The Vance Report: A rising tide lifts many Republican boats
National issues are playing very much in the Republicans' favor, which will help the party's local candidates. Here's a comprehensive rundown on where local races now stand.
In the two months since my last report much has happened. The Democratic health care plan finally passed in Washington, D.C., and the Democrat-controlled legislature adjourned after finally finding a combination of tax increases that could win majority votes in the House and Senate.
Believe it or not, I am almost rooting for some good news I can report for the Democrats just so I won't be accused of being a GOP cheerleader. There is some such news, but an honest look at the data leads to this conclusion: Six months out from Election Day, the Republican tidal wave still is building momentum.
National polling data remain largely unchanged since February, which is terrible news for the Democrats. There was no "health care bounce." Only 40 percent of Americans support the health care plan, while 52 percent are opposed. President Obama's approval rating remains at 48 percent, and Republicans have slightly increased their lead in the congressional generic ballot. The GOP now leads by 45 to 42 percent.
The generic ballot numbers are particularly significant. As Gallup pointed out in its latest survey, which found the GOP ahead 48-44 percent, Republicans rarely lead among all registered voters:
The trend based on registered voters shows how rare it is for the Republicans to lead on this "generic ballot" measure among all registered voters, as they do today. Other recent exceptions were recorded in 1994 — when Republicans wrested majority control from the Democrats for the first time in 40 years — and 2002, when the GOP achieved seat gains, a rarity for the president's party in midterm elections. In midterm years when Democrats prevailed at the polls (such as 2006, 1990, and 1986), their net support among registered voters typically extended into double digits at several points during the year — something that has yet to happen in 2010.
Here at home, according to SurveyUSA, U.S. Sen. Patty Murray's approval rating has dropped to 46 percent, with 61 percent of independents saying they disapprove of her job performance.
Adding to the Democratic woes is the recruiting success Olympia Republicans are having, especially for the state Senate. (Much less Republican progress in state House races, however.) The Senate R's have virtually run the table in terms of finding top-tier candidates for targeted races. And the GOP's marquee congressional candidates posted strong April fundraising totals.
U.S. Senate
One giant shoe is yet to drop: will Dino Rossi run for the U.S. Senate?
U.S. Senators are particularly vulnerable when their party faces a negative national tide, and Murray is no exception. Given the Democratic leanings of their Puget Sound districts, incumbent House members Adam Smith and Jay Inslee are routinely re-elected with 65 percent of the vote or more, giving them a large cushion during a bad election cycle. Sen. Murray, however, has never topped 60 percent of the vote. Her falling approval ratings, and the fact that she fails to break 50 percent against any Republican confirms her vulnerability. Real Clear Politics recently changed the status of Sen. Murray’s re-election from "likely Democrat" to "lean Democrat."
So who will Murray's opponent be? Rep. Dave Reichert recently made it known he is not interested in a Senate race this cycle. Republican insiders believe Rossi is very close now to a go/no-go decision, perhaps in the coming weeks.
If Rossi pulls the trigger, the race is a toss-up. If he doesn't, businessman Paul Akers and state Sen. Don Benton are the two leading contenders for the Republican nomination, and this race is a likely hold for the Democrats. But if the Democrats' national slump gets even worse, Sen. Murray may find herself in trouble, even against one of the lesser-known Republicans.
U.S. House races
Here is a look across the state:
Safe Republican: Doc Hastings, 4th Congressional District, Cathy McMorris-Rodgers, 5th CD.
Likely Republican: 8th CD Dave Reichert v. Suzan DelBene. DelBene continues to raise a lot of money. In a different kind of year, this race would be a toss-up.
Lean Republican: The 3rd Congressional District is an open seat, with Democratic Rep. Brian Baird retiring from office. Spirited primary battles are shaping up on both sides. On the GOP side, former Bush administration official David Castillo isn't going away, and has roughly $50,000 in the bank. The favorite, however, remains state Rep. Jaimie Herrera, who has banked an impressive $140,000. Castillo is running a serious race, but Herrera has more name identification, the credibility of being an elected official, and almost three times as much money in the bank. It’s hard to see how she loses the primary to Castillo.
On the Democratic side, former state House majority leader Denny Heck is turning out to be a fundraising machine. He has $532,000 in the bank, $250,000 of which is his own money. State Rep. Deb Wallace dropped out a few weeks ago, leaving state Sen. Craig Pridemore as Heck's Democratic opponent. Pridemore has $51,000 in the bank, and was just endorsed by the Sierra Club. This is shaping up as a classic confrontation between the "establishment moderate” (Heck) and the “true liberal” (Pridemore).
