What would Republicans do about the state budget?

Don't raise taxes. Cut the budget. So say Republicans, without getting specific. Here's what the shadow government would likely do, if given the chance.

Sen. Mike Hewitt, R-Walla Walla on a Tri-Cities talk show.

Mike Hewitt

Sen. Mike Hewitt, R-Walla Walla on a Tri-Cities talk show.

The Republican shadow government in Olympia is essentially powerless, but nonetheless alive and kicking. No, it hasn’t produced an alternative budget to those Gov. Chris Gregoire and House and Senate Democrats have proposed, but that doesn't mean we can't discern some shadowy outlines of the GOP approach.

Gregoire likes to goad the GOP about their missing budget plan. “My colleagues on the Republican side of the aisle have not embraced the fact that we should do revenue,” said the governor after signing legislation to suspend the two-thirds requirement for tax hikes. “They’ve embraced an all-cuts budget. While they’ve embraced it, by the way, they haven’t said what they would cut. They haven’t produced a budget," she complained, adding the familiar invitation to a sucker punch: "If the Republicans have a better budget, I’d like to see it.” Republicans, meanwhile, show no signs of taking the bait, as spelled out in this story by Brad Shannon of The Olympian.

Gregoire also insisted that any Republican alternative would have to save programs like hospice, children’s healthcare, and maternity care. To Republicans, this is a set up designed to make them look heartless. Who doesn’t support hospice?

And so the political fencing goes. But let’s back-up for a moment. Democrats and Republicans don’t even agree on how Washington state got into this financial mess — an unprecedented $12 billion gap in revenues and projected spending for the entire 2009-11 biennium. Democrats are quick to point the finger at greed on Wall Street. Republicans counter-punch that it was overspending by Democrats just before the housing bubble burst. The GOP’s favorite statistic is that Washington’s budget grew by 33 percent (or $8.4 billion) during Gregoire’s first term in office.

Every chance he gets, Senate Republican Leader Mike Hewitt, R-Walla Walla, whips out a three-by-five laminated card from December 2007. It shows a bar graph of rising state spending and predicts state budget shortfalls in the 09-11 budget cycle. In other words, the Republican mantra is: “We told you so.” But had Republicans been in charge, would they have banked several billion dollars in revenues during the good times? Chances are if they didn’t spend the money on their own priorities, they would have sent it back to taxpayers and businesses in the form of tax cuts.

But that’s all water under the bridge. The question now is how to rebalance the budget and close the current $2.7 billion shortfall through July 2011. Democrats are defaulting to raising taxes, along with another round of cuts (last year they cut nearly $4 billion and didn’t resort to tax hikes). Republicans claim if they were in charge, they’d do it with cuts alone. You don’t have to look hard to find longtime Olympia observers who believe even Republicans would raise some taxes if they were in charge. They point to the 1982 session as evidence.

So what might Republicans cut, if ever forced to say or given the chance to govern? For starters, the Basic Health Plan and General Assistance Unemployable — two costly state-only funded programs that don’t benefit from federal Medicaid matching dollars. BHP is a sliding-fee health insurance program. GA-U is a cash-assistance welfare program that serves about 20,000 (mostly) men who are out of work because of issues like mental health and drug and alcohol addiction.

“Two programs I’m sure that meet needs of people,” Representative Gary Alexander, R-Thurston, the ranking Republican on the House budget committee, told me last week on TVW’s “Inside Olympia.” “But basically in a time like this we have to think about … reducing the footprint of government … and basically say we just have to live within the resources … and live without them.”

Even if Republicans didn’t fully eliminate these programs, they say they would weed out people they don’t think deserve the taxpayer subsidized benefit. This might mean stricter and more frequent means-testing and citizenship checks.

Last year, Democrats slashed funding for the Basic Health Plan by 43 percent or roughly 40,000 slots. Today 94,000 Washingtonians are on a wait list to get on the popular, low-cost health insurance program. Democrats are convinced that half-a-loaf is better than no loaf at all and are determined to save what’s left of the BHP. Gregoire is seeking a federal waiver so that Medicaid dollars could be channeled into the program.

GA-U has a fierce defender in Speaker of the House Frank Chopp, D-Seattle. In fact, House Democrats are changing name of the program to the less bureaucratic “Disability Lifeline.” House and Senate Democrats are also proposing a series of cost-saving reforms to the program. The Senate plan goes the furthest and, in Republican fashion, would set time limits on how long individuals can receive the cash benefit. But that will be viewed by Chopp as too draconian.

Other Republican cost-saving proposals include: eliminating full-day Kindergarten, requiring state employees to pay more for their healthcare, and instituting stricter time limits and sanctions for welfare recipients.

