Deeply boring: Moving on from tunnel fatigue
With the tunnel vote behind us, can Seattle finally agree to shift its energy from deep bore to public transit?
Washington State Department of Transportation
The final votes have been cast—if not counted—in the election to approve or reject Referendum 1. All sides agree that this is the first up or down vote on the proposed deep bore tunnel option to replace the crumbling Alaskan Way Viaduct. One thing is for sure: No matter what the final vote count, we should all be winners; now we can move on to other big issues. If the tunnel is rejected, the supporters should back off. If the referendum is approved, opponents have done due diligence and supporters will reap the whirlwind of a financially troubled project. It’s time to move forward to tackle the bigger issues in our region, especially ensuring the success of light rail.
Let’s look at the post-election reality. We can now dismiss the idea that the tunnel is a win for all sides. In a previous discussion, I called the tunnel a devil child, born of the bizarre union of the Waterfronter party and the Capacity Crowd. The perverse beauty of the thing was that it gave architects and planners a chance to salivate over the great public spaces that could be created in place of the demolished viaduct, while tunnel advocates saw a replacement for freight and cars. But the participants in this compromise have already spent too much valuable time and money name-calling and bashing each other over the head with facts and figures .
And don’t forget the financing. Remember the Monorail, a project that fell apart when it became clear that the project was funded, essentially, with a 99-year mortgage and crazy interest rates? The Referendum 1 campaign exposed the tunnel’s complex financing scheme, which makes Monorail financing look like an ATM withdrawal. The tunnel includes bonds against sketchy toll revenue, financing contingent on state and federal dollars, and money from a federal government that’s about to empower a Super Committee to reduce debt. The recent downgrade of the United States’ AAA bond rating doesn’t help. As local credit ratings get downgraded the cost to borrow will get even higher (Tacoma’s bond rating has already been lowered). Budget shortfalls caused by increased costs of borrowing—along with budget cuts can put the project into tilt mode. The tunnel won’t happen; no matter how many votes we take.
But even so, if Referendum 1 is rejected, the Council will likely try to push it through, financial problems notwithstanding. And if the tunnel is rejected, opponents might want to soldier on.
That’s my greatest concern about the election: It won’t matter. Tunnel warriors will simply regroup, and lawyers, politicos, and others will stoke the fires for the next tunnel battle.
Sadly, because of our narrow focus, we’ve ignored far more important issues. Our greatest potential for progress in the region — for business, jobs, increasing tax revenues, and reducing environmental impacts — hinges on another big project: Light rail. Until the region gets its act together on supporting appropriate land use decisions and zoning around light rail stations, all we’re doing is building a fancy toy train.
As a city we should be channeling our civic energy into an animated and intense discussion about land use and zoning, especially around light rail stations — a debate that would find many tunnel antagonists back on the same side, pressing for more density around light rail stations. Let's shift our attention to create a firm and clear zoning policy decision that will apply to all station areas, rather than fighting them one neighborhood and parcel at a time, as we did the tunnel.
Whatever the final outcome, it should also be the final verdict, allowing citizens of Seattle to move on and to fulfill the promise of light rail. Personally, I will feel good that the Mayor stood up and asked tough questions about the project, even as I accept public decision or city council override. Even though I think it's wasteful, I can live with the proponents pushing on with it — especially if Seattle shifts its energy toward making light rail work.
Both sides of the tunnel need to reassess. It is time to set aside the project and the debate. The tunnel has drained away our energies for too long. Too many smart, motivated people have burned up too many hours fighting for or against it.
As Lincoln said at Gettysburg, let's “take increased devotion to that cause for which they gave the last full measure of devotion.” That devotion, from both sides, is the improvement of our city. The tunnel fight won’t have been in vain if we can jump on the light rail opportunity. I hope we do and that a week from now we’re not back at it again, grinding ahead, digging deeper into that big hole called the tunnel.
