Wake up, folks! Bill Stafford's parting shots on the region's economy

The author, stepping down from directing the Trade Alliance of Greater Seattle for the past 20 years, distills what he has learned, warns against local complacency, and issues some stiff challenges to leaders and voters.

Bill Stafford of the Trade Development Alliance is the guru of Seattle intercity visits

Citiwire

Bill Stafford of the Trade Development Alliance is the guru of Seattle intercity visits

John Wayne in one of his classic westerns was riding into the sunset after retirement from the cavalry when a rider caught up with him and said he had a position with the army as a scout. On July 1 I will also ride toward the sunset (although not entirely leaving the movie). I have heard a few hoof beats, but that may be a posse.

I have been fortunate for the past 20 years serving as president of the Trade Alliance, responsible for promoting our metro area’s international economic interests. I have been also serving on the Economic Development District Board that oversees our economic strategy as well as university, community college, museums, PortJobs, and other involvements. It has been an excellent platform to watch how this community works.

The Trade Alliance is one of only a few organizations that transcend the metro area. It is also one of the most complicated, being composed of leaders from business, government, and education. It tried to occupy the ground above the fragmentation of our  government structures, our siloed business interests, partisan value differences, and competitive rivalries. My associates told me 20 years ago that it would not survive, that I would have too may balls to juggle.

Twenty years ago the global economy was very competitive as the world emerged from the Cold War. Former Chamber President George Duff saw the change and created the Trade Development Alliance concept based on a Dutch model. Today, the fight for economic success and jobs is even greater and this trend will continue. The American public is beginning to recognize the changed circumstances, and the unfortunate reaction has been growing protectionism. On one hand people want cheap goods, and on the other hand a job.

These changed circumstances will require strong leadership at the national, state, and local level as we adjust our institutions for a new century. Here are some observations on these challenges, gleaned from 20 years of being on the front lines.

First discovery: The metropolitan area is the basis of success in the global marketplace, but ours doesn't really function that way. No one in Munich or Shanghai knows that 145th  is the north Seattle boundary and 205th the county boundary. On globes, we are a big blob, known as Seattle. The blob has over 80 cities, four counties, and many more special districts and agencies. It is complicated. There is no single platform for metro leadership, requiring a collaborative approach.

How the metro system works is critical to economic success. It is our global brand or image. We need to reexamine our local structures that were created during a horse and buggy era. Can we have a competitive economy with 19th century institutions?

Second axiom: We need to be more strategic about our economic future. The economy is the hub of most world-city strategies. Transportation, land use, and other strategies build off of economic strategy. How will we employ our citizens needs to be a greater part of the local conversation, along with sustainability and how to preserve the social safety net. We just went through a legislative session where education, research, and economic development were low priorities. Rather than thinking long-term, we have allowed the next election and the next quarterly report to rule our society.

Third principle: Our region is intertwined with the global economy whether we like it or not. Microsoft, Boeing, Starbucks, PACCAR, Port, universities, Gates Foundation, PATH — all our institutions are doing business or work all over the world. If you are a barber or a barista, one in three customers is paying from the international work.

So what did I learn? We do not study what our competitors are doing. We feel our system is the best so we can ignore others. The role of government is different in these other countries, and we need to understand this. Our companies must compete against government agencies. Elsewhere, many countries have coherent strategies to penetrate our markets and to develop local products to eliminate imports from us. They allow intellectual property theft; they strongly assist with subsidies to attract investment.

We can no longer ignore competitive practices with others, and building walls does not work. For now, our companies are torn between competitive imperatives and being good corporate citizens.

Next, we must recognize that all our international business interests are interrelated — marine ports and air cargo, goods and services, international students, investment attraction, and tourism. The Trade Alliance integrated all of these in its promotional activity. We need to keep our current customers pleased while we focus on markets of the future. Personal relationships are important. We need to pool resources in tight times and not return to a model of having one person on each organization’s staff who spends all their time coordinating with counterparts. We need to allow our elected officials who set our business climate to go on business and study missions to better understand what is happening in the world and promote and connect our region. A local official who takes such a trip is fired. Overseas, a local official who is not out selling his or her city is fired.

