I've just put up a 'recruit Brian Sonntag for Governor' page on Facebook.

http://www.facebook.com/pages/Brian-Sonntag-for-Governor/231000276926984

I would suggest that Sonntag is unlikely to run because he the Tacoma backers he has relied upon have informed him that they are committed to Inslee. That includes two former mayors and at least a half dozen legislators and former legislators from Pierce County with whom he has had conversation. With one exception, they encouraged him NOT to make a run.

I put the odds that he enters the race at just under 30%.

So all the entrenched establishment types are lining up to oppose Sonntag? All the more reason to vote for him. Inslee is one of the people who got the state into this mess. It's hard to imagine that voters would opt for more of the same, but Washington voters do have a pronounced masochistic streak in them.

Jay Inslee has a much better chance of winning the Governor's race than Brian Sonntag does. Most Democrats are unlikely to feel any allegiance to a candidate who has endorsed Republicans like Susan Hutchison and who has been cozy with Tim Eyman and the BIAW.

Jay's statement of not running in a contested primary I think was more that he would not run if Governor Gregoire decided to rerun. Now that she has decided not to go for a third term, the decision is a lot clearer.

Inslee does not recommend himself by saying he will go away if opposed in the primary. This suggests a similar commitment to progressive values as that of the present governor.

People are still sloppy when they talk about a "contested" primary - now that means there are at least two candidates. I an sure that Inslee was talking about not running against Gregoire.

Sonntag complied impressive margins in the auditor's race running against ... I'm not sure. In any case a run for Governor would be a different kind of race. He seems a very limited candidate to me.

I remind the writer and others that there will not be a "Democratic primary" for this or any other office. We have a Top 2 system that advances the two most popular primary vote-getters, without regard to party preference. No party gets a guaranteed November slot for their "nominee." Presumably, but not necessarily, we will see a traditional R & D matchup in November.

Ammons is right. The top-two factor is mentioned in the story. As a practical matter, though, the odds strongly favor the top two 2012 gubernatorial candidates being a Democrat and Republican. And candidates continue to think in terms of their parties' primaries as a necessary first step toward election. It is conceivable, of course, that in this strongly Democratic state the general-election gubernatorial finalists occasionally could both be Democrats.

This system fits within our state's electoral traditions. It would be unthinkable, though, in most other places. My own preference is for strong, accountable parties. A top-two system takes us in the opposite direction.

What is interesting is that Mr. Sonntag is a fiscal conservative, the very voters that Mr. McKenna needs to win. Mr. McKenna is currently busy collecting the base social conservative vote by his comments about being against Gay marriage, and his suit against ObamaCare. But you can't win WA with just the social conservatives, you need the fiscal conservatives as well.

A social liberal, fiscal conservative could very well win in WA. And Mr. Sonntag currently fits that bill.

I think a Sonntag-McKenna race would be really interesting and fairly substantive for voters. Maybe I'm a Pollyanna, but I think both guys are grownups who would run fairly clean campaigns. Both have proven they're popular statewide. Both have pretty good credibility with large numbers of voters.

I don't think Jay Inslee, despite his having served as the Fourth Congressional District representative, can beat Rob McKenna in eastern Washington. He'll be painted as a Seattle liberal and that'll kill him in places like rural northeastern Washington. I don't think he'll win big enough in western Washington to allow him to carry the state.

Sonntag, on the other hand, can point to his work trying to hold state government accountable. That could play well east of the Cascades and balance McKenna's claims that he's been a good consumer advocate as attorney general.

Steve Zemke's comment is yet another reminder to all of us why he is irrelevant and is interested in his own zany ideas more than he is in facts.

A good number of Democrats all over Washington are far more interested in pragmatism than ideology and would support Sonntag vs. Inslee. Jay is a fierce partisan, while Brian has appeal to a great many Democrats and Republicans. He's a Democrat who doesn't toe the Democrat Party line, which frustrates folks like Steve who insist candidates goose step in unison to whatever tune the far left calls.

If Sonntag and Inslee run, expect the hyper-partisan slime machine to ratchet up and run full blast against Brian. He will be vilified most not by Republicans, but by the angry, closed-minded extremist faction of his own party.

Steve--some advice: Spend more time outside Seattle and King County talking to people who don't look at the world the same way you do. Experience diversity!

"you can count all the votes you need from the top of the space needle."

