Responding to the points about raising local taxes in #’s 3 & 4:

First, the state legislators have been heaping new taxing powers at local governments for decades. The local tax burdens on people (especially) and businesses have shot up, to unprecedented levels. That will continue, because the taxing class derives power from it. It has nothing to do with Tim Eyman.

Second, I agree that Metro will threaten service cuts. However, that is due to bad management, and not insufficient tax revenue. Metro, Sound Transit, and the transit governments in Pierce and Snohomish counties expect to haul in something on the order of $1.3 billion in local tax revenue this year, the vast majority of which will be sales tax revenue. All their peers do a great job providing good bus service and expanding train systems for their people and businesses with far less annual local tax revenue:

- TriMet (Portland) - $233 million;

- DART (Dallas/Fort Worth) - $385 million;

- San Diego Metropolitan Transit System - $100 million; and

- RTID (Denver) - $241 million.

The taxing for transit here is abusive. Anybody think they can explain why? The last thing the poor managers of those behemoths need is more tax revenue.

Hopefully 2011 will, also, see the taxpayers demanding reconcilitation of two contradictory planks in our state's Democratic Party platform: the "environmental" plank and the "social equity" plank that advocates for illegal immigration. The two are mutually exclusive and should be reconciled before the taxpayers of Washington give more money to doomed "environmental" programs.

Researchers at Oregon State University have reported that the number one threat to PNW salmon and their habitats is immigration into the region, the vast majority of which comes from outside the U.S. and Canada (their words now proven by the census). In fact, these researchers say, without controlling immigration NOTHING ELSE will save our salmon and their habitats.

So, while the Party advocates for increased funding for environmental programs (Puget Sound Partnership, et al), they, programatically, roll out the red carpet for those who would eat the cake we are trying to save.

Until the state government reconciles this dichotomy, taxpayers should resist throwing money at what has - essentially - become jobs programs and political action committees (dressed as "environmental" programs) for the Democratic Party. A good first step? Next legislative session, someone should introduce a bill saying no State or Federal environmental money can be allocated to jurisdictions that have declared themselves "sanctuaries" or, otherwise, implemented policies in support of illegal immigrants.

I would throw in that I believe 2011 will see a shakeup in Seattle schools.

Already on shaky ground, there is yet another state audit coming out (in late January about the management of capital funds and building) that will be as bad as the one in July.

As well, the Superintendent still carries the burden of the 98% vote of no confidence by the teachers, pesky ethics questions (a $7k retirement party that she threw in 2009, her lack of acknowledgment of what boards she sits on) and the 17% lie that she and the director of research and assessment for the district told over several months (and which they allowed elected officials to use) before they were finally outed by the Seattle Times.

That the School Board has largely backed up this behavior may come back to haunt any of the 4 Board members up for re-election in November 2011.

If Dr. Goodloe-Johnson doesn't shape up and the Board continues to support her, we could see a turnover of the majority of the leadership of Seattle Public Schools in 2011.

You ask: Who will succeed Gregoire? I ask: Is this a prediction she won't run again?

"Researchers at Oregon State University have reported that the number one threat to PNW salmon and their habitats is immigration into the region, the vast majority of which comes from outside the U.S. and Canada (their words now proven by the census)."

Any links to back this up? Because NOAA says invasive species OF FISH are the number one threat.

http://www.oregonlive.com/environment/index.ssf/2009/03/invasive_species_are_greatest.html

Here, Sully.

http://oregonstate.edu/dept/fw/lackey/Salmon2100.htm

Thanks for your link. That was interesting, I hadn't seen it. While the author of the newspaper article says non-native species ARE the greatest threat, the actual report says they may be AS BIG a threat as the oft-discussed 4 H's (hydropower, habitat, harvest, hatcheries).

My point remains, if immigration into the region has been identified as (in the OSU study) the biggest threat, it would seem the last thing we ought to be doing is encouraging more of it (if we are serious about saving our Sound). It is no different than encouraging the importation of invasives (to tie back in to your link).

There is a policy disconnect that we should resolve.

What we need is the partial retirement of the Boomer generation. There is still a value in the experience of Mr. Brewster's cohorts, but it needs to be advisory, not authoritative - reasonably paying part time work.

Given Federal budget limitations with a partisan congress it is likely the only way we can tap into additional 'monies' via the Social Security System. Sure, that will quicken break-even point for that fund, but IMO, it's our only chance.

I predict that Cameron, BlueLight, and all of the other right-wingers who post on this blog will keep saying the same tired things over and over (and over and over and over and over).

@ bubbleator:

Haven't you figured it out yet - "Cameron" is a straw-man sock puppet.