I learned that we have enormous assets in our region but we cannot be smug. We have a great port and logistics complex. We have two of the world’s top research universities. We have leading institutions in biotech, clean energy, retail, aerospace, outdoor recreation products, global development, tourism — as well as mature industries of agriculture, fishing, and wood products. We are blessed. Sadly, this feeds complacency. For instance, our research universities are the heart of this economy so we should be strengthening them, not starving them of funding.

Ask the candidates for their economic strategy and programs that will assist our economy. You do not need bicycle lanes if there are no jobs.

The West Coast representative for Enterprise Scotland recently spoke to a Trade Alliance committee. He started by noting he was Scotch and they were tight with their money. Scotland has 5.2 million people and Washington State 6.7 million. The agency has 390 personal promoting trade and investment while we have fewer than 40. The agency's metrics were impressive in terms of job creation. By contrast, "Invest in America" in our Commerce Department has three personnel. 

So here are some things you can do to respond to these challenges. As you examine the campaign websites during this election cycle, go to the coffee hours and listen to the speeches, ask the candidates for their economic strategy and programs that will assist our economy. You do not need bicycle lanes if there are no jobs.

We have recently been told that the state’s revenue forecast was overstated so the prayers that the economy would revive on its own were not answered. The return to an over 9 percent unemployment rate was not encouraging. The unemployment rate for those with a high school degree or less is woeful. The social agencies are learning that without revenue, there is no service.

And remember, a good speechwriter can mask the fact that the words paint a movie set. It’s the budget and personnel assigned that are important. I recently heard an excellent speech on the economy of a part of the country where the government has eliminated most of its commitment to economic development. Look at the budget. As one government official once said, “You will be better advised to watch what we do instead of what we say.” 


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Comments:

Posted Mon, Jun 27, 9:33 a.m. Inappropriate

Nice piece, Bill. You'll remember me from way back when when you were working for Charlie and I was with Bill Hudnut. Having lived out here for 13 years now, I'd add that Seattle metro really needs to get off its high horse, the politicians on both sides need to do more than just squirting each other, focus on things that are necessary and not on things that would be "nice to have." Your bike lane comment sums it up. The quarterly forecasts have to have an influence on policy, which means priorities must be set, not sacred cows to be protected. Last time I checked, the Nisqually earthquake was more than 10 years ago....how's that viaduct replacement thing going? NYC built the Manhattan part of the subway system...all of it....within a 10 year period, despite a small interruption known as WW I. Different political times, of course, but they got it done. 520 bridge replacement? Every interest group of one had to be consulted....ridiculous. Anyway, enough of me. Good luck to you!

Posted Mon, Jun 27, 10:06 a.m. Inappropriate

I don't know who NWC is but agree completely with him and with Mr. Stafford's analysis. Good job bill and I'll be watching for Rooster.

ctb

Posted Mon, Jun 27, 10:17 a.m. Inappropriate

James Farley's view of our area was summed up with his 1936 quote as the Postmaster under FDR that the USA was comprised of 47 states and the 'Soviet Republic of Washington'. Even today, the Seattle region is overly unionized and dependent upon monopolistic corporations, non-profits, and oversized governmental bureaucracies. The area is very hostile to small business and individual business success. Competition and 'level playing fields' are negated by crony capitalism favoring the large named institutions in this article (add Amazon). The 9% unemployment rate lingers on despite favoritism given to the big fish. Maybe we can learn something from North Dakota and Nebraska regarding jobs and long term expectations.

animalal

Posted Mon, Jun 27, 12:50 p.m. Inappropriate

Bill, you dance around the fact that the state's got no money. We aren't going to have an expanded trade promotion mission in a state government that's laying people off right and left. Hint: cutting money for bike lanes isn't going to get you much except Republican fans and Democratic scorn.

Also, I'd be interested in your ideas for how to address the regional tension between the Seattle, King County, and the rest of the state -- who seem to love to stick it to us, even though they're hurting themselves in the processs. Economically, we'd be a lot better off if all of King County were a single Greater Seattle with a central government and budget willing to make tradeoffs and think strategically.

