Republican hopes are rising for 2010
Democratic polling numbers are sinking, and GOP candidates are stirring. Key names will be Susan Hutchison (possible challenger to Sen. Murray), Jaime Herrara (for the open Brian Baird seat), and John Koster (challenger to Rep. Rick Larsen)
By Chris Vance
December 30, 2009.
What a difference a year makes. As the Obama era began the new President’s poll numbers were in the stratosphere, Democrats had captured seats and states thought to be safe Republican territory, and the GOP was confused, disorganized, and without any discernible leaders, especially here in Washington state.
Now, as we turn the calendar to 2010, Obama’s numbers have fallen dramatically, bringing the rest of his party down to earth with him. And Republicans may have a credible, if not exciting, group of candidates waiting in the wings to lead their possible 2010 comeback, particularly in the Senate race for the Patty Murray seat, and in one or two Congressional districts.
Let’s start with the polling data. When he took office, according to Gallup, President Obama enjoyed an approval rating of 68 percent, with only 12 percent disapproving, for an approve/disapprove ratio of +56. Now the most recent Gallup poll shows those numbers at 52 percent approve, 41 percent disapprove, for an approve/disapprove ratio of +11. The last generic ballot polls, taken just before election day 2008, showed Democrats with a 12 percentage point advantage. Polls taken in December show Republicans with 2.5 percent generic advantage.
The same trends are evident in Washington state polling. According to SurveyUSA, in January, President Obama’s rating was 69 percent approve, 17 percent disapprove; in December it was 50-46. In January, Sen. Murray’s rating stood at 55-36; by December it was 52-40, down a net 7 percent. And the year was particularly tough on Gov. Gregoire. In January, only 42 percent of voters approved of the job she was doing, a figure that has now fallen to 36 percent.
Some of this is to be expected. Once you win an election you begin to hemorrhage popularity, and the President’s Party almost always loses seats in off-year elections. Also cheering to Democrats is the fact that Republicans are no more popular now than they were at the start of the year. CNN polls taken near the beginning and end of 2009 both showed that 54 percent of Americans hold an unfavorable view of the GOP. And a Rasmussen poll in December showed that continuing frustration among conservatives has made the “Tea Party Movement” more popular than the Republican Party. (It might help GOP fortunes in the polls if congressional and legislative Republicans would produce positive, coherent alternatives to Democratic policies in Washington D.C and Olympia.)
With approval ratings hovering around 50 percent, neither Obama nor Murray can be called “weak” or “vulnerable.” It would be wrong to assume that the GOP is today on the verge of another 1994-type landslide. But it would be equally wrong to assume that the political trends of the Bush era will continue. The net result of the Obama slide of 2009 is that Democrats are losing their grip on suburban and independent voters, and that, with the right candidates, in 2010 Republicans cans win back some of the traditionally conservative seats they have lost over the past ten years.
There wasn’t much on the ballot in 2009, but the few elections we had seemed to fit the trend of Republican resurgence. Republicans won the governorships of New Jersey and Virginia, both states that went for Obama. Michael Barone points out that Republicans won a number of down-ballot races in the suburbs in areas that had recently been trending Democratic.
Here at home, Susan Hutchison lost her race for King County Executive by a decisive margin, but she carried six of eight suburban legislative districts, and the two she lost were virtual dead heats. Hutchison received 49 percent of the vote in the close-in Eastside 41st and 48th districts, but she rolled up 58 percent of the vote in Federal Way, (30th district) and 61 percent in the battleground Kent/Auburn area (47th district) She even won the Highline area (33rd district), which hasn’t come close to electing a Republican in many elections.
In this supposedly non-partisan race, Democrats succeeded in getting voters to view Dow Constantine as a Democrat and Hutchison as a Republican. Yet suburban voters — who have recently been sending Democrats to Olympia — chose Hutchison. Suburban Democrats, especially those in South King County and Pierce County facing re-election next year, should be nervous.
Of course, you can’t beat somebody with nobody. Candidates win elections, not consultants or clever strategy. There may be a Republican wave next year, but the GOP has to recruit surfers to ride it. As the year draws to a close, there is suddenly some Republican momentum at the top of the Washington state ticket.
