Economy sputters, and so do GOP's Perry and Cain
For all the struggles on the economic front, the most interesting developments Tuesday may have been in the Republican presidential race.
Tuesday was the day of the economy globally and in American politics as well. Within a 24-hour period on Oct. 11:
- Current U.S. unemployment was announced as at 9.1 percent (and nearly twice as much, if you count those partially employed or who have stopped looking for work).
- Total federal debt was announced as reaching $14.8 trillion.
- European Union governments neared agreeement on a Greek bailout package, causing markets to rebound.
- President Barack Obama's jobs bill foundered in the U.S. Senate and probably now will be considered in several separate legislative pieces in both Senate and House.
- Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney was endorsed for the Republican presidential nomination by New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie shortly before emerging the winner in a nationally televised Bloomberg-Washington Post debate on economic issues at Dartmouth College.
The other developments were at least equal in importance to the Republican debate in New Hampshire, but the debate no doubt will get the greatest media attention because, along with the Christie endorsement, it cemented Romney's position as the clear frontrunner for the GOP nomination.
Business executive Herman Cain, who had risen to second place in Republican public-approval polls among the candidates, for the first time in the debates took some incoming fire and made a couple slips that hurt him. Cain challenged Romney to find fault with his 9-9-9 tax-reform plan and asked why Romney needed 57 points in his own economic plan. Romney responded that tax reform alone would not fix the economy and that his 57 points, in fact, were listed under 7 main subheadings covering other parts of economic policy.
Former Sen. Rick Santorum also jumped Cain, suggesting neither Congress nor public would accept Cain's regressive plan and explaining why. Cain got in further trouble, in answer to a moderator's question, by saying that former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan was the Fed chairman he had most admired over the past several decades. Rep. Ron Paul responded that "Greenspan was a disaster!"; that drew heavy applause from the audience. Cain stated that several well-known economists had contributed to his 9-9-9 plan but, when challenged, could name only one (who is little known). Cain emerged smiling and composed but tarnished.
Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who had performed badly in earlier debates, needed a strong showing Tuesday night to pull back into first-tier status. But he did badly again. He clearly was again unprepared. His main and only substantial economic proposal was to focus incentives on the energy sector (although he promised to issue more detailed economic proposals in the following days). In particular, Perry fared badly in one-on-one exchanges with Romney. Christie, sitting in the audience, was caught on camera casting an evil eye on Perry when he spoke. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Rep. Michele Bachmann, and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman turned in their usual acceptable performances but, it was clear, knew they were in also-ran status and likely to remain there.
The debates, at this point, are the only thing keeping candidates other than Romney, Cain, and Perry in the running. They give regular national TV exposure to the secondary candidates, who otherwise could not finance on their own. The winnowing-out process will begin quickly in 2012, however, as real voters begin to cast ballots in early primary and caucus states and money must be spent on organizing and on media buys. By February, the field should be down to three or four. Unless he makes a major goof, Romney appears on his way to the nomination. (Christie, after a highly effective performance in his endorsement press conference with Romney, probably enhanced his chances for No. 2 on the ticket. Romney literally beamed as he spoke.)
With the Obama jobs plan foundering and delayed, the main ring is now occupied by the bipartisan congressional Gang of Twelve, co-chaired by Sen. Patty Murray, which is meeting regularly in secret — and with a remarkable lack of leaks — prior to making its recommendations for economic renewal and long-term deficit reduction by Thanksgiving. The few leaks emanating from the committee point to recommendations approximating those of the 2010 Obama deficit-reduction commission (Simpson-Bowles commission). That would be a positive outcome from an exercise for which many have held little hope.
Recommended reading: For readers particularly interested in knowledgeable economic-policy commentary, I recommend two current articles. One in the New Yorker, by John Cassidy, examines Keynesian economics and its application in the current situation. The other, in the current New York Review of Books, by Yale professor Bill Nordhaus, examines economic aspects of energy policy. Good stuff.
Like what you just read? Support high quality local journalism. Become a member of Crosscut today!











