCain. Voters registering as Republicans have diminished substantially nationally. McCain's campaign thus far has been lackluster. McCain himself has seemed tentative and unexciting in his appearances.

A strong tide is running for change. All of these factors, taken together, could be expected to have Obama at a double-digit lead over McCain at this point.

Why is McCain staying so close?

I do not believe, as many seem to do, that unpoken racism accounts for the close race. There surely are a few Americans who do not like the idea of a bi-racial president. But, it seems to me, the energizing of the African-American comunity and of young voters should more than compensate for that factor.

Nor do I believe that McCain's campaign commercials, casting doubt on Obama's experience, are the reason. Candidates of both major parties can be expected to concentrate, especially early in the campaign period, on their opponent's weaknesses so as to define him negatively. Obama, for his part, has been mischaracterizing McCain's stance on energy policy. Unless the campaigns are dealing in outright lies, this is what can be expected on both sides.

The reason for the closeness is that Obama has allowed himself to be the issue. This is a syndrome which is difficult for a candidate to escape.

Obama needs to clarify himself

Obama's international tour helped him gain a better grasp of global issues and also drew overwhelmingly favorable media coverage. Yet it did not result in an upward bump in his poll ratings.

Partly this was because voters generally place greater confidence in McCain in national security/foreign policy than they do in Obama. National security, in campaign terms, is McCain's issue. The economy and domestic policy are Obama's issues.

To the degree that campaign dialogue centers around international and national security issues, McCain thus gains.

The most extreme example of this syndrome came during the 1972 Nixon-McGovern campaign. Voters were dissatisfied with the continuance of the Vietnam War and the economy was flat. Yet President Richard Nixon was more greatly trusted by voters to deal with national security/foreign policy issues than was Sen. George McGovern. Thus, the more McGovern challenged Vietnam policy — quite properly — the more Nixon climbed in the polls. McGovern (and Democrats in general) were more generally trusted to conduct domestic and economic policy. But, there, McGovern's stumbing on a negative income-tax issue neutralized his advantage. Thus Nixon, in the end, carried every state but Massachusetts, even though the war and the Watergate scandal could have been expected to weigh him down.

There were other factors contributing to McGovern's loss, of course, including his selection and rejection of Sen. Tom Eagleton as his running mate and the defection of what later would be called Reagan Democrats on the basis of social issues. But the point is this: Any candidate must concentrate on his/her issues — in 2008, for Obama, the state of the economy — and not on the opponent's issues (in 2008, national security/foreign policy).

Obama's international trip, and his subsequent statements, have given him sufficient bona fides on foreign policy to be credible there. But he will never be more credible to voters than former POW/career Navy officer McCain.

If it were possible for him to do so, Obama should spend every day through Labor Day talking solely about economic and domestic issues. In fall general-election debates, he will of course be called on to debate McCain strongly and convincingly on overseas issues. He cannot stumble then. But he need only hold his own with McCain on such issues.

The candidates' personas

McCain is 25 years older than Obama. He has been on the national scene for a long period and became a national figure with his 2000 Republican nominating campaign against President Bush. Voters think they know him, although they really know only some aspects of him.

Obama has had a relatively brief career, in the Illinois state Senate and, then, the U.S. Senate. He is not well established. Beyond that, there lie in the background questions about his pastor, his principal Illinois financial backer, his relationship with 1960s radicals, and his constancy on issues where he has adjusted his positions since the nominating period.