A number of earnest, determined activists have stepped forward to run against Patty Murray next year, but none of them is well known or seems to have the ability to raise serious money. Meanwhile, Susan Hutchison is being wooed by leading Republicans to get in the race, and by all accounts she is strongly considering it.
Hutchison would have hurdles to overcome, but she would be a credible, interesting candidate with name identification and the ability to raise money. In the Executive’s race she received 40.7 percent of the King County vote, nearly 5 percentage points more than Dino Rossi polled in 2008 against Gregoire, and more than enough to win a statewide race. Liberals like to believe that Sen. Murray is overwhelmingly popular, but her approval ratings and re-elect numbers have never borne that out. Hutchison could turn Murray’s cakewalk into a real race, and greatly aid down-ballot Republicans running for other offices.
In the third congressional district, Brian Baird’s surprise retirement creates a tremendous GOP opportunity, and now they have an A-list candidate in state Rep. Jaime Herrera. There are other Republicans in the race, but Herrera is a young rising star, and she is the one Republicans are excited about. She has hired much of the same political team that worked on both Rossi campaigns for governor.
The Democrats have a deep bench and will nominate a strong candidate, but this southwest Washington district should be Republican territory. Rossi won the 3rd in 2004 and 2008, Bush won it in 2004, and Patty Murray only got 50 percent of the vote there in 2004. In this political atmosphere, Herrera should join her old boss, Rep. Cathy McMorris-Rodgers in the House in 2011.
Republicans may also be competitive at the other end of I-5 in the second congressional district. Snohomish County Councilman John Koster is reportedly strongly considering running for a seat he nearly won back in 2000. The 2nd isn’t quite as Republican as the 3rd, but Rossi did win it in 2004. Koster would be a serious candidate, and again, if there is a Republican tide, Congressman Rick Larsen could face an unexpectedly tough re-election fight.
If Hutchison and Koster join Herrera on the Republican ticket, Republicans will have a 2010 team much stronger than anyone expected just a few months ago. This will greatly aid Republican candidates running for the legislature. National Republican money will be here to help re-elect Dave Reichert in the 8th CD, and now the 3rd CD is certain to be an additional national target. If Hutchison and Koster get in, that could further increase attention and money flowing to Washington state for get out the vote tactics, critical in an off year election.
It is too soon to size up the field of legislative candidates, but Republican leaders Rep. Richard DeBolt and Sen. Mike Hewitt, and their political teams, by and large did a good job recruiting candidates in 2008. If they can field another strong crop of challengers, especially in the suburban crescent, they will most likely pick up seats and reduce the huge majorities Democrats currently enjoy in both houses.
Of course, this is how the world looks today, at the dawn of the 2010 election season. Nothing is constant but change, and in a few months things may look very different. It is certain, however, that Washington State Republicans end 2009 in much better shape than they had a right to expect when the year began.
Comments:
Posted Wed, Dec 30, 1:34 p.m. Inappropriate
What platform would Hutchison put forward? I never could find that out in the King Co Exec race.
Posted Wed, Dec 30, 1:38 p.m. Inappropriate
Oh, so Susan Hutchison has decided that she's a Republican after all?
Posted Wed, Dec 30, 1:40 p.m. Inappropriate
Another problem that Hutchison would face is that Murray is exceptional on military and veterans issues--what she has done for our bases and VA hospitals can't be matched. You start reminding people in Pierce and Spokane counties of that, and it gets that much harder for Susan to be competitive.
And frankly, right now the buzz around Herrera isn't positive at all. She's being called an opportunist, she's being linked with the SEIU and Acorn, and her experience will be a factor. If Richard Debolt or Joe Zarelli jump in, there's absolutely no reason to think they couldn't take her in a primary where the base is more likely to vote. And really--
She has hired much of the same political team that worked on both Rossi campaigns for governor.
.....isn't exactly high praise. The election for Governor was over early in 2008.