In the end it probably won't matter which Democrat prevails. The 3rd is a Republican-leaning district and this looks like a Republican year. Herrera is most likely going to Congress.
Lean Democratic: 2nd district Rep. Rick Larsen v. John Koster. Snohomish County Councilmember John Koster achieved a significant milestone by banking roughly $100,000 in the first quarter of 2010. In a normal year, Larsen would be cruising to re-election, but this isn't a normal year, and Koster's solid fundraising performance, combined with the competitive party balance in the 2nd district, makes this a race to watch.
Likely Democratic: There are two of these races, one involving Rep. Jay Inslee in the 1st district. Two Republicans have lined up to run against Inslee, Matthew Burke and James Watkins. Neither has raised much money, but Watkins has loaned his own campaign $100,000. Inslee is probably safe, unless the Republican wave reaches tsunami proportions.
Also in the same category is 9th district Democratic incumbent Adam Smith. A lot of Republicans are excited about Pierce County Councilmember Dick Muri's candidacy, but his April fundraising total is likely to dampen some of that enthusiasm. Despite Smith's being the local focus of the health care debate, Muri raised only $26,000 during the first quarter of 2010, and has only $42,000 in the bank after being in the race for a year. In the meantime, James Postma, Smith's GOP opponent in 2008, is running again, has loaned his campaign $150,000, and is already running cable TV ads. At this point it seems more likely that Muri will lose the primary than it does that he will beat Smith in the general.
Safe Democratic: Norm Dicks, 6th district, and Jim McDermott, 7th district.
State legislative races
For months, Democrats in Olympia fretted over how to balance the budget while doing themselves the least possible political damage. In the end, they cut spending roughly $700 million and raised a combination of taxes on such things as beer, soda, bottled water, and candy.
Going into special session in order to raise taxes and cut spending is certainly not good politics, and won't be popular on the campaign trail. But in the end, it really doesn't matter what the Olympia D's did this year. This is going to be a nationalized election, and Democrats are in trouble because of health care and the economy, not what they did or didn't do in Olympia. Many Democrats in swing districts voted against the budget and the tax increase package. This fall they are likely to learn the same lesson their predecessors in both parties have learned in past elections: When the national tide is running against your party, there's not much you can do to save yourself.
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Comments:
Posted Wed, Apr 21, 3:38 a.m. Inappropriate
Hmmm. I was looking forward to Vance's analysis of the Tea Partiers and their influence on races this year, particular of course in Republican primaries. But nary a mention by the former GOP state chairman. Between the Tea Party zealots and the Party of No agenda they pursue in the Congress, I expect to see a certain drag on the party momentum, come November.
Posted Wed, Apr 21, 6:19 a.m. Inappropriate
The media is fascinated with the Tea Party phenomenon, and for some reason the notion persists that somehow it is going to harm Republicans. As I pointed out, so far this year the polling has been very consistent and it doesn't show a backlash against the Tea Partiers. Still six months to go. We'll see.
Posted Wed, Apr 21, 7:59 a.m. Inappropriate
It appears the the Republicans are poised to lose all that momentum with their opposition to financial reform legislation. The D's will accurately portray them as defenders of Wall Street, big banks and the insurance industry. Polls are showing the public increasingly angry with these traditional Republican allies and supporters. I'm not convinced a populist backlash in November will necessarily benefit the R's over the D's.
Posted Wed, Apr 21, 8:28 a.m. Inappropriate
Has there EVER been an election cycle when Chris Vance didn't predict a rising tide for Republicans?
Why bother giving such an obvious party hack (whether they be Republican or Democrat) a platform?
If anyone wants to know what they have to say, they can always visit the Party website - this isn't "value added" to Crosscut, which is an otherwise excellent site!
Posted Wed, Apr 21, 9:05 a.m. Inappropriate
A reminder that there are no longer party primaries for these offices mentioned in Chris Vance's piece. It's a Top 2 environment and the two faves for each office will go forward. In most cases, that will be a prefers-R and a prefers-D, but the August 17 primary will not be a nominating process, but rather a winnowing election.
Posted Wed, Apr 21, 9:48 a.m. Inappropriate
-Ammons mentions a critical factor in the races in Washington. We saw the first fallout in the Mayor's race with the incumbent normally able to secure the primary instead losing. It's much more likely that an interesting candidate in a strong republican or democratic district will unseat the incumbent.
Unfortunately for Mr. Vance this state by the numbers is a democratic one. And thus he may find that where the Republicans used to be able to at least field a candidate, they won't have one on the ticket come November.
