Humor: Bleakonomics, one year later
A repeat of last February's primer on Bushonomics, when the apparent solution to our economic problems was to create more of whatever caused them. Bears repeating today, alas.
By unpopular demand, we're re-running Flip Side's essay of a year ago. — Editor.
My wife wants to understand economics.
Judith: How did the United States get into such economic trouble?
Steve: First, the Federal Reserve Board kept interest rates low. This encouraged people to borrow money and buy houses at inflated prices.
Judith: And second?
Steve: Second, due to the Bush tax cuts and the war in Iraq, the federal government ran up huge deficits.
Judith: And third?
Steve: Third, banks and mortgage brokers loaned money to people who could not pay it back. Then the banks sliced, diced, repackaged, securitized, and re-securitized these mortgages into complex debt instruments that they sold to each other.
Judith: Is that all?
Steve: No. Through the genius of the free market, the banks dug themselves into a deeper hole by selling credit default swaps on worthless debt. You'll be hearing a lot about this soon.
Judith: How could bankers have been so dumb?
Steve: Because they cared only about annual bonuses and quarterly earnings. And they weren't so dumb. In 2006, Stanley Neal of Merrill earned $46 million and Charles Prince of Citigroup $26 million. Last year their shareholders lost tens of billions.
Judith: How will we get out of this mess?
Steve: First, the Federal Reserve will apply monetary stimulus.
Judith: What does that mean?
Steve: It means they will lower interest rates.
Judith: Wasn't that what started the problem?
Steve: You don't understand economics. Second, the Federal government will apply fiscal stimulus.
Judith: What is that?
Steve: They will borrow hundreds of billions, give it to people, and hope they spend it fast.
Judith: But you said deficits were one cause of the present economic problem.
Steve: You don't understand economics. The hope is that fiscal and monetary stimulus will avert a credit crunch. Then lenders will start lending again and borrowers will borrow again.
Judith: But too much borrowing created the problem.
Steve: You don't understand economics. Once we escape a credit crunch, the profit motive and unregulated markets will work their magic.
Judith: I'm confused. You say we got into this mess because federal deficits were too high, interest rates were too low, lenders were lending too much, and borrowers were borrowing too much, and the unregulated free market went crazy pursuing short-term profits. Now you say we will get out of the mess by increasing deficits, reducing interest rates, spurring lenders and borrowers to run up more debts, and leaving everything to the profit motive and unregulated markets. What am I missing?
Steve: You are missing the theory of Homeopathic Economics. It based on the "Hair of the Dog That Bit You" principle. Doing more of what created the problem will cure the problem.
Judith: How does Homeopathic Economics work?
Steve: Consumer spending accounts for more then 70 percent of GDP. The whole economy depends on consumer spending. A Homeopathic stimulus package will keep the consumers spending.
Judith: But aren't consumers already spending too much? Doesn't the country as a whole spend 7 percent more than it makes? Isn't this why we run an $800 billion current account deficit? Shouldn't we be increasing savings and reducing spending?
Steve: You don't understand economics. Cutting consumer spending by 7 percent would create a deep recession. So consumers must keep consumers spending. They can finance their spending by borrowing more.
Judith: Consumer credit card debt and household mortgage debt have both doubled since Bush took office. The average American owes over $8,000 in credit card debt. How much more debt can consumers bear? This sounds like a Ponzi scheme. What happens when the house of cards collapses?
Steve: No one is worried about that because there will be a new president, a new fed chairman, and a new congress before it collapses. It will be someone else's problem.
Judith: Well I'm worried.
Steve: You shouldn't be. We'll be OK.
Judith: How's that?
Steve: With a little bit of luck, we'll be dead first.
Like what you just read? Support high quality local journalism. Become a member of Crosscut today!










Twitter
Facebook
RSS Feeds
Comments:
Posted Mon, Feb 11, 12:50 p.m. Inappropriate
There is a crucial topic to understanding how our economy works. FWIW the expansion of home ownership is a good thing for the economy and War is bad. Don't let any Republican's tell you otherwise, directly or indirectly.
Consider this though, a business person's credit rating means as much to his 'status' as does the security clearance of a military industrial professional to his, or hers. Both have likely been so since 18th Century England.
Posted Mon, Feb 16, 7:49 p.m. Inappropriate
I always knew Steve was intelligent but want to thank Judith for helping the rest of us understand this quandry we find ourselves in. Why our elected officials hope for some kind of magic formula to fix our economic problems is beyond me. The banking industry is no different than you or I and should be held accountable for the bad choices they made. No one will bail me out, so why should I bail the banking industry out?
Posted Mon, Feb 16, 8:56 p.m. Inappropriate
that there are just an awful lot of people in this country that want a home but can't afford one is a separate issue. (1)
that ( few, some, many ) of these people apply for a loan when they KNOW thay can not afford to pay for it is another DIFFERENT problem. (2)
what is good for this country is qualifying qualified people for home loans.
what is NOT good for this country is people who chose to NOT participate in the greed fraud that took place from the late 90's until a year ago see the people of 2 above be 'taken care' of now - being bailed out !
its obvious now that the demos have decided to ignore the 1's ( or the ability of the 1's to change their plight ) and simply help the 2's out of their mess.
But the 2's mess now belongs to ALL of us !
Login or register to add your voice to the conversation.