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Comments:
Posted Tue, Aug 16, 6:15 p.m. Inappropriate
Comparing the slaughter, and resulting rhetoric, of Gettysburg (and the issues that sparked our near-miss with disunion) and our little transportation issue is a bit over the top, Roger.
Try something a bit more modest--like, maybe, "Can't we all just get along?"
Or even more succinct and suiting: "That's all, folks!"
Posted Tue, Aug 16, 6:24 p.m. Inappropriate
The author cautions: "And don’t forget the financing." Too bad he failed to describe the abusive financing plan Sound Transit employs!
I like trains as much as the next guy, but not at the cost of grossly excessive and regressive taxing.
The capital costs of ST2 were estimated at $13.5 billion in that 2008 ballot measure (YOE$). That measure also estimated $6.4 billion of long term 40-year bonds would need to be sold to cover those capital costs. Alone among its peers, Sound Transit issues bonds backed by pledges to collect heavy sales taxes at or near the maximum rates while any bonds remain outstanding. That means this unique, and uniquely punishing, plan for paying for trains will result in tax confiscations over the next 40 years of something on the order of $85 billion.
NOBODY finances light rail using new regressive taxing on that magnitude (hundreds of dollars per year per family for decades). Plenty of regions build out light rail at little or no new tax costs to the people there.
The unaccountable appointees on Sound Transit's board are hiding the truth about the tax costs. That taxing district has not estimated how much tax it will pledge to secure the bonds it plans on issuing, the East Link EIS submissions ignore the tax costs and the bonding requirements that would result from that project going ahead, etc.
Finally, and contrary to what this piece intimates, Sound Transit's financing plan is worse than what the SPMA (the monorail authority) had. They are very similar in that they are based on new local taxes pledged as security while any of the long term bonds are outstanding. That similarity is due to how the same lawyers drafted the enabling legislation the two taxing districts use (it is based on the old-Metro authorizing template). The situations also are similar in that prior to the votes the amounts of taxes that would be required were not disclosed to the public, and after the vote the revenue projections were proven to be overly-optimistic (resulting in MUCH longer payoff periods, which means much higher tax costs to the public).
Because of its financing plan this particular light rail undertaking is, and will remain, a financial disaster for the region. Not to put too fine a point on it, but NO amount of TOD near the several-dozen planned stations would begin to justify this kind of financing plan.
It would be great if some supporter of what Sound Transit is up to would present a tax cost estimate. I believe the bonding would cost the people (mostly) and businesses of this region about $85 billion in taxes through 2052, which is when the last of the ST2 bonds might be paid off. Who REALLY thinks $85 billion in regressive taxing is a justified cost in light of the negligible economic and environmental benefits this particular train line would provide?
There's a reason no peer region pays for light rail in this manner - it's abusive to people and it can not be justified in terms of any fact-based metrics.
Posted Tue, Aug 16, 11:14 p.m. Inappropriate
Thank you, crossrip, for the distressing take on rail finances. At least we will hopefully get something useful out of it, unlike the car tunnel. Oil is getting scarce and the dollars we buy it with are being printed by the trillions. Can the 5 percent of the world's population in this country really expect to keep on burning 25 percent of the world's oil in such circumstances?
I'm totally willing to accept that the present light rail financing setup is wrong, but we still need to start preparing for the day when fuel costs multiples of what it does now in real terms, when many or most people simply won't be able to afford it. We need to figure out a better way to pay for rail, but we've got to start building some less oil dependent ways of moving about and functioning while we still have some capability of doing so.
And thanks for a good article, Roger Valdez. I agree, the tunnel won't be built no matter what the vote. It might just possibly be started, but never finished. Just like the tunnel from "Brightwater" to the Sound probably never will either.
Posted Wed, Aug 17, 7:05 a.m. Inappropriate
I'm moving on from Roger Valdez fatigue.
Posted Wed, Aug 17, 8:39 a.m. Inappropriate
"That’s my greatest concern about the election: It won’t matter. Tunnel warriors will simply regroup, and lawyers, politicos, and others will stoke the fires for the next tunnel battle."