Posted Wed, Dec 30, 2 p.m. Inappropriate
The question about Murray is, as Seattle's senator, can she scrounge enough votes from The Rest of The State to win. She's considered a rather dim bulb by many voters outside King County, and little more than a party functionary. If the party is held is disrepute, she will suffer. Seattle will always vote for her, and Seattle pols will express shock when and if she loses, but the real question is whether everyone outside of Seattle is tired enough of Ms. Tennis Shoes to bid her take a hike.
Posted Wed, Dec 30, 2:43 p.m. Inappropriate
Did Chris Vance phone this in? Crosscut should require more thorough reporting. Vance neglected to mention any of the GOP candidates who have existing exploratory committees for US Senate. A great resource for Crosscut readers, and Mr. Vance, can be found here along with the results of a recent straw poll of the potential candidates hoping to wear their tennis shoes to Washington: http://theevergreenreport.com/home/
Happy New Year!
--CK1
Posted Wed, Dec 30, 2:55 p.m. Inappropriate
Breneman, you might want to check your facts, because you need to, big time. In 2004, Murray won every county west of the mountains except for Lewis County and Clark County. That's a hell of a lot more than just Seattle.
Nethercutt at least was from Spokane, and had represented the 5th District in the House, so he had somewhat of a base over East. Hutchison has none of that, and barely got to 40 percent of the vote in her own county, plus she has never held public office of any kind, and she's going to run for the U.S. Senate?
Murray will spit her out like watermelon seeds, and you knew that even before you posted your nonsense here.
Posted Wed, Dec 30, 4:32 p.m. Inappropriate
It’s little wonder 2009 began with “the GOP confused, disorganized, and without any discernible leaders,” after 8 years of unprecedented attacks, demonization and media manipulation of anything Republican.
I see the article continues with the media manipulation with the claim “they [now] have an A-list candidate in state Rep. Jaime Herrera.”
Yes, she is a “rising star,” evidence by her many years absence from Washington State and the 3rd District and returning just in time to win appointment to a vacated House seat over several other candidates who were up to date on matters within her district.
Just what kind if “rising star” is it that rapidly jumps into a congressional race, less than 2 hours after the incumbent announces he is not going to run again? Sounds more like political cowardice to me, hardly befitting such a “rising star.”
One of those “other Republicans” in the race is David Castillo, who filed back when it was expected to be a tough run against an entrenched incumbent. He didn’t wait to see an easy run then rapidly jump in. He’s been busy campaigning, building his support and funds and earning endorsements.
He’s ready to represent the entire 3rd District, not be lead around by party insiders who have carefully groomed his candidacy out of partisanship.
Many of us Republicans just really aren’t all that excited about Herrera. Hiring Rossi’s campaign may sound good, but even though he carried the 3rd in 2004 and 2008, he lost nearly 4% of the votes he received in 2004 in 2008.
I’m sticking with Castillo. I’d rather a good representative over a “rising star.”
Posted Wed, Dec 30, 5:05 p.m. Inappropriate
Ryan,
"The election for Governor was over early in 2008."
That just isn't true:
http://crosscut.com/2008/12/03/2008-election/18677/
Posted Wed, Dec 30, 9:39 p.m. Inappropriate
The 3rd Congressional District will be a competitive race. But the truth is that the WA GOP has no chance against Sen. Murray. No major political analyst has ranked the race as anything except "Safe/Strong Dem." Whoever the WA GOP offers up will be a sacrificial lamb. That is why no one of significance is willing to take her own. They know it is a fool's errand.
The notion that Hutchinson could turn it into a real race is a flat-out joke. She has no relevant experience, doesn't know the issues (as we saw in the King County Executive Race) and her strong Christian conservatism will be as popular as the plague in WA (remember Linda Smith?). She cannot even count on the support of business due to Murray's ability to direct federal dollars to WA from her seat on the Senate Appropriations Committee. And there's no hiding from the abortion issue in a Senate race. There is no way she can say it's irrelevant. Patty would crush her like a bug.
Posted Thu, Dec 31, 6:38 a.m. Inappropriate
My Republican friends say Hutchison would be burdened in a statewide race by the extreme conservatives who are her most passionate supporters. In a Senate race she will need to come clean on her party affiliation, which might help her a tad (at least she'd be less of a fraud.) She'd also need to answer other questions she avoided in her last race, like where she stands on topics like abortion.