I'd be glad to see Mr. Rossi run against Senator Murray. It would finish him off as a candidate for ever. Senator Murray as a senior Democrat has access to more money than Mr. Rossi can dream of. The ruling by the Supreme ct that lets corporate money be used directly in the race will not be enough and they won't bother betting on a losing horse when there are other races where there is a better chance.
Still the Party of "No" has yet to address the voter anger against the rip-off's of the banksters. They haven't given the voters a plan to get out of Afghanistan, or Iraq. They have held up bills giving the unemployed benefits. They never did bother to give us an alternative plan for fixing health care. They haven't addressed the overspending by the Pentagon on wasteful programs like the F-22 or the soon to be ridiculous F-35 price tag. Until they have a unified plan that isn't "tax cuts for us rich white guys, bankruptcy and foreclosure for the rest of you." they aren't going anywhere come November.
Posted Wed, Apr 21, 10 a.m. Inappropriate
Republicans in Washington State would do so much better at the ballot box if they would stop wearing their religion on their sleeves, started supporting concrete things that actually make it easier to have and raise kids, and stop with the antigay stuff. Until those things change, not foreseeing any GOP tide in this state.
Posted Wed, Apr 21, 10:29 a.m. Inappropriate
When a "public affairs consultant", whether Republican or Democrat, writes a piece that predicts election results, one is led to wonder if he is working for any of the candidates he discusses. So, in the interest of full disclosure, are you Mr. Vance?
Posted Wed, Apr 21, 10:36 a.m. Inappropriate
Chris, I'm not sure I agree with all of your conclusions but your analysis is a good one and you are more balanced than most other partisan analysts. Good job. I'm an economist so I have a bit of a fetish about this, but I think the big question is how far will the economy turn around over the next 6 months. That will be the ultimate factor.
Posted Wed, Apr 21, 11:59 a.m. Inappropriate
To dn:
I rarely work for candidates and I am not working for any candidates now.
Posted Wed, Apr 21, 12:32 p.m. Inappropriate
Murray is at risk against any Republican who wins the primary.
Murray voted to keep America from using fallen timber from national forests = lost jobs.
Murray voted to prevent America from tapping the 800 billion barrels of shale oil = lost jobs.
Murray votes to continue the moratoria on offshore oil drilling which holds back jobs increasing GDP by $2.36 trillion. www.naruc.org/News/default.cfm?pr=183.
Murray voted to promote green energy jobs over traditional energy jobs = lost jobs (though China thanks you very much for the jobs you created there!). This is because China has a monopoly of the rare earth elements required to make many of the green energy devices. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/01/business/global/01minerals.html?pagewanted=2&_r=1.
Murray supports unrestricted partial birth abortion.
Murray voted to bail out failed banks, insurance companies, and businesses = higher DEBT.
Murray allows the violation of bankruptcy law by stealing money from bondholders so as to give to the unions (Chrysler issue).
Murray blocks tort reform = lost jobs.
Murray is a rubber stamp for the progressives. Every time you see her tennis shoes, think rubber stamps.
Murray is all about spending money, but won't give cutting the out-of-control government a thought.
That's why she'll lose.
Posted Wed, Apr 21, 1:05 p.m. Inappropriate
Logging "fallen timber" has been a euphemism for logging alpine regions that otherwise are out of bounds. We've seen how well that worked with the flooding in Chehalis.
Most Washingtonians don't want offshore oil spills that come with offshore oil drilling. http://www.denverpost.com/business/ci_10015770
Most Washingtonians want to breath clean air and know that burning coal which contributes to acid rain, and mercury in our fish would prefer clean energy. ie Wind and Solar. That's why we voted in the imitative that promotes it.
Most Washingtonians believe that a woman should be in control of her own body and any choices she makes are between her and her doctor.
"tort reform" has been a euphemism for corporations have lower penalties for doing harm. We already don't put the board in jail when their corporation kills people. Money talks and lawsuits are the result of jury trials.
Murray is a rubber stamp for the progressives. Yes I know and that's why I vote for her. She is helping us "progress" to the future where gasoline is $10 barrel and the air is clean yet Washington is a good place to live and work.
Posted Thu, Apr 22, 8:29 a.m. Inappropriate
I'm curious as to what Sen. McCaslin will to in the 4th LD (Spokane Valley). Were he to retire you could easily see Rep. Matt Shea take that seat, which would be a fun dynamic to watch.
Posted Thu, Apr 22, 12:14 p.m. Inappropriate
I'm emotionally prepared for Republicans to win some seats locally, nationally, and throughout the rest of the free world.
But what I really care about is this: Do they have any constructive ideas that will be helpful on planet earth? I'm sure some of them do, and that would be heartening.
