Little Mo builds on the Guvometer
Three minor events and some media breaks earn Gov. Chris Gregoire one more click on the Crosscut (not-exactly-scientific) measuring device.
One more nudge of the needle in the Democratic direction this week, as something like "Little Mo" seems to be developing. Small things, but they add up:
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First is a story in The Seattle Times comparing Gov. Chris Gregoire and Republican challenger Dino Rossi on climate change, which gives the governor two good lines of attack. Rossi quibbles about how much climate change is man-made, which betrays an anti-scientific, pro-religious stance that has Bush overtones. Not good in this state. Second is Rossi's claim, which his staff had trouble backing up, that building more highway lanes will reduce pollution (since cars won't be stalled as much). According to the reporting in the story, the studies cited by Rossi staffers say this reduction in carbon emissions is only true if you don't allow more cars on the new lanes. Rossi needs to sound sensible on the environment to appeal to many educated suburban voters. And playing fast and loose with the scientific claims now takes on a Palin echo.
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Then comes the latest Stuart Elway poll, seemingly way out of line with other polls and therefore getting attacked and getting more attention. The poll puts Gregoire ahead, 51-39, while most polls show Rossi and Gregoire knotted at 48-48. Maybe overstated, but it helps give Gregoire an air of invincibility. The other figure from Elway puts Obama ahead in the state, 55-36, an indication of the Obama surge coming to local polls and likely to benefit the Democrat (and early Obama endorser).
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The last point is the way pundits are battling over the question of the Obama-Rossi voter, explored by my colleague Clark Fredericksen nearby. There clearly will be such voters, hoping to be rid of Bush and Olympia Democrats, and wanting to play a little balance-of-power, hedge-your-vote politics. That the debate is being joined early gives Gregoire advocates a chance to meet it head on and make the case for an Obama-Gregoire alliance. Subtext: federal pork will start rolling in these tough times. Dare I say earmarks?
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Comments:
Posted Wed, Oct 22, 5:17 p.m. Inappropriate
Well you just cannot seem to make up your mind can you David. Do you want to do a RepMeter on the the Burner- Riechert Race too? Now that Darcy has to come clean about her Harvard experience.
Posted Wed, Oct 22, 6:22 p.m. Inappropriate
As to climate change, like with a lot of issues, it doesn't matter. Gregoire is not fit for the job, and never has been no matter how superior her positions might be. Rossi is a Bush clone, but, he is smarter than Bush and he has a chance at getting it right, especially with a Democratic legislature that will hold each accountable - a 'hot' environment where Rossi has proved himself able.
As I understand it Elway polls reliably show a Democratic bias, though don't quote me on that.
The Obama factor is real - Obama will bring voters to the ticket that would not otherwise show up who will end up voting for Gregoire. Polling is not reliable with these folks, and it will give Gregoire an edge.
However, there is a flip side to the Obama factor - and it's not pollster hidden racism, but rather polster hidden awareness of the abusive sexism of Gregoire and her crew. This factor may well be much higher than it was in 2004, given the fact that Rossi is accurately and widely viewed as having a real shot at winning.
Sorry, Mr. Brewster, but it is still very definitely a toss-up. And, as far as I'm concerned Ms. Gregoire should be prevented from taking office, even if she wins, on the basis of the law she and her 'generation' themselves have manifested.
In any case, our best hope for quality leadership in this State is a holding of the feet of Rossi to the fire via the legislature and people like AG McKenna and State Auditor Brian Sonntag.
Posted Fri, Oct 24, 8:37 a.m. Inappropriate
If you look at the other races in the latest Elway poll, it would be hard to argue that Stuart's polling has a Democratic bias, or any bias at all. I've always regarded Elway as a Republican with a strong non-partisan foundation when it comes to his polling.
However, other evidence does indicate the race is closer than the latest Elway sample, although Gregoire leads in all. It does appear that Elway's methods are more reasonably well founded than any other these other polls. He seems to be the only pollster carefully reaching out to people who will actually vote and who is asking the right key question.
Rossi may have also stumbled this week by announcing that he would defer his transportation plan and his plan to eliminate the estate tax. What took him so long? He's been advertising the challenges of the next state budget for many months. The Rossi deferrals come with no plan B on transportation. He's effectively saying: wait for better times on transportation. His lame support for the budget busting I-985 does not appear to be part of the deferral. It gets harder to take him seriously.
On his plus side, Rossi's TV ads appear to be pretty good. Maybe better than Gregoire's.
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