Flight is a little more than a century old, the jet age perhaps half that. Now its baroque phase begins with the first flight (at last) of the Boeing 787. While technically daring in many ways — half the plane consists of lightweight carbon composites — the Dreamliner refines yet again the “tube with wings” design, nave and transept-crossing of a carbon fiber cathedral. It is not the shape of the future of flight.
The Boeing 787 cost a monumental $20 billion to develop. By force of improved methods and materials, engineers wrung a further 20 percent fuel savings from this latest-generation aircraft. But the 787 dangles from the same technology arc as its predecessors, dating back to the 707 that first flew 50 years ago. That arc is now flat.
Start with engine efficiency, where the sharpest gains came early, in the flower power 1960s. Today engine efficiency ticks up a scant 0.2 percent per year. Engine temperatures have soared to near 3,000 degrees but ever more esoteric materials now push the melting point up by less and less. Computing power has scoured the last unnecessary molecules from engine designs, leaving engineering perfection — but not much room for improvement. Although amazing, engines aren’t magic. They’ve gotten bigger, so much so that the Dreamliner’s engines are nearly as big around as a 737. But they also weigh more than earlier power plants despite the use of light-weight materials.
Composites provide roughly twice the strength of aluminum at just over half the weight. By converting the biggest, heaviest parts (the tube and wing), the 787 reaps most of the carbon fiber harvest. Even generation-after-next materials like carbon nanotubes won’t produce the big yield of today’s composites.
For all the hype, weight reductions are the toughest way to eke out fuel efficiencies. Shape matters more. Passenger jets have been continually resculpted to be less brusque in forcing their way through the air at 500 miles an hour. But the changes have been slight. Half a century’s refinement has enhanced aerodynamics a slender 15 percent, and recent efforts look increasingly desperate. An example of a tiny gain: All 787 engines will be gray, because when colors meet they create “paint edges” that catch slightly at the air.
Helped by 800,000 hours of Cray supercomputer time, the 787 might be marginally more aerodynamic than its predecessors. But its cruising speed hardly differs from the 767 which it replaces.
In 1986 when the 767 was brightly new, President Reagan promised a hypersonic, ballistic passenger jet able to screech at mach 25 from Dulles to Narita in two hours. Will we see smaller government first?
The 787 is not the avant garde of the aviation future. Look again at its gray engines. Free of brush marks and carefully sculpted, the engines pass through the air like a diver leaving no splash. If more of the aircraft attained this rarified state of “laminar flow,” fuel consumption might fall to new ascetic lows. Futuristic memory alloys, which actually morph to the perfect shape around the engine in response to temperature changes, were tested on the 787 — but left off.
That’s the state of commercial aviation in a nutshell — or a nacelle: Partly embrace a new technology but exclude more radical ones. The future of smart alloys is on hold, for instance, for the simple reason that welding melts them.
"Transporting" lay people is a shared purpose of cathedral architecture and aeronautical engineering. The 787 doesn’t have stained glass but does have larger, impressively futuristic windows which change in tint at the touch of a button. But they look out from a traditional tubular fuselage. A more iconoclastic design, melding transept and nave, blurring the body/wing distinction, would move closer to the ideal of a craft that is all wing.
For inspiration, passenger jets have looked less to churches and more to the military. The original 707 looked to the B-47 bomber, its cousin and ancestor. Perhaps a completely new Boeing “808” might derive from the B-2 stealth bomber in a flattening of swords to plowshares, fuselage into wing. Boeing and NASA are working jointly on such a plane. Reagan too had an experimental aircraft in hand when he misread the shape of things to come. Why is the plane of the future always delayed?
It's not that we don't have ideas about these new planes, since most “futuristic” ideas in aviation are not really new. The flying wing concept is nearly as old as powered flight. But cost and safety buttress conservatism, holding back change. Large planes are also immensely complicated, with development cycles of more than a decade. Boeing’s “clock speed” is almost ten times slower than the microprocessor industry, and slackening as the gap between generations of aircraft widens.
Two trends might quicken aviation’s pulse. Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), progeny of the war on terror, are small, cheap, and have short development cycles. These drones, like fruit flies in experimental biology, provide fundamental insight into larger organisms. With UAVs, morphing wings and other outré ideas can be tested quickly and inexpensively.
Business jets, currently under a cloud of moral opprobrium, might be another way to break through the technical barriers confronting supersonic flight as the economic crisis clears. Speed costs but the money is out there. Ever-resourceful engineers are now “shaping” sonic booms to mute the effects on earth-bound pedestrians as the elect pass overhead. The new promise is nine and a half hours, New York to Narita.
