A small gain for the red team
A couple mediagenic stories in these closing days, a small one helping Democrats and a big one helping conservative issues. Plus, some tightening polls in Oregon and Southwest Washington.
We're nudging the Crosscut Vote-O-Meter needle a half point to the red side today, following a close contest in trends, polls, and media coverage yesterday.
On the conservative side, there were three positive developments. One was news that former Gov. Dan Evans, a hero to moderates, was making robo-calls for Dino Rossi, thus helping fence-sitting independents to give Dino a more favorable look. A second was a tightening of the polls in the Oregon governor's race, with Republican Chris Dudley now up a whisker over former Gov. John Kitzhaber, who had led by 2-3 points during most of the past two weeks.
A third positive twist was the growing scandal over the role of Democratic mischief makers and Moxie Media in sneakily backing a Republican spoiler in a successful effort by labor unions in knocking Sen. Jean Berkey (D-38) out of her primary. This scandal has legs, and it undermines a main Democratic narrative in this election, namely that Republican moneybags are secretly stealing the election. Nor does the Moxie story help the reputation of unions, a major factor in framing this election.
Almost countering these developments were these factors favoring the liberals. One was a SurveyUSA poll in the Heck-Herrara race for the 3rd Congressional District, where Democrat Denny Heck has recently narrowed the gap with Republican Jaime Herrera to 50-46, pulling that race, which was seemingly in the bag for newcomer Herrera, 31, into a real contest.
The news is mixed in the Smith-Muri race, pitting 14-year incumbent Congressman Adam Smith (D-9) against Dick Muri, a Pierce County Councilmember who has raised very little money in the race and yet trails only 49-46. If Smith, a moderate, is in trouble, then many of the suburban belt Democrats must be; on the other hand, the margin is the same as five weeks ago.
Lastly, there is the amusing (therefore catchy) story about Justice Richard Sanders, the conservative maverick on the state Supreme Court, who was unendorsed by The Seattle Times after making remarks about blacks committing more crimes. Sanders naturally stands by his gaffe, deploring the political correctness of the newspaper that can't stand "the truth," keeping the story alive. The benefit for Democrats is the story helps black turnout, a key in many close races.
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Comments:
Posted Thu, Oct 28, 10:40 a.m. Inappropriate
Credit the Seattle Times for the needle’s tilt into the red zone.
This one has been playing out since July 1 when the paper started its crusade against I-1098 even before petition signatures were submitted. Its opposition to a state income tax, which borders on obsession, has produced ten (and counting) editorials, two editorial board member articles, and three guest articles castigating the proposal. Only two op-eds supporting the initiative have been printed.
Then there are the I-1098 opposition ads the paper is running which are appropriately in red ink. They incessantly beat the drum that you can’t trust government with your money or the mandate in I-1098 that revenues be spent on education and health care. This is probably the worst offense because it plays to a tea party claim. And it disparages and undermines the very essence of representative government which is built on the concept of delegated authority for difficult policy and spending decisions. The Times, of course, can’t censor these ads. But it could have done fact checks on them just as it has on TV ads aired by both sides.
The Times might have instead used some ink on the editorial page to provide context for its across-the-board endorsements of Democrats in congressional races. This is probably extraordinary in the paper’s history and deserves praise. But it could have been supported with an analysis of Republican (Boehner/McConnell orchestrated) gridlock that has helped push this nation’s economy to the brink of the abyss, and why it will only worsen if Democrats loose control of one or both houses. Only one of its editorial writers (Lance Dickie) has ventured into that territory.
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