Election 09: National results point to a throw-them-out tide
Incumbent Congressional Democrats in marginal districts will now run scared, making passage of health-care reform more difficult.
Strong Republican gubernatorial victories in Virginia and New Jersey, two states carried by President Obama a year ago, had similar origins. In both places, black and young voters failed to turn out as they had a year ago. Independent voters shifted in large number from the Democratic to GOP column. Also in both places, voters were concerned with the state of the economy; independents, in particular, worried about growing federal budget deficits.
In New Jersey, Gov. Jon Corzine's unpopularity, as well as local political corruption scandals, contributed to the election of a lackluster Republican candidate.
Democrats did salvage a victory in a New York special congressional election. But it was a bizarre, one-off situation in which the Republican nominee was challenged by a conservative third candidate, withdrew her candidacy three days before the election, and then endorsed the eventual Democratic winner. She remained on the ballot and drew only single-digit support but drained enough votes from the conservative to elect the Democrat. That was a special situation from which no lesson should be drawn — except that both parties should take more care in the candidates they select.
The most important, bottom-line impact nationally of the Virginia/New Jersey returns: Incumbent congressional candidates considered marginal will be frightened by the throw-them-out tide shown in those states only a year after an historic Democratic sweep. They will run scared between now and election day, 2010, on the economic issues which the Tuesday results — as well as simultaneous national polls released by several independent organizations — confirmed were most on the minds of voters.
Pending health-care legislation will be slowed. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, earlier Tuesday, already had declared publicly that a Senate vote might not be held on such legislation until early 2010. (An original August deadline already has been missed, and a more recent November deadline almost certainly will be missed). The difficulty lies in disagreements among liberal and moderate Democrats on the shape and cost of a final legislative proposal. Also Tuesday, congressional Republicans for the first time released their own comprehensive alternative proposal.
Odds still favor passage in both House and Senate of legislation called "health-care reform." But they will widen the longer the delay in the process. Political polarization already exists in the capital and the country. Tuesday night's results are likely to widen it.
Like what you just read? Support high quality local journalism by becoming a member of Crosscut.com today!
Comments:
Posted Wed, Nov 4, 8:21 a.m. inappropriate
To paraphrase Mark Twain, reports of the GOP's death were greatly exaggerated.
Posted Wed, Nov 4, 9:29 a.m. inappropriate
I disagree with your reading of the purple state victories and the significance (or not, according to you) of NY-23.
The further toward the middle the Democratic candidates pushed in both NJ and Virginia, the worse their numbers looked. Why would young and black voters be motivated to come out and fight for someone who is willing to throw them to the wolves on the issues?
And in NY-23 there was a huge national push by the right wing of the Republican Party to prove something... and guess what. Smackdown time!
The DailyKos nailed it on the head: http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2009/11/4/800316/-Tonights-big-lesson
Posted Wed, Nov 4, 12:35 p.m. inappropriate
The independent center of American politics is an unknown land to those that reign over our divide and conquer single branch two party socialism.
Medical issues may play a role in swing states, but making that assertion sans evidence is highly questionable. It may well be that independent dissatisfaction with Obama stems from a vector calculus of dissatisfaction with his Wall Street response and an underlying constant discomfort with big 'D' attitudes.
As I understand it, 65% support insurance reform. We need folks to lead from the center, not sink us from the center. We need to get rid of the obstructionists like Joe Lieberman and bring patriots with balls to the fore like Connecticut's Lowell Weiker, the Republican who stood up against Nixon and replaced that State's sales tax with an income tax.
http://motleytools.com/blog
Posted Wed, Nov 4, 7:06 p.m. inappropriate
As much as the author might wish it, this election will have no impact on how congressional Democrats handle health reform. The slowdown is due to expected tough negotiations on key issues between liberal and conservative Dems. There's absolutely no evidence the gubernatorial races in NJ and Virginia turned on health care or reveal anything about the public's attitude toward health reform. And contrary to the author's statement, the Virginia race couldn't show a "throw-them-out" tide because there was no incumbent to throw out. Finally, top Republicans introduced several "comprehensive" health reform bills earlier this year, but they are deeply flawed and the Republicans themselves have been reluctant to talk about them. So that's nothing new. See my September analysis of their bills at this link:
http://www.suntimes.com/news/otherviews/1784673,CST-EDT-open23.article#
--Harris Meyer
Posted Thu, Nov 5, 9:40 a.m. inappropriate
Douglas, as I understand it 65% support the Public Option being part of insurance reform. On other single issues within the reform package, such as whether ALL children should be insured you see numbers like 87%.
The vast majority of Americans know the current health care insurance system is unsustainable and want it to change. Many of them (not the majority however) are duped into believing the fables spouted by big insurance that a government-run program as an option is undesireable.
The irony is that Lieberman and other 'centrists' are not really representing the center, nor their constituents. They are grabbing headines in our crappy media and riding the airwaves with tickets paid for by the health insurance lobby.