Why Sen. Barack Obama's campaign has lost traction
McCain has background questions, too, about his sources of financing, his relationship with former saving-and-loan king Charles Keating, and some shocking pleadings on behalf of national and Arizona special interests. Yet these are discounted by voters because they think they already know McCain.
Because of the public sympathy McCain draws because of his former POW status, Obama must tread carefully in attacking him. Because of public sensitivity to any race-related implication, McCain must tread carefully in attacking Obama. But attacks relating to qualifications and experience are OK with voters. McCain has learned this.
Over the past three weeks, Obama has allowed himself to become the issue. His experience, his associations, his core values, his policy positions all have been questioned by McCain and by hostile media.
A candidate who allows himself — and not the substantive issues in the campaign — to become the issue can get stuck in a deep ditch.
Obama needs to watch some tape
Voters, too, are seeing a different Obama than the one they saw entering the nominating campaign. His calls for change, his "Yes we can!" optimism, and his message that Americans could reach across partisan and ideological lines to solve unresolved problems excited voters across the spectrum.
If you view tapes of Obama's appearances then, and his appearances now, you will see two Obamas.
The early Obama was confident, non-ideological, non-partisan, and a unifier. Obama's crowds still remain large. But they are less electric. Partly because he was forced to shift gears, in the nominating campaign against Sen. Hillary Clinton, he now speaks less as a unifier reaching beyond old boundaries and more as a traditional partisan liberal. The words coming from Obama now could just as easily be the words of Hillary Clinton, 2008, or those of Sens. John Kerry and John Edwards in their 2004 campaign. They contain strong anti-corporate overtones with particularly shrill attacks on the oil industry. (On Monday, Aug. 4, Obama proposed that oil industry "windfall profits" be taxed and that each individual taxpayer be given a $1,000 rebate immediately. It was a proposal sure to draw applause from Michael Moore and disaffected hard-core Democrats, but, to most others, transparent grandstanding doing little to address the immediate need to consume less and produce more energy.) McCain, surprisingly, finds himself on stronger political and economic sides of the issue by espousing an "all the above" strategy attacking the problem on multiple fronts. And Obama thus finds himself dissipating his natural advantage on economic/domestic issues.
Obama's body language, too, has changed. The confident, inspiring early leader has given away to an often hesitant, sometimes-eye-shifting candidate trying to one-up his opponent, news cycle by news cycle.
All of this feeds the McCain effort to present Obama as uncertain and inexperienced.
Obama is not ready to enter intensive care. He still must be rated the favorite in November. But in the weeks before the Democratic convention, he badly needs to take a first-principles review of the issues he is stressing and his manner of presentation.
There is one other factor which could work against Obama. Outside the African-American community, his strongest support is among young voters. Young voters canvass, turn out for rallies, and lend excitement to the campaign. But on election day, they notoriously vote in percentages lower than any other voting group. Obama's campaign must keep them energized and engaged. They should see "Yes we can!" as relating directly to them.
Obama is convincing when he is large and strategic, not small and partisan. Right now he is trapped in daily exchanges of partisan combat, which diminish him. Time to get back to where he started and to recapture an initiative he has lost.
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Comments:
Posted Tue, Aug 5, 5:52 p.m. inappropriate
But when the ads do lie...: Don't McCain's claims that Obama wouldn't visit wounded soldiers because the Pentagon wouldn't let him bring in cameras, that Obama wants to tax electricity, that Obama supported raising taxes for those earning only $32,000 a year, and that Obama wants to raise the taxes of 23 million small business owners all count as the "outright lies" you were referring to? McCain has made all four claims in his ads, and all four are verifiably false and the McCain campaign continued them after becoming aware of their falseness.
Posted Tue, Aug 5, 11:32 p.m. inappropriate
Um, Obama is polling way ahead of McCain: The latest Gallup poll puts Obama 4% ahead of McCain. In an actual election, a 4% margin would be considered a decisive defeat. If 4% is not statistically significant, that's a problem with the sample size of the poll, not the size of the margin.
Moreover, Ipsos' latest poll released yesterday puts Obama 9% points ahead of McCain. That's the same margin of victory Reagan had in his "landslide" win over Carter in 1980.
I must be missing something, because I can't see how you conclude from the polls that Obama is "losing traction".
Posted Wed, Aug 6, 9:25 a.m. inappropriate
here's a good roundup of critiques of obambi: http://www.truthdig.com/
report/item/20080722_obama_on_the_brink/
"To ask whether this paean to Reagan was merely political calculation begs the question. Obama is largely made up of political calculation. To inquire as to where his weighing up the advantages of this or that position ends and his "core beliefs" begin is a futile undertaking."
"http://www.wsws.org/articles/2008/aug2008/
obam-a05.shtml
This provides the opportunity for Obama to indulge in his specialty–empty generalities, vague commitments that commit him to nothing, "feel-good" phrase-mongering.
US presidential hopefuls are selected, vetted, molded in a complex and time-consuming process. The ruling elite faces life-and-death questions and is not about to allow just anyone to take up residence in the White House. He, or she, must be prepared to make the most ruthless decisions.
In the event anyone has delusions about what Obambi the latent Masai warrior's warring on in Waziristan will mean: here's the link to a first rate piece by tariq aziz:
http://www.newleftreview.org/?page=article&view;=2713
van dyke is right, Obama, has "moved to the center" and sounds just like the same old same old, he of course had little choice being who he is, everyone [the young especially] got fooled by the "hope" b.s. the worst drug going next to belief in god. read today's aug 6 wed new york times on where his money is coming from and who is bundlers are. it's just a different bunch of gangsters who "want ours now" in "contract on america" New Gingrich's so candid words.
if the country really wanted change, it would need to be fundamental rearrangement of power and wealth structure without stunting its entrepreneurial spirit, and that would be Kucinich, who is always moved off stage by the media. Obambi is just the newest hoolahoop boy toy for the media and "the people", the f forever benighted sheeples.
Report this
Posted Wed, Aug 6, 10:21 a.m. inappropriate
The economy is Obama's strength?: The only economic policy I've heard Obama expound is tax increases for everyone. Gas too expensive? Tax the oil companies! Not enough new jobs? Tax the entrepreneurs! Young people struggling to start their careers? Increase Social Security taxes! At least McCain has one advantage over Obama when it comes to the economy: McCain admits he knows nothing about economics.
Posted Wed, Aug 6, 2:13 p.m. inappropriate
I'm proud of you, Ted!: You wrote a whole post without mentioning Sound Transit!
Posted Tue, Aug 12, 1:46 a.m. inappropriate
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Posted Tue, Aug 12, 5:20 p.m. inappropriate
Stop asking those nasty questions!: Obama looked great...until McCain raised the real issues that the press omitted and exposed the shallowness of the whole Democrat nomination.