Inside Politics, 2012: Can Republicans control Legislature? Races look tight
Even coming up short in November, the GOP could well control the agenda in Olympia next year.
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17th District — Rep. Tim Probst (D): Probst is the only Democrat left representing the Clark County (Vancouver) suburbs. The 17th is a Republican district that became a bit more Republican with redistricting. Probst survived a strong challenge in 2010, but how long can he hang on in a part of the state that is clearly trending Republican? House Republicans are looking hard for a candidate.
28th District — both seats: We discussed the 28th's highly competitive nature in the Senate section. Republicans came close against Democratic Reps. Troy Kelley and Tami Green in 2010 (47 percent and 48.5 percent for their respective challengers) The candidate situation is still being sorted out, but it is likely that one or both of these seats will be targeted by the GOP again this cycle.
Potentially competitive Democratic seats
1st District — both seats: Again, we discussed the 1st in the Senate section. Republicans came close in both open seat House races in 2010 (47 percent and 49 percent). If they recruit strong candidates, they may challenge for one or both of these seats again.
44th District — Rep. Hans Dunshee: Dunshee has been frustrating Republicans since 1992, consistently getting re-elected in a south Snohomish County suburban district that leans Republican. The Republican candidate received 48 percent against Dunshee in 2010, and the GOP is likely to try and take another run at Dunshee in 2012. Can they find a strong candidate?
31st District — Rep. Chris Hurst: The 31st district is made up of second-ring south King and east Pierce county suburbs, such as Enumclaw and Bonney Lake, and is a solid Republican district. The 31st is so Republican the Democrats didn’t even contest an open seat House race here in 2010. Hurst is a leader of the moderate road-kill Democrats and does everything he can to distance himself from his party and work with Republicans in Olympia and in his district. So far it has worked, but can he survive if the Republican leadership finds and funds a strong candidate against him?
47th District — Rep. Pat Sullivan: The 47th is another competitive south King County district made up of parts of Kent, Auburn, and Covington. The 47th leans very slightly Republican. The GOP defeated an incumbent Democratic Senator and a veteran D House member here in 2010. The surviving Democrat is Pat Sullivan, the House Majority Leader. Sullivan is popular, but a strong opponent could put his seat in jeopardy. The House Republicans are looking for just such an opponent.
26th District — Rep. Larry Seaquist: The 26th is another Republican-leaning district sending Ds to Olympia. The district covers parts of Pierce and Kitsap counties, including Gig Harbor, Port Orchard, and downtown Bremerton. Seaquist is a popular retired former naval officer who survived with 52 percent in 2010. His GOP opponent, Doug Richards, is off and running again. Is Seaquist in danger or was 2010 the GOP high-water mark?
Potentially competitive Republican seats
25th District — both seats: As we discussed in the Senate section, Pierce County’s 25th Legislative District is clearly trending Republican. But the GOP has to defend an open seat (Rep. Dammeier is running for the Senate) and freshman Rep. Hans Zeiger, who won by 47 votes in 2010. These two seats might be the best targets the Ds have to increase their majority.
47th District — Rep. Mark Hargrove: As we discussed above, the 47th leans very slightly Republican. In 2010, Hargrove defeated a severely politically wounded Democratic House veteran, Geoff Simpson. Hargrove is considered a social conservative and Democrats believe he is too conservative for this suburban district. Will they make a strong run at taking this seat back?
5th District — open seat: GOP Rep. Glenn Anderson is running for Lieutenant Governor. The 5th is a Republican-leaning east King County suburban district centered on the city of Issaquah. The GOP has a strong candidate in Chad Magendanz, president of the Issaquah School Board. Winning here would be difficult for the Ds, but they may make the attempt.
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Comments:
Posted Tue, Feb 14, 7:52 a.m. Inappropriate
Mr. Vance is almost right. He suggests that Republicans may effectively control the agenda in the legislature in 2013. I think they already do.
