An Alaska-sized gamble — and possibly a brilliant one

Our grizzled national political writer, an Obama supporter, found himself rooting for Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin during her coming-out party. Her choice by Sen. John McCain could be a game-changer — if she doesn't make any big mistakes between now and the election.

Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska.

Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska.

My reaction to Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin's selection as the Republican vice-presidential nominee were undoubtedly similar to that of most others with a background in national politics.

When considering a running mate, a presidential nominee normally would ask these questions:

  • Is this person qualified, on the basis of knowledge and experience, to succeed to the presidency on short notice if called on to do so?
  • Would this person be able to hold his/her own with the opposition party's vice-presidential nominee in a nationally televised debate?
  • Does this person complement or shore up my own vulnerabilities (in policy, geography, among key constituencies) going into the fall campaign?
  • Would this person help me carry one or more key electoral states I otherwise might lose?
  • Would I feel comfortable and compatible with this person during not only the campaign but in the White House?

At first glance, the answers to those questions would have left Palin an also-ran among better known, strong possibilities such as former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge, Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, and several others. Romney, I had thought, would be the wisest choice since he had proved a strong vote-getter in the primary season, had economic/financial knowledge McCain lacked, had governed successfully in a heavily Democratic state, and also was likely to at least hold his own in one-on-one faceoffs with Democratic vice-presidential nominee and seasoned Sen. Joe Biden.

The Obama campaign's first reaction to the Palin choice was to issue a condescending, dismissive press release mocking her experience and credentials.

McCain, I thought, had just made his first important decision as presidential nominee and blown it. I began mentally formulating jokes and one-liners:

  • This would be a titanic struggle between Hawaii (Sen. Barack Obama's home state) and Alaska for control of the Lower 48.
  • Palin was chosen because Alaska's three electoral votes matched those of Delaware (Biden's home state).
  • In a dramatic move, Palin, a high-school basketball star, might challenge Obama to one-on-one hoops or perhaps a matchup of her state-championship high-school team with Obama's Hawaii prep-school squad.
  • McCain, celebrating his 72nd birthday and a cancer survivor, wanted a relatively unknown and inexperienced 44-year-old running mate to underscore his own risk-taking temperament.

And so on.

Then I Googled Palin's background and began to learn more about her. As I did, I sobered up.

Here was a self-made woman with political and leadership skills. In a state known for corruption, she had — as a mayor, chair of a state commission, and governor — faced down at every stage the good-ole-boy network accustomed to running things. She had beaten better known candidates in her campaigns for office. She had called out and fired public officials for corruption. She had successfully taken on corporations, lobbyists, and special-interest types when they challenged her. She was pro-life and an NRA member but, nonethless, known for acknowledging the good faith of those who disagreed with her. Her husband, a commercial fisherman and pipeline worker, was a Steelworker. Palin herself was a former union member. They have five children, the oldest on his way to Iraq as an Army enlisted man, the youngest a Down Syndrome baby. Her parents, a teacher and school secretary, were hard working people who earned extra money by coaching school teams. She chaired a 50-state governors' natural resources committee. As McCain, she was known for speaking her mind directly and breaking with Republican party-line positions when she thought they were wrong. She was aggressive and smart as hell.

Then I witnessed the rally in Dayton, Ohio, at which McCain introduced her. She was more poised than McCain. She was direct, no-nonsense, speaking to constituencies beyond the Republican base, and clearly at home with herself and her role. She appealed to Sen. Hillary Clinton supporters to come on over and break the glass ceiling with her. I found myself rooting for her — just as I had for Obama and Biden the night before — as an underdog and outsider living out the American Dream. If I felt that way, I thought, millions of others might be having the same thoughts at that moment.

So. What seemed at first glance an improbable, out-of-the-blue political gamble — and perhaps a world-class blunder — began to appear to be a gamble, alright, but perhaps a brilliant one. The Obama campaign will issue more condescending put-downs at its peril.

Palin remains a huge risk. She could, during the campaign, blow up everything by displaying ignorance on a major issue in a debate with Biden or elsewhere. She pronounces, I noticed, nuclear as "nucular," same as President Bush after eight years in the White House.

Yet, if Palin proves credible and competent, she could provide a boost to the Republican ticket that no other candidate could. Her plain-roots background matches those of Obama and Biden. She knows and understands the Reagan Democratic and blue-collar voters who hesitated about Obama in the Democratic nominating contest. She will attract votes from women — no one knows how many — who might see Palin as their standard-bearer in the absence of Hillary Clinton from the Democratic ticket. One could see her having an appeal in the same middle-American constituencies to which Biden appeals. A McCain-Palin western ticket might give several percentage points to Republicans west of Kansas City. Even our own state of Washington might be put unexpectedly in play. Only California and Hawaii — if Palin proves to be the real thing — can be counted on with confidence by Obama-Biden.

Alaska's feisty, independent, plain-spoken, person-to-person politics will be quite familiar to Washingtonians pre-dating this state's high-tech, urbanized era.

Bottom line: If Palin is up to it, she should be a huge help to McCain. If not, McCain truly did blow the election this morning. In the short term, McCain successfully changed the subject only hours after Democrats' rousing Denver triumph. He will be having us watch next week's Republican convention, if only to watch and learn more about Palin.


About the Author

Ted Van Dyk has been involved in, and written about, national policy and politics since 1961. His memoir of public life, Heroes, Hacks and Fools, was published by University of Washington Press. You can reach him in care of editor@crosscut.com.