Republicans would also reduce the eligibility level for another apple of Speaker Chopp’s eye — the Democrats’ Apple Health for Kids program. It provides low-cost medical insurance to children in families making up to 300 percent of poverty which, for a family of four, is $66,000 a year. Republican Sen. Mark Schoesler, R-Ritzville, says that’s too generous and creates an incentive for families to drop their private insurance and go onto Apple Health. He’d drop the eligibility level back down to 200 percent of poverty. There’s also a Republican proposal to eliminate health insurance for children of illegal immigrants saving an estimated $60 million.

Without a formal budget proposal, it’s hard to calculate whether the Republican proposals add up to enough savings to close the budget gap. The GOP is also fiercely critical of how much federal one-time money Democrats are relying on to help bailout the budget. If Republicans were in charge and took less of that D.C. money, they’d have to cut even more state spending. Democrats, to be sure, don’t think the Republican numbers pencil out. And it’s important to remember Republicans, like Democrats, are not monolithic. Some Republicans would eliminate a program like the Basic Health Plan, but that would anathema to others. Who knows what deeper cuts the GOP could actually muscle through if they the party in power.

Another criticism that Republicans level at majority Democrats is they’re not doing enough to reform state government. In her second inaugural speech in 2009, Gregoire called on lawmakers to knock down “sacred cows” in state government. But that’s easier said than done, especially when powerful labor unions are blocking your every move.

No doubt Republicans would find it easier to blow past the unions. You could imagine them finding the political will to close outdated state institutions, split up the Department of Social and Health Services, and privatize state liquor sales. But their bandwidth might instead be taken up tackling the priorities of the business community — for instance making the state worker’s compensation and unemployment insurance systems more employer-friendly.

In the end, one Olympia insider told me, both parties, when in power, usually end up working at the margins.


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Comments:

Posted Mon, Mar 1, 6:17 a.m. Inappropriate

I noted Marty Brown the Governor's Legilslative policy advisor on IMPACT over the weekend stated the "privatization of the state liquor buisness has been studied many times. Other than the recent study from the auditors office showing the potential for a 300 million dollar profit, It has never been shown to make fiscal sense, the Governor will not support it."

Yep she is really cutting to the bare bones. Of course Marty represents a $125,000 of salary overhead, we can get a $30,000 a year communications major from Evergreen to read a talking points memo.

Cameron

Posted Mon, Mar 1, 7:35 a.m. Inappropriate

Cuts will have to be made. The Democrats are just postponing the inevitable. A sophomoric way to govern. This time next year, the state shortfall will be between 5 and 9 BILLION dollars.

BlueLight

Posted Mon, Mar 1, 8 a.m. Inappropriate

Interesting piece. Yes, Republicans are understandably reluctant to develop an alternative all-cuts budget because they know what the public reception would be. It would damage their hopes of gaining back some of those moderate swing districts, such as in the King County suburbs.

Yes, Republicans raised taxes in 1982 in response to the Reagan Recession, but the GOP was a much different party in those days -- it had some bona fide moderates among its members in the Legislature. Its caucuses were not limited to the "all taxes are evil" people that populate them today, people like Rep. Alexander who view every tax as a penalty.

Posted Mon, Mar 1, 8:08 a.m. Inappropriate

Oh yes that Reagan Recession, what were the interest rates back during the Carter years? Unemployment rates? Who did we have in charge of congress during the Reagan Recession? Is the statement really that the Republicans raised taxes 28 years ago in Washington State, so nobody should complain as the Democrats do it for the next three decades? You run with that in November.

Cameron

Posted Mon, Mar 1, 8:42 a.m. Inappropriate

Maybe the question should have been, "What would the Republicans in the Legislature have suggested had they been dedicated to the well being of Washington State to the exclusion of political concersn?" I read better comment in the Seattle Times than what I hear coming from Republican leaders.

Demand for programs like BHP and GAU are virtually guaranteed to exceed projections. They create their own self-generating constituency, beneficiaries and providers, that legislators apparently cannot resist.

kieth

Posted Mon, Mar 1, 8:55 a.m. Inappropriate

If the Republicans had been in power in the last few sessions, and they had returned tax revenue to the people when the Treasury was flush, they would be justified in now saying "share the wealth == share the sacrifice". The problem is, all that the Democrats in Olympia want from taxpayers is more and more sacrifice, and what do the taxpayers get in return? Calls for yet more and more sacrifice. Government isn't an important enough part of most productive people's lives (at least "important" in a positive way) that they will be willing to sacrifice themselves on its fiscal altar indefinitely.

dbreneman

Posted Mon, Mar 1, 11:24 a.m. Inappropriate

"Don't raise taxes. Cut the budget."

A no brainer.
If our elected leaders don't get it by now, they deserve to be thrown out next election day.

Posted Mon, Mar 1, 12:30 p.m. Inappropriate

Forbes has a story today: Bluest States Spilling the Most Red Ink

http://www.forbes.com/2010/02/25/democratic-states-bad-financial-shape-personal-finance-blue.html

BlueLight

Posted Mon, Mar 1, 5:36 p.m. Inappropriate

The most salient sentence in this article is "Without a formal budget proposal, it’s hard to calculate whether the Republican proposals add up to enough savings to close the budget gap." I would like to see the author at least try to quantify how these cuts would stack up to the current deficit. Without such specificity this article is just empty wind.