"Others" being the self-appointed, Party-affiliated "experts" who have been given far too much access to the microphone.
I'm with Ivan.
Posted Wed, Aug 17, 9:42 a.m. Inappropriate
I like Knute's article better. It points out that even if the tunnel is built there are still a host of other related problems that it will create that need to be worked on.
I've got "stupidity" fatigue. And if/when this tunnel is built I doubt I'll ever use it. Since I don't live in Seattle I won't be paying for it.
But this project isn't over until they issue the bonds and pull the digging machine out at the other end. Until then I wish them lower rates and no middens, grave sites, hidden boulders or broken machines. Good luck!
Posted Wed, Aug 17, 9:46 a.m. Inappropriate
Roger, I love the "devil child" and "ATM withdrawal" references.
For the record, light rail is a Puget Sound system not just Seattle, but the proper TOD must accompany the massive taxing/financing or we will be yet another case thwarted by an odd alliance of NIMBYs and political and economic parties that use sprawl as their business model.
Posted Wed, Aug 17, 10:02 a.m. Inappropriate
Also, densification along with strategic green-space creation/preservation should be used more aggressively to decrease the need for massive transit taxing/building.
Posted Wed, Aug 17, 11:02 a.m. Inappropriate
While articles like this are designed to slam the door on the AWV story the truth remains that there are still a majority of voters who would choose to replace the viaduct if ever given an honest forum in which vote. This most recent charade is as much of a distraction from the truth as was the phony referendum of 2007. It's amazing to me that this article would fail to even mention this facet of the AWV story.
The tunnel has now almost reached poster-project status for virtually everything that’s wrong with the country. Tax payers experience reduced service, quality of life, and value in their own cities while footing the bill for needlessly expensive projects and self-serving agendas benefitting a few powerful special interests. I invite you again to get a pencil and a map of downtown and discover where this tunnel actually goes and who it actually benefits.
Hopefully, still time to do the right thing.
Posted Wed, Aug 17, 11:27 a.m. Inappropriate
"If the tunnel is rejected, the supporters should back off."
What?
Posted Wed, Aug 17, 9:42 p.m. Inappropriate
Light rail is the most-expensive, stupidest mistake this area has ever made. There is nothing that can be done to make Link light rail anything other than an insanely expensive boondoggle.
Posted Thu, Aug 18, 10:26 a.m. Inappropriate
When do we wake up and admit: "We're outta money folks?"
When the viaduct is torn down.
Tunnel unfinished.
Traffic snarled.
Pretty, billion-dollar, slow-moving trains (streetcars really) that nobody rides - either sitting idle or moving along, slowly, empty.
Sky-high property taxes and regulatory fees.
Bankrupt city coffers.
We could have seen it coming, but the vision of Utopia proved intoxicating.
Posted Thu, Aug 18, 10:26 p.m. Inappropriate
Well written. I've had fatigue of reading folks' comments trying to overturn the decision and degrading it, known as "The Seattle Way."
Does anybody remember the impetus to doing something about the AWV? It was the Bay Area earthquake in 1989, when a freeway of similar age collapsed. The AWV was the first thing I thought of when I saw the pictures of the Bay Area freeway. I wasn't surprised to find that they were ~the same age. Yet, here we were, up until this election, trying to overturn a well-vetted decision that had been reviewed and reviewed and reviewed and had advisory vote and advisory vote. My call to those who are still unhappy: run for office. Volunteer to be a appointed to these committees (you may need to serve on others to get the necessary visibility)! Respect the decision of the folks who spent hours and hours and hours studying the issue instead of second-guessing them.
We're still rolling the dice that we won't have a major earthquake before the tunnel is finished: five more years. This project should've been done years ago, would've saved the taxpayer a lot of money, but in Seattle, we like to spend more and get less, we prove it over and over and over again. See: the 520 bridge for exhibit B.
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