Mayor McGinn: bad polls don't tell the full story

Polls can often punish politicians who are leaders. And recent plunges in McGinn's rating may reflect misunderstandings about his effectiveness and ability to work with others

Mayor Mike McGinn and ex-Mayor Charles Royer touting plans to bring fiber-optic Internet lines to Pioneer Square (May 2011).

Jen Nance/Seattle Mayor's Office

Mayor Mike McGinn and ex-Mayor Charles Royer touting plans to bring fiber-optic Internet lines to Pioneer Square (May 2011).

Mayor Mike McGinn, in a visit at Crosscut.

Chuck Wolfe

Mayor Mike McGinn, in a visit at Crosscut.

Polls are not the best way to tell whether an elected official is a leader. In fact, sometimes there is an inverse relationship between leadership and performance on polls. Take the case of the new (grim) polls on Mayor Mike McGinn.

Seattle mayors and city council members mostly do poorly in polls. Greg Nickels, who breezed to a second term, almost always only had about a third of the people asked say he was doing a great job. The city council labors in obscurity, with most councilmembers barely registering on a poll asking about voters’ impressions of their work. Now it's Mayor McGinn's turn, and his favorable rating dropped recently. But does that mean McGinn is in trouble?

The most troubling feature of the poll for the mayor would be the question that asks “Do you have a strongly favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or strongly unfavorable opinion of Mayor Mike McGinn?” The answer isn’t pretty. McGinn's “favorables” seem to be dropping like a stone. That would seem to be a measure that people aren’t happy with the job that he's doing and an indicator that won’t be re-elected.

If democracy is about making and keeping people happy as measured in a poll, I suppose McGinn is in trouble. And there is no doubt he’s angered other state and local officials, who can barely contain their anger and frustration at what appears to be McGinn’s determined obfuscation about the deep-bore waterfront tunnel.

It’s good in politics to play nice with others, an indicator of gravitas. McGinn has also been accused of letting the city run itself, failing to give direction to city departments or fill posts quickly. McGinn’s proposals, critics contend, arrive stillborn at the feet of a city council that has folded its arms and refused to support the initiatives of the errant mayor.

Each of these things, some would argue, translates into the “unfavorable” response by voters in the poll. But let’s apply a different measure.

First, how about the charge that McGinn doesn't play well with others? Consider that McGinn recently collaborated with King County Executive Dow Constantine to solve a sticky criminal justice problem, signing a 20-year agreement with the county to deal with Seattle’s misdemeanor defendants awaiting trial. This is a money saver and a key public safety issue. Rather than shuttling these people around, they will now be held here while they await trial. This makes the idea of another jail, for now, moot. Siting a jail is not something anyone in the city has to figure out — not an easy thing to figure out between two governments, especially if the relationships are poisonous.

Next, the charge that McGinn is neglecting to manage the city departments well. Well, let's take the case of a tough land use issue that recently emerged in the Roosevelt neighborhood. A recalcitrant property owner is in the hunt for big upzones for his property near the new light rail station. Advocates of light rail like density around light rail stations too, but neighbors who are angry with the property owner don’t support upzones on his property. The Department of Planning and Development (DPD) developed a plan with the neighborhood that mirrored their justified resentment of the landowner, keeping heights on his property low.

Enter the mayor, telling DPD that tall towers do not appear consistent with expectations for this neighborhood. At the same time, given the investment in light rail, McGinn called for a closer look at heights above the limits of 40 feet, such as 65 and 85 feet. This is a position echoed by Councilmember Tim Burgess. If this collaboration continues, it could fulfill some hopes that we can move beyond the tunnel war and toward some solutions for land use.

This example leads to the question of whether McGinn can work with the council. There is no doubt that the relationship between the mayor and council has been antagonistic. Nothing unusual here: the executive and the legislative branches of every government in the English-speaking world has had this antagonism at least since 1215 when King John was forced to accede to the Magna Carta, the culmination of a civil war.

But consider the approval of the Family and Education Levy for the ballot by the city council. Even Council President Richard Conlin agrees that this is a big deal, and its passage certainly speaks to the council’s willingness to collaborate — but also to the mayor’s.  Mayor McGinn pushed for lots more money in the levy, more than $200 million total, and the council concurrred.

Mayor McGinn may fail the ultimate test come November of 2013 with voters. But, in the long run, democracy isn’t simply about winning elections; it is also about leadership. Leadership requires working with others, having a strong hand on the wheel of government, and passing and implementing legislation. By those measures McGinn isn’t fading away.

Further, leadership means taking principled stands and asking tough questions.  That kind of leadership can be costly in terms of polls. Sometimes, fortunately, it pays dividends in the long run when people mark their ballots.