DannyK

Posted Tue, Jun 28, 8:31 p.m. Inappropriate

You also don’t need bicycle lanes if the bicyclists aren’t going to use them…in my neighborhood, I am routinely confronted with bicyclists riding on the sidewalk, even though marked bicycle lanes are but a few feet away…and we’re talking about a 25 mph street!

bricsa

Posted Tue, Jun 28, 9:57 p.m. Inappropriate

My point was that bike lanes aren't very expensive and anybody who says we're going to pay for expanded trade outreach by cutting funds for bike lanes is just being silly. It's just popular in some circles to mock bike lanes because they are the mark of the Devil (whose name is spelled Mike).

DannyK

Posted Thu, Jun 30, 12:04 p.m. Inappropriate

I'm surprised this piece has drawn such little comment. Maybe that means most readers agree with Bill -- I do. DannyK makes a great point about regional government for/via King County. Something tells me its inevitable in some form, for all the reasons cited above.

And on our poor little bike lanes....
Gosh, they really are the whipping boy of the moment. Funnt too because Bill remarked on the Dutch model of industrial strategy --- If you travel in Holland you'll notice all the bikes co-existing with cars, world-class industry AND the environment. It's very impressive all around, and it will pop any knee-jerk "We're #1" ballon real quick. So yeah, our bike/car culture is still evolving, but I'm sure people will figure it out in time. More importantly, we could learn a lot from the Dutch.

jsperry

Posted Thu, Jun 30, 2:20 p.m. Inappropriate

Hey, I happen to know that the bike lanes were used by 10,000+ bicyclists during "Bicycle To Work Month." That represents a pretty large group of users, for which the city spends 3% of it's streets budget on. And happens to be about 3% of the total commuters. It's another red herring to cr*p on a mode of transportation as if it would fix the unemployment situation.

As for moving toward protectionism, it's about time. A local company which has to comply with the environmental rules, like not dumping it's wastes in the Duamish river for free with a company in some place like Mexico where you can dump whatever, can't compete. It's not an even playing field. We should enact an "Environmental cost" tariff to even things out.

GaryP

Posted Thu, Jun 30, 2:57 p.m. Inappropriate

"The metropolitan area is the basis of success in the global marketplace"

Yet one place where it should work, the Port's of Tacoma, Seattle, Everett, Bremerton, and Bellingham should work together to bid for shipping etc. Each has something unique to offer, yet they function as independent entities that bid against each other and yet to a shipper they are nearly the same place, Puget Sound (or the Sammimish Sea) All to our detriment. One can explain why this animosity exists historically but it makes no sense going forward. We get beat out by Long Beach and Prince Rupert when if they worked together we could whip their shipping hands down.

Next we argue over spending 3Billion on a downtown Seattle tunnel, when clearly if we spent that money connecting the region via Light Rail and Rapid Bus service, we could let our brightest people work where they are most needed. (of course one has only to re-read the numerous postings by Cross-cut as to how the financing of this has enriched bond salesmen at the expense of the taxpaying and riders.)

GaryP

Posted Mon, Jul 4, 5:29 p.m. Inappropriate

The bicycle lane comment is very apt metaphor for all ultra-local, ultra-parochial issues.

Seattle-to a huge extent-and all Washington voters to a great extent simply don't vote for candidates who talk about trade and business related issues. Whether at the school boards, or the cities, or the counties, or metro or the state legislature voters want to vote for politicians that make them feel like they are morally superior voters. (Education, peace, green stuff, etc.) However these very same voters much more self serving when it comes to personal income tax, enabling tax increases, or public officials going on trade missions.

I suggest that Puget sound voters are going to have to experience a lot more economic deprivation before they will be as keen as the Scots to do business with Johnny Foreigner.

peter d

Posted Wed, Jul 6, 7:59 a.m. Inappropriate

Bill, good piece. (I didn't know you could write.) And many thanks for your years of good service to the city and region.

Phil705
Winthrop WA

Phil705

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