"At least 5 million people had no business trying to purchase a home."

This is the essence of the problems of the last decade, and to say it as part of a national dialogue is politically and socially impossible.

"At least 5 million people had no business trying to purchase a home."

While I agree with your statement, I think the best thing to come out of the current recession is that real estate prices have reset somewhat and more people can have a choice on whether to buy a house or not, rather than not being able to. Both owning a house and renting an apartment have their pros and cons. To imply that only some people have a right to buy a house is irresponsible.

"During the heady days of building, many cities simply adopted a plan that included a wish list to be constructed at future dates, whenever financing was available."

Well, it's a little trickier than that. The GMA requires a jurisdiction to determine that the infrastructure needed to support a development will be available within 6 years of its approval. For roads -- usually the most costly and ubiquitous challenge -- this means adopting capital improvement plans based on at least a 6-year future projection. So in the first couple of years a few thousand dollars are budgeted for initial studies, then a few more thousand for right-of-way acquisition, and finally in the last year the many millions required for actual construction. Then as the funds needed at the end of the cycle are shown to be demonstrably absent, the construction phase budget is simply rolled over into future CIPs. In short, it's not really a wish list so much as an ongoing lie that doesn't become explicitly manifested until 4 or 5 years out -- in other words, after the development predicated on the lie is already in place.

Thanks for the insightful piece, Mark, and we at Shoreline City Hall appreciate the recognition of our efforts to create a sense of place with our LEED Gold City Hall, Interurban Trail, LEED Silver Shorewood HS, the new park at Town Center, and most importantly the complete rebuilding of Shoreline's Aurora Avenue with new vehicle lanes, utilities, and pedestrian/bike amenities.

Shoreline -- like so many cities in the country -- was built out during the Mad Men era of suburban expansion. The Shoreline Sears, for example, is the same vintage as the Space Needle (I don't think even the door handles have changed since Elvis performed).

The rush of suburban development post-GMA occured, however, not in the first-tier suburbs like Shoreline, but in small cities beyond a 30 minute drive (without traffic) from that same Space Needle. These cities were racing to build plugs to stop retail leakage, and the first-tier suburbs were largely leapfrogged for inexpensive and giddy green-field development.

Shoreline, meanwhile, slugged away at rebuilidng its infrastructure. While other cities were explosively growing (and later explosively shrinking) planning and public works departments, Shoreline's was working with business operators and land owners, applying for federal, state, and county funds, and eventually constructing the rebuilt Aurora Avenue. The result is that the $120 million investment in Shoreline's future will be completed without debt and with only 10% city funds.

But is it all just make-up on a witch? Can Aurora really be turned into a place where people want to live, work and play?

No to the first; yes to the second.

Exhibit A is the lovely developments already subplanting the tired and weary along Aurora as it strings together South Lake Union, The Gates Foundation, Fremont, Wallingford, Woodland Park, Green Lake, and Greenwood.

Exhibit B is the recession reset, as Mark called it. It has caused a societal re-evaluation of things like cost of living, livability, commute time, and convenience. Because of that, rents are creeping up, and that is making the more expensive proposition of new multi-storied construction profitable, especially where amenities can be accessed by public transit and foot.

Exhibit C is a future vision of a sustainable lifestyle that enjoys a string of walkable-, bikable-, and transit-accessed amenities that are clustered along each mile of Aurora. While affordable, life on Shoreline's Aurora is not sketchy or unsafe. The Aurora resident enjoys an easy commute to work and a low-maintenance home life, all without needing to take the car out of the garage. They are proud to live in the Aurora neighborhood, and the surrounding neighborhoods are happy that they are part of Shoreline.

Am I crazy? Maybe. But my point is that part of the recession reset is turning out to be a re-evaluation of the use and value of hundreds of miles of old highways that run through first-tier suburbs. If we can pull off a collaborative transformation of Aurora Avenue in Shoreline, imagine the number of places it can be recreated elsewhere.

Mark, this is an outstanding piece of journalism and I'm recommending it to my own readers. Merritt Scott Miller, Editor, The Northstar Journal http://nsjour.wordpress.com\

Ah, yes. Shoreline. It can't afford to pay its teachers, but it can afford an exorbitantly expensive, ego-driven redo of Aurora. But, don't worry folks, they didn't pay for it themselves -- you did. Free money, manna from your tax money, national, state and county as the author boasts about. And as a second opinion, its city hall is an esthetic abomination.

re: the door handles at the Aurora/Shoreline Sears

"I don't think even the door handles have changed"

I was there last week, and loved seeing those door handles, because they were such a distinct example of their period. Design is in a constant state of evolution (from new to mainstream to dated to retro to collectible to antique) and one of the thrills of aging is watching that process.