About the Author

Roger Valdez is a Seattle researcher and writer. He recently read through Seattle's land use code and blogged about it. He currently directs housing programs at a local non-profit.

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Comments:

Posted Fri, Jun 10, 8:04 a.m. Inappropriate

We'll see if Seattle voters want to give another $231 million to the corrupt, political (social justice!) slush fund that is the Seattle Public Schools.

BlueLight

Posted Fri, Jun 10, 8:07 a.m. Inappropriate

I was thinking about some of these same issues Tuesday night, idling in gridlock along the recently-dietized West Nickerson street. After a few minutes, I shut off my engine, since the traffic jam went from the Ballard Bridge to somewhere on Westlake--I couldn't be sure where it actually ended, since my view was obscured by hundreds of stalled cars, and an occasional bicycle zipping by. Of course many of the savvier drivers were ready with an alternative strategy, just peeling off southbound on the Queen Anne residential streets, dodging traffic islands and pretending they were trying to win the Baja Rally.

Democracy in inaction. Well, not democracy actually, but representative democracy. Certainly this represented leadership--taking a principled stand and asking tough questions. But which questions, exactly? I took some solace in the realization, as the author does, that there is little doubt it will pay dividends in the long run when people mark their ballots.

gabowker

Posted Fri, Jun 10, 8:14 a.m. Inappropriate

If "leadership means taking principled stands and asking tough questions" the Mayor's viaduct twists and turns hardly qualify. We could, I suppose, call the Mayor's stubbornness on that issue "principled," but we could also call it obstructive and perverse, given the months of work, millions spent, and agreements achieved by the rest of local government, including Seattle's City Council, and the state. Hubris never goes down well with voters.

Posted Fri, Jun 10, 8:31 a.m. Inappropriate

If the types of items highlighted by this article are what the Mayor will be running on in 2013 he will, indeed lose--and here's why. The costs and repercussions of whatever replaces the viaduct will not be felt in the next 2 years. And no one ever gets appropriate credit for cost avoidance--such as what we won't have to pay by not building another jail. And while the writer alludes to the Mayor's leadership--the sad reality is, in spite of all the talk about "not leaving our children to deal with government deficits," most voters only care about "what have you done for me lately?" Leadership requires figuring out how to deal with making investments for our long term future. It involves solving problems which will not show any payback before the next election, or even the one after that. Seattle's best demonstration of its distaste for this type of thinking was when we decided 30 years ago to not have light rail--which would have ended up being relatively inexpensive and timely. And while you may say hindsight is 20/20 the truth is few politicians get reelected for their commitment to foresight.

Bobo

Posted Fri, Jun 10, 9:54 a.m. Inappropriate

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAA!

Classic New Urbanist "we know better than you rabble" claptrap.

People like Mr. Valdez prove jerks like Bill O'Reilly right when they call liberals elitists. How depressing.

Posted Fri, Jun 10, 10:44 a.m. Inappropriate

Yeah, Roger, while a lovable guy, personally, is the new lib apologist replacing Rep. Weiner. Never seen a "I'm from the gub'mint, and I know best" apologist like him.

Roger, I want to run my own life.

The Geezer

Geezer

Posted Fri, Jun 10, 11:43 a.m. Inappropriate

Deep Bore Tunnel supporters have big egos and big ideas, but only a small sense of how completely inappropriate the bored tunnel is as a replacement for the AWV. Mercer West is likewise disgracefully poor engineering. The designs for Alaskan Way are more of the same big idea flim-flam, despite the James Corner Fields branding. The DBT is far too risky, but supporters wearing rose-colored glasses refuse to observe, see and admit the danger and the abuse of authority Wsdot & its cronies in the big business community have willfully committed.

Mayor Mike is right.
Wsdot cronies and groupies are wrong.

Wells

Posted Fri, Jun 10, 11:57 a.m. Inappropriate

gabowker,

Don't ask me why I was stupid enough to drive departing guests to the airport, but I discovered trying to get back into town Tuesday morning after a breezy 25 minute trip there and switching on the radio during the 90 minute return trip that the problems with Tuesday's commutes (morning and afternoon) had little to do with this mayor, unless one expects him to "just say no" to mega-motivational seminars scheduled at the incongruently auto-centric Seattle Center during the Great Recession, the reconstruction of the Spokane Street Viaduct, the decommissioning of portions of Alaska Way and the South Viaduct, and numerous summer street repairs, e.g. Dexter.