It might be interesting to watch. But ultimately it would be a waste. Voters will rally around Patty Murray across the state, as well they should. She has the seniority that matters for a state our size. Chris presents a partisan frame for the upcoming campaign. Murray's seniority and effectiveness have moved her beyond that.
Posted Thu, Dec 31, 7:07 a.m. Inappropriate
Chris: "Ryan,
"The election for Governor was over early in 2008."
That just isn't true:
http://crosscut.com/2008/12/03/2008-election/18677/"
My apologies; I meant to say "early in the night" as compared to 2004. Sen. Rossi may have taken his time giving up the ghost, but when Gregoire was out there on election night saying "It's over", then it was over.
Posted Thu, Dec 31, 9:44 a.m. Inappropriate
Phil Spackman: What the heck are you talking about?
Posted Thu, Dec 31, 9:58 a.m. Inappropriate
Vance cites Murray's minor dip in approval rating as evidence she could be beatable in her next race. Perhaps. He says it's down a net 7% --- I actually calculate 5% based on his numbers. But that's hair-splitting.
Is it any surprise that D's numbers are down at the national level right now as they grapple with large and complex problems (wars of choice, unemployment, Wall Street, health care, the environment) that were ignored, or in some cases caused, by Republican mismanagement and corruption over the last 8 years. Swing voters in suburbs rightly want results, and are willing to switch horses at election time. Since you don't get instant results when addressing problems like these, Democrats nautrally have to work hard to prove they are governing well, as they should. Is this news?
Vance said it best:
"It might help GOP fortunes in the polls if congressional and legislative Republicans would produce positive, coherent alternatives to Democratic policies in Washington D.C and Olympia."
I wish them luck with that. It would be good for all of us.
Joe Sperry
Posted Thu, Dec 31, 11:09 a.m. Inappropriate
Chris,
Well, I suppose you've got to write something to give heart to your party.
But Hutchinson? Beating Patty? Dream on, if it makes you happy. God knows, the world does not need ANOTHER cranky Republican.
Ross Kane
Warm Beach
Posted Thu, Dec 31, 11:09 a.m. Inappropriate
Chris,
Well, I suppose you've got to write something to give heart to your party.
But Hutchinson? Beating Patty? Dream on, if it makes you happy. God knows, the world does not need ANOTHER cranky Republican.
Ross Kane
Warm Beach
Posted Thu, Dec 31, 11:53 a.m. Inappropriate
Did I predict that Susan Hutchison would beat Patty Murray? No. What I said was Susan Hutchison would be a credible candidate with a chance to win in this atmosphere. That would be a big improvement over where the GOP was just a few months ago.
Posted Thu, Dec 31, 4:01 p.m. Inappropriate
She has no chance, Chris, in this or any other "atmosphere," she is not a credible candidate, and you are not a credible commentator.
Look, it's OK to be a Republican, it's OK to be a conservative, and it's OK to be a cheerleader for Republicans and conservatives. Really it is. All we ask is that you quit insulting our intelligence with nonsense like this that is so obviously, manifestly untrue.
Note to Brewster: Exactly who do you think is going to contribute to Crosscut as long as you insist on foisting dreck like this on us?
Posted Thu, Dec 31, 5:21 p.m. Inappropriate
Ivan,
Do you have any facts to support your opinion that Hutchison isn't credible?
I cited two facts:
1. Hutchison just carried the King County suburbs by a wide enough margin to offset the Seattle vote and win a statewide race.
2. Murray's favorable/unfavorable ratio is not high enough to make her invulnerable to a challenge
We all have opinions. But politics is often about numbers, and the numbers indicate that Hutchison could be a credible candidate.
Posted Thu, Dec 31, 5:25 p.m. Inappropriate
I think Jaime Herrera is great and I will support her 100 percent. I don't know about Susan Hutchison - I won't support her if she is going to win and then endorse Mike Huckabee for president.
I will not support Hutchison if it means helping Huckabee. I will not be a part of that!