Back to the Future!

The denial of apartment neighborhoods and the apartment's banishment to strip-zones along arterials came with the rise of "affordable housing" after WWII. The base of Seattle's zoning came long before that and despite a lot of tinkering still retains a rational mix of building types albeit initially scattered about by hegemonic zeal for a city of one million people. The poster child—a hunk of a working-class brick apartment building in West Seattle's North Admiral district that still stands alone 3/4 of a century later.

Neighborhood activists have long sung the praises of apartment neighborhoods to no avail and as far back as 1957 I am told, but alas the hegemony only thinks forward and continues even today to dismiss those who champion neighborhoods as "single family homeowners," or worse. Sort of ironic in that the label only works because of past forward only thinking.

There is quite a lot to look back over in order to more effectively look ahead, then reason back.

Take the depreciation in home value that is now slightly more than the Great Depression. And this comment from Crosscut's Clicker link today to "affordable housing" in Vancouver B.C.:

"'Why haven't people been priced out of buying cars like they've been priced out of buying homes?' he asks.

Because mortgages are the primary way of injecting new money into the economy.

Contrary to popular belief, banks don't lend deposits. All new loans are new money, unearned money that doesn't exist until the banker makes an entry in the database, just changing the numbers in the borrower's account. But because the banks demand principal plus interest (more money than the original loan amount) in return for tapping the keyboard, ever increasing amounts of loans must be made to cover the demand. It's a ponzi scheme, a system of winners and losers.

So what do the banks need to ensure ever-increasing demand for bigger loans? Rising property values."

kmeyer - your contribution to this dialogue is about as useful as a bicycle to a fish. I hope that it's not typical of your overall contribution to society.

This is a good article outlining the mismatch of the "american dream"; human behavior; and our mistaken expectations. There is some good coming out of this economic reset; and this new pragmatism is part of it.
Well done.

Ouch! Blessing in disguise? After being unemployed for over 1.5 years (the first time in my life after over 30 years of employment), please don't call this economy a blessing. I had to sell my house at a loss because I was unable to refinance due to unemployment. My home like homes of many Baby Boomers was part of my investment for retirement. Now there is no way I will make up the difference and ever again own my own a home, whether a house or flat. Someone else is now living in the home I invested blood, sweat and tears in for over 12 years.

I'm now renting a cheap apartment near my son's school and hating it. Not due to it's location, or setting, but because it is a rental. I must rely on someone else for maintenance - fixing the garage door (only took 2 month for repair), not being able to upgrade the cheap fan in the bathroom, and waiting for a working dryer for over a week.

As for the cities, weren't these civic improvements the result of community vision and foresight, planning for the future needs of the city prior to the recession? If our economy was in a better state, our cities would be making even more investments to their centers and so would the private sector. Look around and see the empty store fronts in Burien, Renton's Landing and other communities.

Yes, the lack of subdivision and building permit activity at city hall is giving decision makers time to focus their attention to new strategies for improving their city. But at the end of the day, both the cities and private sector are actually making fewer improvements with fewer dollars, than they would be with a robust economy.

There's no blessing in disguise, it's just a new game requiring new strategies.

I grew up in a "walking community" in the 1950's and I hated living in it. The noise level is higher, people are nosy and look in your windows if the curtains are open, and my yard and garden were constantly vandalized. I will do whatever I have to do to continue living on my 5 acres. As for the comments from the Shoreline community...I have several friends who live there and complain constantly about the constant traffic congestion and the "never-ending road construction projects". I agree that Land Use needs to be addressed AND there needs to be a more creative approach to these changes, beyond packing humans together like sardines in condos!!!

kjs, it is indeed not a blessing in disguise for people like you who have been unemloyed long-term. It's awful. But I hope for you son's sake, you don't complain in his hearing about hating to live in your rental just because it's a rental. There are many people who have had houses for 40+ years and now can't afford to keep them up because they're living on Social Security, and can't sell them. They are stuck. Your son may hear about those people, and others who are already homeless, and wonder what to think about your complaints.

I’m beginning to suspect that part of the path forward from this mess has to be some new business models for housing. It seems like we’ve primarily got two options; the 12 month rental contract and the home purchase. An option that would allow middle to upper income residents to lease while still having the same control over their space as a homeowner might be a good solution. You can lease a car for five years. Much of the commercial and office market is currently a lease market. Leasees can do tenant improvements and have them amortized into the lease and it seems to work across the value spectrum of the office market. Goldman Sachs probably doesn’t own their office suite and I don’t think they’ve ever been screwed out of the deposit because they tacked a Led Zepplin poster to the wall. I can’t help but think the new market realities will create some more space for innovation in the middle.