Anyone running for governor of WA has to heed that observation. Which is why McKenna is doooooooomed. He used to be seen as a moderate Republican, but with first his lawsuit against ObamaCare, and then his statements against Gay Marriage, he lost those "Space Needle" voters. ObammaCare may be a disaster (IMO it is.) But the Progressives see the lawsuit as not improving it's problems but a request to return to the status quo, which clearly isn't working. Add an attack on their social agenda and that's it, you're done.

An Inslee vs Sonntag final runoff vote would be interesting because it leaves the social conservatives sitting on the sidelines pouting. Who knows if they would be mad enough to just skip that portion of the ballot. Question is, are there more social conservatives than fiscal conservatives to propel McKenna vs Sonntag to the finals?

Inslee getting in is about 95%+, he has really all but announced. Sonntag will come under huge pressure not to run for Governor.

To call either Steve Zemke or Jay Inslee extremist would be funny if it weren't sad. If only we'd had a few more extremist/far-left Dems in the Legislature this year. If only we had a few more extremist/far-left Dems among the state electorate. If only we had more of them in the country.

If only the world had more people who agreed with me, what a better place it would be...

Got hubris?

In order for a Democrat to beat McKenna, that person would need massive amounts of votes, camapaign volunteers, and donations from the lefty land of Seattle. Inslee would get that; Sonntag not so much. I suspect Brian will do his due diligence and sign up for re-election as auditor.

In order for Sonntag to beat Inslee he would need strong support in Pierce and Kitsap Counties. When he endorsed Susan Hutchinson and allied himself with the BIAW, he alienated his former supporters in the 6th Congressional District. He can no longer count on a COPE endorsement or support from the IAFF, IBEW, IAM or ILWU and blue collar union support has been critical to past victories.

Inslee already has a strong support in Kitsap, Pierce and Thurston Counties and maintains a base in and around Yakima where he is highly regarded for his work opening the Japanese market to Washington fruit growers. One should also not discount his support among Native Americans throughout the state for his work on river enhancement.

Sonntag knows all this but hopes that if he postures as a possible Inslee opponent he can broker additional support for his re-election bid.

Hubris, BThornton, is overconfidence. Wishing something were the case is simply...wishing.

Quiller, I think it would be prudent to start paying attention to the Latino voter demographics on the east side. I believe they have been regularly ignored, but the population growth might suggest these folks will have clout in the coming election cycles. I do wonder if they are being adequately represented in polling. This would certainly impact east-side voting results and the potential success of a Democratic or GOP candidate. I am curious if we might soon experience what Nevada surprisingly discovered in its last election.

BS for Governor! Great sign; which party?
This fellow is enamored with himself and is he worst kind of political opportunist. Has this career politician ever held a real job? That means one where he produced a service, good or intellectual property on his own without a legion of legislative analysts, lawyers and accountants propping him up? Love to know about it because he has been feeding at the trough for thirty years and doen't seem to have missed a single meal his entire career! Looks like Hailey Barbour. Brian needs to wait for Norm Dicks to retire and answer his true calling: the House Dining Room!

Remember Jay Inslee was a State Legislator (and a lawyer) from Selah in the State House before he served in Congress. His affinity for Eastern Washington is deep seated and genuine, not contrived. My support goes to Inslee, strait up.

@Van Dyk - though I share your dedication to accountable parties I love the top two system. The biggest reason is that they allow political races to be open debates at the primary level that end with the selection of the 'top two' candidates - without third party problems in the final.

The type of leadership Brian provides, socially liberal, fiscally accountable is what we need - McKenna runs on a similar message but his party makes him less effective at delivering same than does Sonntag's. I also question whether McKenna remains as practically committed as he once was. This election will say a lot about that.

We likely aren't going to see meaningful reform in 2012 national races, however there will be a few states where the seeds of what that eventually will be will appear. Let's hope Washington is part of the solution, and not part of the problem as it currently is under Gregoire and 'associates'.

Democratic extremism - supporting education for all, not just those that can afford private schools or colleges; fair taxes that don't just benefit corporations or the wealthy while eliminating basic services for the needy and less fortunate; support for public health and safety; clean air to breathe and clean water to drink; a sustainable economy that creates liveable wages for all, not just a few at the top - the list goes on, but if this is extremism so be it. I confess I'm guilty.