All those who preceded him have been even more penny-wise and pound-foolish when it comes to public transit, If this had not been so, many many more of those seminar attendees would have arrived on time and only a vast network of buses would have been crowded (buses that resemble SLUT, but that go anywhere faster). On the other hand, if this Mayor were himself as pound-wise as claimed, he might have addressed the shortcomings of Seattle's major gathering space(s) and required that vast armies of attendees arrive on hired buses. He still can.

afreeman

Posted Fri, Jun 10, 3:04 p.m. Inappropriate

Well, if anyone can spin McGinn's miserable poll numbers, I guess it's Roger Valdez. Given that 61 percent of Seattle voters surveyed say they plan to vote against McGinn in 2013, I don't think we'll be enjoying Mike's leadership for too much longer.

Mannix

Posted Fri, Jun 10, 3:23 p.m. Inappropriate

Roger Valdez is to Mike McGinn what Lou Guzzo was to Dixy Lee Ray: A tone-deaf, knee-jerk, fabulist flack for our state's most inept, incompetent elected official in a generation.

Dixy didn't get through her re-election primary. You might not count on the fingers of two hands anyone today who will admit to having voted for her, and Guzzo is a well-deserved object of ridicule. Look forward to your future, Roger.

ivan

Posted Fri, Jun 10, 5 p.m. Inappropriate

Roger: You make a point that I’ve heard other new-urbanism and land-use change advocates make:

"At the same time, given the investment in light rail, McGinn called for a closer look at heights above the limits of 40 feet, such as 65 and 85 feet. This is a position echoed by Councilmember Tim Burgess. If this collaboration continues, it could fulfill some hopes that we can move beyond the tunnel war and toward some solutions for land use.”

You agree that around rail stations there should be a dense and vibrant mix of residential, commercial, and office space, right? So how can you explain Joni Earl’s position that parking facilities for cars near train stations are needed?

“Joni Earl, executive director of Sound Transit, made the point, noting her agency needs more park-and-ride spaces to meet demand.”

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/editorialsopinion/2015278624_lance10.html

That's an incongruity - it seems like you, McGinn, Burgess, and most urban planners are at odds with Joni Earl. Can we explain her position as stemming from a narrow interest (building ridership in the near term), and the "upzone" advocates' position as one based on more holistic urban growth practices?

Earl's push for park and ride facilities would entail significant capital and operating costs, including the acquisition of large numbers of additional properties. Anyone think a big new public financing and spending program of that sort would be a reasonable undertaking?

crossrip

Posted Fri, Jun 10, 7:31 p.m. Inappropriate

I thank the gods that McGinn is doing what he can to stand up to the tunnel lobbies. Ever heard of Peak Oil? Ever thought of where most oil comes from (hint: not the U.S.A.) Ever thought about what we trade for that oil (answer: pieces of paper, or nowadays electronic blips, called dollars, now being created by the trillions and rapidly diminishing in value.)

Just what do people think a gallon of gasoline will cost if and when the tunnel is completed?

Last I heard, the tunnel digging machine for the pipes from "Brightwater" was still stuck somewhere under Lake Forest Park. Putting the toilet so far away from the Sound was crazy. Digging a hugely expensive tunnel for cars when few may have the means to fuel them by the time it's finished is beyond crazy. Please don't tell us we'll all be zipping around in electric or hydrogen powered vehicles by then. We won't.

I hope and pray that McGinn can stop that particular madness. If not, the most likely scenario looks to be getting it partway built but never finished, and sticking Seattle with the colossal bill.

Might not be a bad idea to divest oneself of any taxable property in Seattle before that happens if this tunnel madness isn't stopped.

Posted Fri, Jun 10, 8:03 p.m. Inappropriate

Roosevelt neighbors weren't against the upzone just because it was Sisley asking for it. Not that it helped. But I wouldn't characterize them as out for revenge.

Posted Fri, Jun 10, 8:11 p.m. Inappropriate

"It’s good in politics to play nice with others, an indicator of gravitas."

No, it's an indicator of politeness and basic decency, Roger.

Seneca

Posted Sat, Jun 11, 12:16 p.m. Inappropriate

I'm not sure your phrase "McGinn’s determined obfuscation" means quite what you were hoping.

P.S. To write about the mayor's polling you drag in the Magna Carta? Really?

Posted Sat, Jun 11, 2:09 p.m. Inappropriate

In response, top to bottom:
Roger, you've got the job as McGinn campaign volunteer, congratulations.
Bluelight, has his cake and complains about it, too.
gabowker, the invisible bus awaits.
mikejames, so true.
Geezer, we all want to run our own lives. Societies figure out ways to do that cooperatively (see mikejames' post as to why McGinn is failing).
Wells.
afreeman, what, no gondolas?
Wilbur_Watson, sometimes are not this time, does McGinn still have time to get a next time? I don't think so.
Mannix, "too much longer"? He would have to start, first.
Ivan, you have used "Guzzo" twice this week, I laughed both times.
Crossrip, upzone cheerleaders don't want to pay to create the private parking required for the results of these developments, and are pretending that the CT park & ride north of the county line isn't there.
Snoqualman, did you give $500,0000 to Tim Eymann?
Lukoff, you are right, and revenge happens after something actually happens (not a McGinn strength).
Seneca, more mikejames.
Guest, yes, really.