Cathedrals invoke and satisfy deep celestial yearnings, with soaring walls and spaces built over lifetimes. The 787’s thin carbon fiber skin immures the genius and vitality of its many makers. While they have lifted the passenger jet to its highest state of refinement, the Dreamliner provides no passage to the future of our imagination. Arranged on long aisles, congregants and passengers of this world still await rapture.
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Comments:
Posted Mon, Nov 16, 8:19 a.m. Inappropriate
Boeing's, and the machinists, manufacturing expertise could do wonders in the short-mid distance high speed rail market. This is an area where the cost barriers are human, not physical - and one of 'natural' efficiencies.
America (and its financial system) needs to start using it's technological muscle to make the world more competitive, not less.
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Posted Mon, Nov 16, 8:56 a.m. Inappropriate
The developed world has a large investment in airports. How do you unload a flying wing? well, sure, there is a way but the fuselage design appears to be more amenable to entry and exit (maybe especially emergency exit). Up until now it was my understandng that the B2 is shaped the way it is primarily to evade radar. I am surprised to read the suggestion that it saves fuel. I'm not arguing, just surprised.
I note that the quasi experimental aircraft that Rutan has done are all fuselage and wings format.
Posted Mon, Nov 16, 1:06 p.m. Inappropriate
Birds are wings and a fuselage, a layout that has withstood the test of time. I suspect that design is going to be with us until we no longer need to use air to hold the plane up.
Posted Mon, Nov 16, 1:30 p.m. Inappropriate
Mr. Fortner is right about refinement vs. revolution, and about the prospect of a flying wing design. It wouldn't be as revolutionary as a hypersonic wave-rider, but it would be much more than the 787 refinements.
When it comes to the B-2, its flying wing design is the descendent of a long line of flying wing thinking. (NASA has been using “Blended Wing-Body”, BWB, emphasizing that locations for passengers, freight, engines, etc. can be more like lifting body shapes than bumps in a pure wing, but it’s a language nuance. cf Wikipedia on both FW & BWB.). Jack Northrop himself was working on small flying wing designs since the 1920s, and they reached their peak with the XB-35 / RB-49 designs, started very late in WW II and flying in the late '40s/early 50's. (Unfortunately, in a political (military-industrial complex) contretemps, their program was cancelled and the 13 airframes vindictively destroyed, with their greatest moment limited to flying over the Capital in the War of the Worlds movie. That, followed by a corporate fight stemming from his divorce, was the end of Jack Northrop’s involvement in Northrop Aircraft.)
Before the B-2, the flying wings were created to eliminate the drag of the fuselage and boost efficiency (range/payload, cost per passenger mile, etc.), rather than for radar purposes. (Though remarks were made about the YB-49 being difficult to see both visually and on radar.) Besides eliminating the fuselage drag, it also reduces wing strength requirements, because you don't have all the lifting forces out on the wing and the weight inside the fuselage, with the structure to transfer that lift over to the fuselage to hold up the passengers. Lift and weight are all close together, spread across the wing. No big wing-body joint, or reinforced center wing box.
Northrop made a promotional video showing a passenger cabin inside the RB-49, with an all-glass leading edge, giving an awesome view. (Thought the “bombardier view” wouldn't be suitable for every passenger!)
One of the derivative flying wing designs made (but not produced) was a freighter called a "Span Loader". Avoiding the thought of talking people into riding on a strange shape, they just loaded up freight. The wingtips pivoted up revealing a track going into the wing, and freight rolled in or out both sides.
The radar properties came together in the B-2, given the great flying wing design history there and developments in the '70s for modeling electromagnetic returns, and noticing the synergy of the two, in a quite different approach than the F-117 used.
Posted Mon, Nov 16, 1:57 p.m. Inappropriate
By the way, the fabulous Rutan wings seem to be not flying wings for several good reasons. First, they're usually quite low speed, and extra fuselage drag is less of an issue. The high flyer - long distance series is particularly sailplane like (slow and aerodynamically efficient), with the large span, short chord unswept wings favored for that purpose.
Second, he likes the tandem wing designs, and you have to have something connecting the tandem wings. It may as well hold the crew, or engines, etc.
Finally, there's control. You need to get a certain moment arm on the control surfaces to make them effective, and moving the elevators to the wings isn't practical for short chord wings like sailplanes. That's the reason the B-2 has so many points across the back -- to get the control surfaces back where their moment arms are effective. That wouldn't work on a sailplane wing -- but it would work with two sailplane wings, tandem style. Tandem wings provide more stability and control than typical monoplanes. (Flying wings (or BWBs) provide less inherent stability and control, and require computerized stability.)
Posted Mon, Nov 23, 8:40 a.m. Inappropriate
Air travel is hard to do sustainably, because it needs to store so much energy lightly and compactly. The plane of the future is a train (except for elite and high-cost applications).