The comment that "Government isn't an important enough part of most productive people's lives..." is a shallow and misleading statement. I believe that most of the state budget goes towards educating children and incarcerating criminals. Both of these functions are important, even to "productive" people.

Also, many comments act as if the state government hasn't cut the budget at all. This is misleading - the state government has already made very extensive cuts.

sdstarr

Posted Tue, Mar 2, 7:02 a.m. Inappropriate

The comment that "Government isn't an important enough part of most productive people's lives..." is a shallow and misleading statement.

Sez you. Government has been educating children and incarcerating criminals in this state since the 1800s, but only a fool would suggest that those functions all that these tremendous increases in the burden of state government in the last decade have been directed at. In fact, many of these core functions of government are getting short shrift as the all-intrusive "nanny state" insinuates itself into the lives of people in increasingly parasitic ways.

dbreneman

Posted Tue, Mar 2, 7:45 a.m. Inappropriate

Should have read "...those functions are all that these tremendous increases..."

dbreneman

Posted Tue, Mar 2, 8:47 a.m. Inappropriate

The perception that the State has made "extensive cuts" is in fact false. First, the State delayed cuts and/or reductions with the support of Federal Stimulus monies. Second, cuts and/or reductions trumpeted by the State only served to RESTRAINED the growth of State government. I suggest those confused by the difference look at the ACTUAL expenditures, rather than talking about the gap between EXPECT tax receipts and ACTUAL tax receipts--the "Deficit" is nothing more than poor forecasting; however, total expenditures have essentially REMAINED the SAME as "extensive cuts" were being made.

g

Posted Tue, Mar 2, 5:04 p.m. Inappropriate

It's weird, Austin (may I call you that?), that you don't acknowledge that Governor Gregoire has already proposed a worst-case scenario balanced budget that does most of what the Republicans propose and cuts a whole lot more.

It's convenient for the Republicans to pretend that the budget can be balanced by cutting welfare to poor people, kids, and immigrants, but there's very little reason to believe that.

DannyK

Posted Thu, Mar 4, 8:44 p.m. Inappropriate

Balancing the budge while maintaining services demands quite simply cutting the average compensation per state employee to a level that balances the budget. It's really that simple. Start with a graduated 5% reduction in salaries for a 5% reduction overall. Do this by cutting salaries 10% and adding performance bonuses equivalent to 5%. That way you start to put in place a performance reward system instead of a monopolistic entitlement system.

Next, implement a 5% reduction in average healthcare costs by providing less medical coverage per employee or through increased co-pays. I bet this more than balances the budget. If government employees think this too draconian, they might start by looking at what's happened and is happening in the private sector.

The fundamental problem with the public sector is not lack of taxes but lack of performance monitoring and improvement over time. Witness the public school system for evidence of the failure to monitor the quality of teachers, of teaching performance, of student performance, and of school performance. Same with the criminal-justice system: who is monitoring the quality of inmates produced by our prisons? The quality of justice by our judges and prosecutors? and the quality of policing by our police departments?

Unfortunately, we don't pay for outcomes, but for staffing levels at fixed salary levels. A secondary effect of good government seems to be sometimes adequate government. Maybe we ought to reward for performance instead. That will happen only when compensation is tied to performance and not taking up space in a bureaucracy until the bureaucrat can collect a pension for enduring the bureaucracy, a feat that may be quite difficult and challenging, but in and of itself, produces no output that citizens value.

I highly value the services that government intends to provide (unlike many Republicans), but am unwilling to pay (unlike many Democrats) for monopolistic and ineffective government bureaucracies that have no handle on how to be effective and efficient in what they're doing. This leaves me in a quandry since the demand for services is unceasing and the inertia of ineffective government is entrenched. Mostly I try to vote for anything that smacks of actual reward for performance, and vote against anything that looks like hoggish behavior (as in pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered).

Stuka

Posted Sat, Mar 6, 9:02 a.m. Inappropriate

Stuka -

THANK YOU!

You wrote the best and most lucid explanation of what's wrong with the public sector and how to fix it that I have ever read. I'm going to keep this. More than that, I'm going to share it with others.

coolpapa

Posted Tue, Mar 9, 2:45 p.m. Inappropriate

It is very difficult to get the actual details of the problem. Is there a $12 billion drop in revenue and spending is flat? Is there a $12 billion increase in spending and revenue is flat?

It never seems to come up in any reports for example in comparing where the budget was in the last biennium, $X in Revenue, $X expenditure, bottom line surplus or shortage to what the current budget is. We need an ability to see what is trending where, instead we get "$12 billion shortage". This is like me claiming I'm short $50,000 in my income and I must have a raise without disclosing that I have a new Ferrari to support or conversely that I have had a $50k decrease in other income.

We need some context in this discussion.

ruffner

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