Whoever we get representing us, I hope they leave the recent know-nothingism of the Bush years behind (2 wars with tax cuts for the rich, drill-baby-drill, etc). It would be refreshing if they acknowledged the obvious stuff like the seriousness of our environmental problems, and the need for basic, effective public services (including the need for taxes to pay for them).
Obama's approval may only be at 48%, but that's pretty good considering the state of the nation when he was sworn in.
Joe
Posted Sun, Apr 25, 12:57 a.m. Inappropriate
The way Herrera loses to Castillo is by opening her mouth. I saw them at a candidates' forum at Lower Columbia College the other night and there was no contest. The thought of a Herrera/Heck match-up should make any conservative cringe.
Posted Mon, Apr 26, 11:10 a.m. Inappropriate
More evidence of what is going on from Gallup
A recent Gallup poll finds that the partisan ID gap in the first quarter of 2010 is the narrowest it has been since President Bush's re-election. It is the latest in a series of datapoints that suggest that the Democrats are alienating parts of the coalition that enabled them to achieve their outsized majorities.
President Obama and the Democratic Congress inherited an America where self-identified Democrats comprised a majority of the country, and where they outnumbered Republicans 52%-39%. This had been relatively stable from about mid-2006 to the end of 2008. This gap immediately began narrowing, and by the end of last year the Democrats were down to a 47%-42% edge.
Today, the Democrats enjoy a one-point lead in party identification, which is about the edge they held in the 2004 elections. This has significant implications for the 2010 races. The Democrats had argued vociferously that they are not in for a brutal 2010 due to the Republicans' relative unpopularity among the electorate. But this story demonstrates that the advantage is eroding.
To be sure, the Republicans haven't achieved a permanent majority of their own. The number of Republican self-identifiers hasn't improved – instead the number of Republican leaning Independents has increased, while the number of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents has declined.
But nevertheless, this poll shows that the Democrats are increasingly pushing Independents away during the Obama Administration, that these Independents are increasingly aligning themselves, at least for the time being, with the GOP, and that we are back to a pre-2006 electorate. And if we are reverting to a 2004 electorate in 2010, it could represent major losses for the Democrats. In 2004, Republicans won 232 seats; winning just that many seats today would represent a 54-seat pickup for the GOP, which is two seats more than they picked up in the 1994 midterms.
Posted Thu, Apr 29, 6:10 p.m. Inappropriate
Herrera may be the party favored candidate, but that doesn't mean she is best suited to represent the 3rd Congressional District. The GOP has for far too long depended on fronting a favored insider and continues to lose to Democrats.
Many have questioned Herrera's judgment in support of bills and votes cast in the legislature and instead of answers, receive vague comments unrelated to the question.
One of the most telling comments she has ever made showing her disconnect with conservative Republican voters was made to reporters when she red eyed to and from Washington D.C. for a fund raiser with special interests there, during legislative session. She was quoted as saying, "My husband and I rent. We both drive used cars. We're not your typical Republican conservative."
http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/02/herrera_plays_i.php
So what is her idea of a "typical Republican conservative," all rich fat cats like the Dems paint us? Is she so disconnected from the reality of conservatism that she fails to see blue collar America is "the typical Republican conservative" and that many rent and drive used cars?
With two county Republican Parties having now endorsed her, long before even the deadline for candidate filings arrives, much less the primaries, it looks like the GOP is once again pushing for another loss.
It's up to the voters to vet candidates and should they ignore those two county parties and select David Castillo, maybe the GOP will have a decent chance to win one finally.
Maybe that is why Joel Connelly of the Seattle PI recently wrote of the two, after attending the Longview Forum, Castillo "was by far the most articulate and engaging of GOP candidates on stage," while Herrera, "came across as super-serious, self-possessed and somewhat scripted."
http://www.seattlepi.com/connelly/418961_joel24.html
Posted Fri, May 14, 11:51 p.m. Inappropriate
All of a sudden, this statement by Randy Dutton seems pretty idiotic.
"Murray votes to continue the moratoria on offshore oil drilling which holds back jobs increasing GDP by $2.36 trillion."
Funny, how this article was written just 1 day after the biggest oil catastrophe in history.
It's also interesting that Mr. Dutton's LinkedIn profile lists his current occupation as "Oil & Energy | Houston, Texas Area"
http://www.linkedin.com/pub/dir/Randy/Dutton/
Wow, what a surprise.
I can't wait to see all of those Republican campaign signs....
DRILL BABY DRILL
SPILL BABY SPILL
KILL BABY KILL
It should be fairly obvious now that the Republican party is owned and operated by the Oil Industry. Mr. Dutton lists that association proudly. To them, this massive oil disaster is just a small inconvenience. Nothing a few million dollars of public relations campaigns can't fix.
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