Lastly, Roger, don't sully Dow Constantine's name by dragging him into your parallel universe to prop up McGinn, Dow deserves better than that.

Mr Baker

Posted Mon, Jun 13, 6:13 a.m. Inappropriate

The headline is right: When it comes to Mayor McGinn, bad polls don't tell the whole story - things are much worse than than McGinn's bad poll numbers.

It seems pretty clear at this stage that McGinn does more harm than good for the progressive causes he champions.

The big issue isn't whether McGinn will be re=elected, it is how much damage he'll do to the city between now and the next election.

Jan

Posted Mon, Jun 13, 9:40 a.m. Inappropriate

McGinns' re-election or not also depends heavily on who runs against him. Tim Burgess seems to be gathering his forces, and yet he's not conservative enough for those tunnel boosters. So the anti McGinn vote may get a three way split with Burgess not making it to the final election.

Also note the article "bicycles zipping by stalled traffic." Well, doesn't that say something about the bicycle strategy of the city, and the Mayor? You'd think that folks paying $4/gal might get a clue that there are alternative ways around this city. Obviously a drive to the airport isn't one of them, but if you had but known the traffic situation, a drive to a Light Rail station might have been an reasonable alternative. (drop off your passengers there.)

A lot can happen in the next year. We still have the largest banks in the country insolvent, we are still involved in 3 major wars, jobless rates are still in the official 9% range. And the more people I talk to about the tunnel, then wonder why the state is pushing to go ahead with the project.

GaryP

Posted Mon, Jun 13, 3:30 p.m. Inappropriate

Gary P, right, you can bet I will be training guests to complete their trip to the airport from a convenient LR station, assuming I can find one that fits the bill. Arriving guests are not so easy to resolve. Any ideas?

Message to command central, "if people had only KNOWN of the traffic situation" a day-long mega-seminar at Seattle Center would create. But if you do that the next time, the combination of the the first mess and the advance warning are likely to create a situation that only Cary Moon seems to take into account around here (people ARE funny, and also understand economics quite well at the personal level).

afreeman

Posted Mon, Jun 13, 9 p.m. Inappropriate

OK, I understand your reasoning Roger Valdez.

Yes means no. Down means up. And bad poll numbers mean good electoral prospects. And for some illogical reason, cite Nickel's bad poll numbers in his FIRST re-election bid. (Oh, he had bad poll numbers the next time, too. And was humiliated. Remember?)

If it meant I was voting against McGinn in the next election, I would gladly cast my vote for a drunken monkey.

NealMedia

Posted Tue, Jun 14, 9:03 a.m. Inappropriate

afreeman: Arriving guests, pick them up at Westlake. You can park in the Pacific Garage fairly cheaply for the 1/2 it will take you to park, walk down to the LINK level and back up with guests.

This assumes of course that you have guests that are mobile, ie not needing your assistance moving bags etc. For that you could park in the same place, and ride down to meet them.

My other thought was that the Stadium station for the drop off. It's not nice etc, but it's nearly always vacant. But time of day is a big issue of course, and when my guests arrive after the commuter rush is over, I too drive them down to the airport.

If you are North of the city, WHEN the station at Northgate is finished that will work well for this.

And I agree with you, when there is an event that causes everyone to drive when I also want to drive, it totally sucks. Fortunately for my blood pressure I adopt a zen attitude, of I'll get where I'm going when I arrive. For you I'd have gotten off I-5 as soon as possible and driven up surface streets. It's usually better than stalled traffic.

GaryP

Posted Tue, Jun 14, noon Inappropriate

GaryP,
Thanks for your thoughts. I can assure you that zen was exactly how we thought as we breezed along puzzling over the stand-still never-ending in the northbound lanes. Also when it finally dawned on me to take what used to be the normal way home, which had to be better than I-5. It was, but for all the construction.

Timing is the problem I see with arriving guests—primarily giving & receiving instructions over a cell phone—could be why Charlie "never returned." The stations I have in mind for drop-offs are ones where the path to the train is visible and obvious, assuming there might be at least one in the lot, down where the line runs on the surface.

afreeman

Posted Tue, Jun 14, 2:47 p.m. Inappropriate

I recommended the Westlake station for the pick up because it's at the end of the line. So the instructions are simple, get on, ride to the end, get off.

The stadium station is very visible, no platforms to climb etc, should be easy to drop off curb side, going East on S. Royal Brougham Way. But not at game time!

GaryP

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