Here, I'll prove it. I'll comment on something from the story, and ask Cameron to respond. He won't comment in a cogent manner about this, because he's paid by the beneficiaries of the craptastic taxing regime put in place around here.

Here's a comment on something from #9: "The recession makes job-creation the urgent issue, further empowering the shadow government."

Throughout the past 150 years the way regions have pulled out of recessions is by consumer spending, which creates jobs, and thereby more consumer spending, and more jobs. That healthy cycle is what brings regions out of recessions.

However, we aren't going to experience that around here, to nearly a large enough degree. That's because people and businesses here are being disproportionately hammered by the exceedingly high regressive taxes imposed by our state and local revenue-system designers. We’ve got the most regressive stacked state and local taxes in the country. Olympia’s and Seattle’s government managers target individuals and families with an abusive 9.5% sales tax rate.

Sales taxes that high are a big problem. They act as an economic anchor on the lives of people and locally-owned businesses. That kind of taxing is designed to dampen local economic activity by starving people and local businesses of dollars. Local spending generates the cash flow individuals and families everywhere else can rely on to build personal wealth and get their communities out of recessions. Not here though. Job creation is poor, especially in the small business sector which leads other areas out of recessions.

Sales taxes target the poorest and most vulnerable people in the community. That kind of revenue-raising is designed to eliminate a relatively large percentage of the disposable income of many individuals and families. The poor are supposed to be hurt more by them and they take food off the tables of the economically-weakest households.

There’s an economics principle called the multiplier effect. Money spent locally sloshes around many times in the local economy. Not enough of that happens here. We’re not going to get that here either, unless things change. We aren’t going to experience a robust enough economy because of what would be done with far too much of the tax revenues to be confiscated over the next several decades.

What are your thoughts on that "Cameron"? How about you "bubbleator" - agree or disagree? You can always tell the government propagandists on Crosscut - they refuse to address tax and financing issues.

I agree with your post 95%. Keynes was right, and Greenspan was and is wrong, wrong, wrong.

But while I share your concerns about the way Sound Transit is being financed, I am not as gloomy about the long-term prospect of the NW economy being catastrophically affected by that - recession notwithstanding, we still have a much stronger economy that most of the rest of the county

And this opinion was financially underwritten by no one!

Mr. Brewster,
I posted my 2011 Predictions yesterday, a few are strangely similar (we could have Erica Barnet check the time stamp).
I am calling 2011, The Year of the Hollow Victory.
http://manywordsforrain.blogspot.com/2010/12/predictions-for-2011-year-of-hollow.html

I just don't see Ron Sims coming back to run. It looks like Dow Constantine is having a really good year resolving the situation Sims left behind.
I think you might be a year early for #12, but I think plenty of people might want to skip foreword.

The mayor will not so much shake up his administration as he will be filling holes from people leaving to participate in one of the few growth industries (thanks to the Supreme Court), issue advocate campaign worker. The budget process and having to answer questions from the citizenry is dull and doesn't pay very well (that's code for "this is a sinking ship").

"9. Filling the political vacuum will be a business agenda, largely driven by the Greater Seattle Chamber of Commerce, with allies in labor, minorities, and land-use environmentalists."

In other words, building our way out of the mess? Will the "..the scattered voices for the poor, the unemployed, and social justice.." find their voice? Or even have any clout? Part of me thinks #12 is a pipe dream, and the other part says, "Welcome to a New Year, hope it's not as *#&*#&$$ as the last few."

PS This list is my favorite by far.

I hope Mayor McGinn as a better year in 2011 than he did in 2010. Iif he does the same or even worse, it will be a disaster for the city and the region. Harrell has not been a very impressive council member, and for anyone who thinks that "ethnic appeal" has much weight with Seattle voters any longer, I'd suggest they look back at the careers of Sherry Harris and even Jesse Wineberry...both prime candidates these days only for a local edition of "Whatever Happened To..."

No one I've spoken with in politics or journalism has any thought that Gov. Gregoire will run for a third term. It just doesn't seem to work in Washington. Clarence Martin and Al Rosellini were defeated running for third terms, and Arthur Langlie's three terms were not consecutive. Dan Evans was the only Gov to have three terms back-to-back, and even then (1972) he was helped by some rather questionable campaign tactics used against his opponent, former Gov. Rosellini.

The commenter crossrip is correct that you have to think about the state and local tax burden to do any comparisons, but Seattle is an incredibly cheap place to live in terms of taxes.

Some context on tax burden in Seattle: In 2009 a family of 3 making $75,000 (around the 2009 median income of $67,468) has a combined state and local tax burden of around $4,915, or 6.6% of income. This ranks it 41st in the nation for tax burden of major metro areas at that income level.