Twitter
Facebook
RSS Feeds
Comments:
Posted Wed, Oct 12, 10:20 p.m. Inappropriate
Romney would be foolish to select Christie for his VP. Another Northeasterner on the ticket would magnify his weakness with the Republican base. Rather his preppy slickness needs to be balanced by someone from the Deep South with impeccable redneck credentials. His best bet is a good old boy with a degree of solid experience who would not scare away moderates and independents; forget the wild-eyed and inexperienced evangelical tea-baggerss. If I were in Mitt's tasseled loafers my candidate would be the Honorable Haley Barbour, the wily and homespun Governor of the great and sovereign State of Mississippi. Haley would keep conservative Southerners happy without frightening Northern moderates. With someone like Barbour beside him Romney wins in a landslide.
Posted Wed, Oct 12, 10:52 p.m. Inappropriate
Two great references, thanks. I especially appreciate someone writing a comprehensive analysis of the environmental externalities of our energy systems.
I do wonder why neither Graetz nor his reviewer Nordhaus mention the concept of energy return on energy invested (EROI or EROEI). EROEI measures the amount of work (energy) it takes to produce each unit of energy in the fuel being mined, drilled, etc. For example, if it takes 1 unit of energy to produce oil that will provide 100 units of energy when used, the EROEI is 100:1.
The EROEI of U.S. petroleum was c. 100:1 in the early 1900s. It is now in the range of 30:1. As each oil field is depleted, the EROEI will drop. At some point, it will no longer be worth the amount of energy it takes to produce the remaining oil. This relationship holds true for the global stock of all oil fields. See “Peak Oil.”
The relationship of EROEI to externalities is this: the lower the EROEI, the greater the likely externalities per unit of energy produced, because there will be more energy burned just to produce each unit. With the easy oil gone (that with high EROEI), the harder fields will be mined. Hence the increased deep sea drilling with greater risks of disastrous impacts.
I recommend that anyone who wants to understand the global energy crisis become familiar with EROEI analyses. http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3786 is a good starting place.
Posted Thu, Oct 13, 9:17 a.m. Inappropriate
Thanks for our comments and, in particular, to louploup for referring us to another instructive website. I also find it useful to read the London Economist's weekly economic coverage. Many readers, I suspect, do so.
Among economic journalists, I find myself respecting Bob Samuelson of The Washington Post and Paul Salmon of Public Broadcasting, both of whom do an excellent job of presenting economic issues in coherent, plain-spoken terms.
A Romney running mate: Presuming he is the GOP nominee, Gov. Romney
could go in several directions in choosing a No. 2. His Mormonism could
shave a percentage point or two off his vote in southern and border states
with large numbers of fundamentalist voters. That might point toward selection of someone from south of the Mason-Dixon acceptable to those voters. But such a person could not carry baggage which would hurt Romney elsewhere in the country. Gov. Haley Barbour, though a skillful and savvy politician, has taken positions which could hurt Romney. He also too greatly resembles, physically and in speech, the caricature of the old-time southern pol. (Also, it should be noted, southern and border states
are likely to remain red, even if Romney's Mormonism scares off some bundamentalists).
Florida Sen. Marco Rubio probably would carry Florida for Romney and also would appeal to Latino voters nationally who once split 50-50 between Democrats and Republicans but in recent years have trended strongly Democratic. Christie would be chosen not simply because of his appeal
in urban Northeast and Middle Atlantic states but because he simultaneously is appealing to Tea Partiers, blue collar and middle-culture so-called Reagan Democrats, Catholics, and independents.
Christie would bring political strength to Romney as Joe Biden did to
President Obama, but with more vigor and firepower. He would fill superbly the traditional role of the vice-presidential candidate---to
go strongly on the political offensive while the presidential candidate
adopts a more statesmanlike persona.
Finally---and this should not be forgotten---no presidential candidate wants a No. 2 who carries distracting problems and/or who is not recognizable as able to succeed to the presidency in event of crisis.
No more GOP Agnews or Quayles. No. 2 also needs to be on the same
general policy wavelength as the presidential nominee, lest their differences become an issue in itself.
Login or register to add your voice to the conversation.