They do it through a combination of strong discipline on their side of the aisle, poor discipline on the other side, the support of "road kill" Democrats, and, more than anything else, rules that allow a minority to dictate outcomes in our state legislature. Among these rules is the Tim Eyman-inspired super-majority required to eliminate tax loopholes.
On the whole, I think the Republicans would prefer to have control as they now have it and as Mr. Vance suggests they might next year - without the majority. That allows them to reap the rewards and escape the responsibility and the blame. They can always (and often do) say "Don't blame us; the Democrats have been in control all this time." That is truly the best of both worlds.
Posted Tue, Feb 14, 9:19 a.m. Inappropriate
Given (R) Steve Litzow's pro same-sex marriage and pro-abortion stand, I suspect he's angered enough of the base that they will either skip over this position, or seek a legitimate primary challenger.
Posted Tue, Feb 14, 10:12 a.m. Inappropriate
Dan,
The top 2 primary and our vote by mail system makes it very difficult for the base of either Party to oust an incumbent. If we had a "normal" primary system I would agree with you that Litzow would face a serious challenge.
Posted Tue, Feb 14, 11:41 a.m. Inappropriate
Thanks for this analysis. One thing that occurs to me is that if Democrats maintain their majority but lose a few seats, the party leadership will be more inclined to turn the screws on the Roadkill Caucus members rather than let them provide the Republicans with an effective governing majority.
Posted Tue, Feb 14, 4:40 p.m. Inappropriate
Contrary to what Chris Vance has stated, there is an announced candidate. Former Federal Way Mayor Linda Kochmar has already announced that she is running as a Republican. She has a fully functioning campaign running and will have a kick-off on Feb 23rd at 7:00 pm at the Best Western Evergreen & Suites, located at 32124 25th Ave S. in Federal Way. Secy of State Sam Reed will be in attendance. In addition, Linda Kochmar has the endorsement of 11 current and former Mayors, as well as many citizens of Federal Way. She has been on the Federal Way City Council for 14 years, where she has served as both Deputy Mayor and Mayor. She was also voted best City Leader in 2008 and 2010 by readers of the Federal Way Mirror.
On the other hand, Mr. Moore has shown his leadership by the debacle of the handling of the implementation of the new Standards Based Education System within the Federal Way School District. A large number of parents and students in all the high schools expressed their outrage at the manner in which this change in grading and teaching was implemented, especially the lack of input by parents. All this transpired while Mr. Moore was President of the School Board, and with his support. Mr. Moore has also been known for his negative campaigning and it appears it is all about him instead of service to the community. Many peope of the 30th District are very turned off by his negative tactics.
-Purlee
Posted Tue, Feb 14, 5:21 p.m. Inappropriate
I didn't know Linda was running when I wrote this. She is also a strong candidate. Looks like the GOP will have two strong candidates for this seat.
Posted Tue, Feb 14, 8:32 p.m. Inappropriate
Chris,
I love this kind of analysis. Thank you for writing it.
But in regards to your comment that the Republicans have never won in the 19th LD... what about two of my favorite legislators, Senator J.T. Quigg (1977-1985) and Representative Bob Williams (1983-1989)?
Posted Tue, Feb 14, 9:45 p.m. Inappropriate
Bob,
The 19th was very different then. I am talking about the 19th since the 1992 redistricting.
Posted Wed, Feb 15, 6:09 a.m. Inappropriate
Chris great piece . My concern is with our coast . Those communities are in dire straits . My last trip to Aberdeen and Hoquiam I thought I was in a third world economy . Complete and total economic dispair and yet they vote with the Seattle left .Food stamps is the ONLY economic engine down their . Norm Dicks should be ashamed .....Workhorse1
Posted Thu, Mar 22, 4:16 p.m. Inappropriate
I know I am late to the game on this article but I would like to alert you to another wrinkle in the 1st district landscape. I am running against Sen. McAuliffe. My website is:
www.guy4senate.com
I agree with prior comments about the insightful articles Mr. Vance contributes to Crosscut. Regardless of your political persuasion, he adds excellent content to the site.
Guy
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