Study on state and local tax burdens in metro areas
http://cfo.dc.gov/cfo/frames.asp?doc=/cfo/lib/cfo/09STUDY.pdf

OFM Data on median income:
http://www.ofm.wa.gov/economy/hhinc/medinc.pdf

Rep. Ross Hunter

Ross Hunter -

Thanks for your post and providing those links.

That September, 2010 study out of DC is interesting and is worth a few comments. It is the one that compares tax burdens as a function of income, on a family of three, with both spouses employed.

One thing the tables on pages 8 – 12 of it show is that if that family of three has high income this area is great in terms of taxes. If you look at the lower end of the income scale though this area is near the top quarter of heaviest tax burdens.

What we’ve got is a tax structure targeting the least well-off, young people, and families with several young children. Representative Hunter – why is that viewed by the state legislators as a good taxing policy? If it is not seen as a good taxing policy, what changes would you make to it?

It is no secret that we’re in worse shape now than what that study indicates. People here are hit much harder by taxes than elsewhere in bad economic times. That is due to our relatively large property tax burden and the worst sales tax burden (#2, just behind Chicago). Since the 2009 data for that study were obtained unemployment and underemployment here have gone up, and property values have gone down (which means property tax burdens as a function of property values have increased). If those tables were re-run with current data we here would be worse off than what they show.

In your post above you say the average family income around here is ~$67,000. That figure is an estimate from the OFM chart to which you linked. One thing it shows is household income has been dropping in King County for several years.

That OFM chart also overstates household income in comparison to the DC study, as it includes not just employment income and interest income, but also dividend and rental income, retirement and disability income, employer-paid pension and medical benefits, etc. You can see that from the bottom footnote on that OFM chart. Take those payments out so that the comparison with the DC study income figures are “apples to apples”, and the tax burden would far higher than the 6.6% figure you cite.

Finally, it is important to note why you would want to look at tax burdens the way this study from the Washington DC city government quantifies tax burdens. DC has a high percentage of government workers making relatively high incomes. The cohort you point to in your post (households in this region with $75,000 incomes) also has a much higher percentage of government employees than comparable cohorts elsewhere in the country. Take those high-earner government employees out, and what the rest of us face in terms of tax burdens looks even worse in comparison.

More people will be homeless as a result of foreclosures, losing their Medicaid prescription funding, losing Disability Lifeline and losing Basic Health and not being able to work. We will see more "car camps" in urban parking lots and rural fields. More seniors and people with disabilities will be forced to stay home because of a rise in the cost of a Metro monthly pass from $5 to $27 in three years. Food banks will be overwhelmed, and not just the last two weeks of the month. We will vote to renew the Veterans and Human Services Levy. Banks and other corporations will be challenged to justify their multimillion-dollar tax breaks in terms of the number of people being cut from Apple Health for Children and Basic Health. More people will volunteer to help their neighbors. Value Village and Goodwill will get more donations and have higher sales.

Boo-hoo Boehner and his Tar Babies will enact Pay As You Cut, massively increasing Defense/DHS (which embezzled US at an astronomical +16% a year for a decade now), and massively reducing Fed funding to State and local governments (-$40B already cut, Feds now spend MORE of our savings for DHS/TSA 'pat, err, shake downs' than the Feds spend on Education! So sad!

John (Kohn) Kerry and Global Carbon Caliphate will pass America Power Act of 2011, with his hidden National 'Climate' Tithe-Tax, $100 a month from a tax base of Average Americans who only save $25 a month (do the math) crashing retail back to the 1950's and the 5'n10 days, thus throwing the MAJORITY of US under Royal Chariot of Credit Card Usury Lenders League. All tithe-tax revenues from APAs NCTT are pipelined directly into the US Treasury to underwrite Mil.Gov mafia pension funding, and used for tax rebates to Wall Street Banksters in TRILLIONS Chicago Carbon Trade Caper. Kerry SPECIFICALLY eliminated all reforestation and remediation programs!

Governor Gregoire, having 'bet on the come' and putting it all on '787' will be disappointed once again when Boeing fails to achieve over-water certification for the X-787, and most orders are canceled, plunging the State budget into self-made Black Hole of default as State Unions refuse to allow FTE State employee budget cuts, in fact, demanding their COLA!

Fed tax revenues will fail to materialize on April 15th, resulting in an emergency QE3 by Fed Bernanke, and driving the cost of food and energy out of the reach of the MAJORITY of US, then with no Fed or State aid left unmolested by the Mil.Gov mafia pension funds, we will see street scenes like Ronald Reagan's 1984, mobs of disabled, feeble and mentally ill wandering up and down the boulevards, yelling at the Chosen of GOB.

But we'll have 19 different versions of i-Pads to chose from! Whew!!