A red Halloween for the Vote-O-Meter

Mostly bad news for liberals and their causes, and the media narratives that might have touched off a rally seem to have played out.

The Crosscut Vote-O-Meter

The Crosscut Vote-O-Meter

Over the Halloween weekend, the tides were running orange if not red, pushing our needle a point and a half in that direction. It's getting awfully late for the liberal causes in this state, though there is some consolation.

Here are the red-favoring developments. One was the Wall Street Journal interview with retiring Third District Congressman Brian Baird, blasting the Pelosi leadership for its authoritarian ways, cramming through poorly considered health care and financial-reform legislation. Not the kindest thing for the maverick Democrat to do to help Denny Heck in that district, and the candid interview lent more weight to indications that even Democratic voters are clamoring for a change of direction by Team Obama.

Another surprise was polling to indicate how much young voters, charged up about Obama and politics two years ago, have retreated to apathy and a feeling of being unwanted by politicians. There goes another part of the Democratic coalition. These voters had expected to be summoned to help make change, but they feel the political ecosystem put together for the Obama campaign quickly withered, leaving them feeling abandoned.

Partly for this reason, nearly all of the tax-increase measures on the Washington ballot appear doomed, according to the most recent Washington Poll. Eyman's initiative to reinstate supermajority requirements for raising taxes looks likely to pass, the state income tax initiative is likely to fail, and the tax on candy, soda, and bottled water is heading for repeal. I-1100, privatizing liquor sales and opposed by most liberals since it reduces needed income, may squeak to victory.

Meanwhile, the main media narratives in the closing weekend did little to help Democrats in their hour of need. The Jon Stewart rally for "sanity" seems to have been mostly dismissed as a stunt, and it did little to sound moderate themes, as advertised. Gov. Gregoire's triumph in announcing two bids on the waterfront tunnel coming in under the ceiling price was turned into another round of Seattle Mayor Mike McGinn's civil war with the governor. For voters who could see the bid system working and progress being made there were probably an equal number turned off by the latest round of warfare.

Likewise, the Democratic narrative that large corporate interests were stealing the election with their secret donations keeps bumping up against the awkward reality that the three top unions (public employees, service workers, and teachers) have outspent the Chamber of Commerce and Karl Rove and his secretive allies by almost $30 million. In turn, that spending advantage will somewhat minimize Democratic losses.

A loose consensus: Republicans will gain control of the House of Representatives, but not the Senate; Democrats will retain narrow control over Olympia; Republicans will gain one new seat in the state Congressional delegation, Jaime Herrara; Sen. Murray will likely survive; and the next session of the legislature will have many untested new members and less revenue to deal with a huge budget shortfall. Yikes!


About the Author

David Brewster is founder of Crosscut and editor-at-large. You can e-mail him at david.brewster@crosscut.com.

Like what you just read? Support high quality local journalism. Become a member of Crosscut today!

Comments:

Posted Mon, Nov 1, 12:05 a.m. Inappropriate

David,

A quick correction to what you wrote:

"Together, the three government-employee unions will have spent nearly $172 million campaigning for Democrats in the course of this election cycle. That outstrips by more than $30 million what the Chamber of Commerce and the Rove network combined are pouring into the 2010 campaign."

It's 172 million vs. 142 million (at least according to the source).

Of course, at the same time as the three public unions don't encompass all of the union expenditures on this election cycle, neither does the Chamber of Commerce and Karl Rove represent the total spending on the part of business interests. I wonder where the Koch brothers figure in all of this?

I would be careful about cherry picking your examples - we won't actually know what business related election spending was until corporate statements come out next year.

RobC

Posted Mon, Nov 1, 7:12 a.m. Inappropriate

Thanks for the correction. I've corrected the story.

Posted Mon, Nov 1, 9:16 a.m. Inappropriate

"Democrats hungering for a change"

Yah, that would be the left democrats, who wanted an end to both wars, shut down of Gitmo, prosecution of the bankers who committed Fraud with the MBS, and foreclosures, a single payer health plan, or at the bare minimum a public option, an end to the discrimination of Gays and Lesbians specifically the "Don't Ask Don't Tell idiocy.", a public works program similar to the WPA and CCC instead of 99 weeks of unemployment, actual banking reform, like putting back Glass Stengal rules, Federal money for passenger rail, wind and solar technology, an end to the Stem Cell ban.

So the party in power, with a majority in both houses and control of the presidency can't manage a single thing in this laundry list of progressive ideas and that same party wonders why we'd like a change?

Ralph Nader in 2000 was right, there isn't a shred of difference between these two corrupt parties.

And if you think I'm nuts to bring up Ralph, go watch his documentary, "An Unreasonable Man" and tell me that the main stream media isn't in on it too. ie 34,000 people turn out at Madison Sq garden, paying to see a candidate and it makes A14 of the NYTimes. Al Gore never had numbers like that.

GaryP

Posted Mon, Nov 1, 10:27 a.m. Inappropriate

David, so much to fear!! :)

•••

What is the historical track record or polls. I assume that they must be fairly good as polls are so widely used. But what are the facts? Your story is based on polls and imagination. The latter, yours, is always vivid but how about the polls? In general? Over the past 40-50 years?

Posted Mon, Nov 1, 11:36 a.m. Inappropriate

So "media narratives" failed to have their intended results. I bet its because:

1. The "media" has lost credibility and the public takes their "narratives" with a consider-the-source grain of salt.
2. A great many people in this country - thankfully - pay no attention to the masturbations of Hollywood D.C.

BlueLight

Posted Mon, Nov 1, 12:47 p.m. Inappropriate

Readers might also be interested in this interview with Lawrence Goodwyn, a historian with what appears to be a progressive viewpoint.

http://www.alternet.org/news/148582/lawrence_goodwyn%3A_the_great_predicament_facing_obama

The general overview is that the Republicans will win this election but that by 2012 nothing will have been fixed and Obama will get his grove back and finally tell it like it is.... in my dreams.

GaryP

Posted Mon, Nov 1, 1:25 p.m. Inappropriate

garyp, re. ralph. yup, the only honest man, and I lean conservative fiscally. as to mcginns war with gregoire over the tunnel, didn't this tunnel get voted down decisively by the voters in favor of refitting the viaduct? if you want a reason why voters are angry, thats a big reason, a political class who govern by some devine right, oblivious to and contemptuous of the masses. just got back from Paris, lovely city, river down the middle, with highways running along side of it and zero attempt to doll it up with cheesy parks and condos.

beaky

Posted Mon, Nov 1, 4:43 p.m. Inappropriate

You may not have taken into account the GOTV effort mounted by state Democrats and other blue groups. As my grandnephew would say: it's awesome.

Login or register to add your voice to the conversation.

Join Crosscut now!
Subscribe to our Newsletter

Follow Us »