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Comments:

Posted Fri, Aug 29, 12:32 p.m. Inappropriate

Choice of Palin not to be dismissed: Ted Van Dyk's comments are wise, as usual. Karl Rove's proteges are running the McCain campaign, and the Palin choice makes a great deal of tactical sense in the Rovian universe. Since she is regarded as a movement conservative, the choice may energize the prized Christian right "base" at the heart of Rove's campaigns. The base has not been notably enthused about McCain up to now, and this provides a good boost going into the convention.

Also, the choice presents new possibilities of distracting, discouraging or destroying the opposition, another Rove trademark. Consider the experience issue. On the one hand, it would seem to hurt McCain by taking away his strongest criticism of Obama. But, in Rove logic, it opens an attack line to compare her relative youth and inexperience of with that of Obama. After all, she's only the vice presidential nominee, but Obama would be president, rather than the wise sage McCain. This may seem far-fetched, but attack ads are only occasionally reality based.

Another benefit of the Palin choice is that it diverts the MSM, not just from Obama but from McCain. As Frank Rich has been pointing out in the New York Times, major journalistic organizations have yet to give McCain's record the kind of scrutiny they've given Obama's. Sending the watchdogs off after Palin further delays the moment when the inconsistencies and contradictions of McCain's record, political and ethical, are spotlighted in the press, if indeed they ever are.

Writing off the Palin choice as a Dan Quayle-like blunder could be a serious mistake for the Democrats.
Duckdog

Posted Fri, Aug 29, 2:03 p.m. Inappropriate

_: Both McCain and Palin have ethics scandals to worry about. Palin's firing scandal is a window into her maturity level. McCain's major scandal is well-known decades after the fact, and he hasn't paid for it yet the way he soon will.

Palin will attract some people, but her right-wing views will scare a lot of the moderates McCain is hoping to attract. Basically she moves the ticket to the right. That's good for Obama.

As for "experience", I'll take someone who's been on the national stage and dealt with national issues, and had decades of real leadership, like Obama.
mhays

Posted Fri, Aug 29, 2:49 p.m. Inappropriate

Van Dyk P.S.: Don't get me wrong. I still think McCain should have selected Romney, because he seemed to me the Republican best prepared substantively and politically to assume the presidency, if events caused him to do so. That should have trumped all other considerations.

On the other hand, I thought McCain was audacious in the high-risk selection of Palin who, if she proves up to the job, could shake things up in the presidential race.
I have looked further into her record since writing my piece and find she has a somewhat broader experience, and knowledge, than might have been initially apparent. For one thing, her knowledge of energy issues---at center stage both internationally and domestically---probably equals or surpasses that of any of the national candidates.

Palin's presence on the GOP ticket will not cause me to change my own vote. I support strongly the Obama-Biden ticket. But it could change others' votes.
That is the point.

Posted Fri, Aug 29, 4:22 p.m. Inappropriate

RE: Van Dyk P.S.: Bush and Cheney were knowledgeable on energy issues too. They're all for the oil industry.

mhays

Posted Fri, Aug 29, 5:05 p.m. Inappropriate

RE: _: Firing scandal? Do you mean the one where before she ran for Governor in 2005 Sarah Palin and her family reported the illegal behavior of Trooper Wooten, who was going through a divorce with Palins sister? The scandal where he was suspended for 5 days for drinking in his patrol car. He was reported for illegal hunting, and trying to taser his 11 year old step son ( Palin's nephew). He also reportedly threatened to kill Palin's father ( Anchorage Daily News, August 14th 2008 ). Gee Hays who wouldn't want that guy working as a State Trooper...apparently you and the Obama supporters.

Cameron

Posted Fri, Aug 29, 5:33 p.m. Inappropriate

RE: _: At this point all we have are "spun" versions. That's why the investigation is ongoing, and that's why I said "potential". Either way, she used her power to attempt to override the typical authority which sounds questionable.

mhays

Posted Sat, Aug 30, 12:19 a.m. Inappropriate

RE: _: She and her family reported the Wooten before she even ran for Governor. She asked the head of the Department of Public Safety why he was still employed as a trooper after she was elected..It sounds like a reasonable question. Would you want this fellow on your security detail? How much interest would you have in seeing typical authority do its job, if a cop said he was going to kill a member of your family?

Cameron

Posted Sat, Aug 30, 2 p.m. Inappropriate

Great diversionary tactic: "She pronounces, I noticed, nuclear as "nucular," same as President Bush after eight years in the White House."

Them of us who grew up in the west---in sight of the nukes at Fairchild Air Force Base in Spokane, the reactors at Hanford, the subs at Bangor, and Air Force installations in Alaska---thanks in no small part to Scoop Jackson's role in getting military largesse for our state---find it easy to morph "nuked" into nukular. Insanity, we still pronounce the same as you.

That's the brilliance of this pick. As in years past, the Democrats will focus on a relatively weak Vice-Presidential candidate, however minor the failing, forgetting that the vote is not foremost about who is a heart beat away from the Presidency, but whose heart is beating as President. Thus, Sarah Palin takes heat and scrutiny away from McCain, as the Democrats run against George Bush--who is not on the ballot--and Sarah Palin. Republicans pummel Obama, McCain is left to look good, and get elected. Palin is not a smart move, Palin is a brilliant move.

To underrate her ability, linguistic or otherwise, is just as insane as underrating the poor use of the English language itself by George Bush, if what you really care about is his ability, or the ability of his advisers, or Sarah Palin, or Karl Rove, to get someone--himself or herself or whomever--elected President, with his or her finger on the nuclear button, however you may mispronounce it.

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