Inslee risks historic misstep with emphasis on federal health care
Voters judge candidates for governor on the basis of how well they can manage the state's business. Yet, Jay Inslee's campaign keeps going after Rob McKenna over a complex federal issue.
Courtesy of Raul Almeida
Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jay Inslee seems determined to rise or fall with an issue, Obamacare, which likely will be of only marginal importance to Washington voters when they cast their votes for governor this November.
In this regard, he is following in the footsteps of national candidates who pursued strategies and took campaign missteps that they later came to regret. It is still early in the 2012 campaign year, however, and Inslee has time to make a course correction.
A long Seattle Times front-page story this past Sunday (March 25), by Jim Brunner, gave the Inslee campaign's rationale for the federal health legislation emphasis.
The reasoning apparently goes that Attorney General Rob McKenna, Inslee's Republican opponent. has filed suit with other state AGs to strike down the entire Obama health-care law but that, at the same time, McKenna has expressed approval for some of its provisions. Therefore, McKenna should be seen as both wrong (in opposing Obamacare) and a hypocrite (in liking some of it).
Inslee, by contrast, likes the federal Affordable Care Act so much that he is stressing it over such homely state-level issues as economic growth, jobs, taxes, public education, transportation, and environmental stewardship —issues where voters see their governor as making a critical difference. (Moreover there is an implication to be left with voters that, because of his Obamacare postures, McKenna must somehow be a Santorum-like GOP nut job).
In a related event, a 24-year-old Bremerton breast-cancer survivor did an Olympia photo-op/appearance Monday to blast McKenna for his opposition to Obamacare. She said the health law had saved her life. Similar such events can be anticipated.
More on this below. But, first, some comparable national-level candidate missteps in modern times, which seem to occur almost every four years.
- Vice President Richard Nixon's 1960 blunder in allowing Sen. John Kennedy to pre-empt stronger ground on national-security issues, previously a plus for Republican candidates. An almost equal blunder, in determing a razor-close race, was Nixon's failure to get a close shave and hire a good makeup man prior to his first televised debate with Kennedy. (Cynics will say the loss might also have been due to Nixon's failure to cover all Chicago polling places with GOP watchers on election night).
- Sen. Barry Goldwater's 1964 pledges to threaten use of nuclear weapons, end Social Security, and "saw the eastern seabaord off the United States" if elected. These enabled the Johnson-Humphrey campaign to paint Goldwater as a dangerous kook outside the American mainstream, win a landslide victory, and enjoy a huge congressional majority that promptly enacted a Great Society agenda, which otherwise could not have passed.
- Sen. George McGovern's unprecedented dumping of Sen. Tom Eagleton as his 1972 vice-presidential running mate on the basis that Eagleton had undergone previously undisclosed electric shock treatment for depression. McGovern's losing margin was deepened by his inability during the campaign to address President Nixon's weak economic-policy performance. As an anti-war candidate, he was unable to move beyond war-peace issues where Nixon enjoyed far greater public confidence.
- President Gerald Ford's unaccountable 1976 lapse, in a televised debate with Gov. Jimmy Carter, in asserting that the Soviet Union did not dominate the countries of eastern Europe. This neutralized Ford's principal campaign argument that Carter was unacquainted with such issues.
- Vice President Walter Mondale's public confirmation, in his 1984 nomination-acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention, that he would raise taxes if elected. This contributed to a landslide for President Ronald Reagan comparable to LBJ's and Nixon's 1964 and 1972 victories, respectively.
- Sen. Gary Hart's 1988 challenge to reporters to "follow me and see if you can find any evidence" of his alleged womanizing. They did and they did, leading to his abrupt withdrawal from the Democratic presidential nominating campaign. He had been the frontrunner up to that point.
- Gov. Mike Dukakis' staged photo event in 1988 in which he appeared, elf-like, in the turret of a U.S. Army tank. The event was intended to underscore his national security credentials but contributed to the evaporation of his 18-point lead in the polls over Vice President Bush as the campaign season began.
- President Bush's 1992 constant glancing at his watch, during a televised debate with Gov. Bill Clinton, which made voters think, "Is this guy bored or what?" It ratified the Democratic slogan that it was time for Bush to leave. Bush also failed to use the presidency, as most incumbents do, to stimulate the economy in an election year. Neither tax cuts nor spending inreases were employed to blunt a recession which ended just before election day.
- Sen. John Kerry's celebrated 2004 windsurfing photo, intended to show his vigorous love of outdoor sport but which emphasized his class differences from those of ordinary voters who bowled or played weekend softball. His famous "I was for it before I was against it" statement on his Iraq war vote also helped him lose narrowly in November. Another Kerry quote from that campaign: "Who among us does not love NASCAR?" Tennis anyone?
- Sen. Hillary Clinton's 2008 failure to contest Sen. Barack Obama in states which chose their Democratic delegates by caucus or convention while she won victories in major primary states. That omission gave Obama the presidential nomination in a close race.
- Sen. John McCain's double glitches in the 2008 general-election race: His choice of an unprepared Gov. Sarah Palin as his vice-presidential running mate and the suspension of his campaign at the outset of the national financial crisis to fly back to Washington, D.C., where he embarrassingly played no role whatever in debating or structuring a policy to address the crisis.
Inslee, in choosing federal health legislation as his centerpiece issue, has made a strange choice. The legislation, when initially passed, had 60 percent public opposition. Now, two years later, the most recent survey shows it still receiving 56 percent public opposition.
In blue-state Washington, sentiment is probably 50-50 or perhaps slightly in favor.
The U.S. Supreme Court is hearing arguments in the case brought by McKenna and others. The issues are difficult and a ruling likely will come no sooner than June. A confirming ruling might benefit Inslee marginally. A contrary ruling could hurt him. Why on earth would he leave his campaign's fate so dependent on an uncertain court decision?
Gubernatorial candidates normally do and say things intended to underscore their executive capacities. These are unrelated to a congressman's votes. State-level voters make their judgments about governors on the basis of their feelings about the candidates' prospective management of state-level issues.
Health care, of course, is a concern of all families in the state. But, overall, how will the two gubernatorial candidates' positions on Obamacare be deciding factors in their votes for that office?
Answer this brief survey for yourself. Which of the following issues do I consider most important to my 2012 choice as Washington's governor?
- The state of the state's economy
- Job creation
- Taxes
- Public education
- Transportation
- Environmental stewardship
- Federal health-care legislation
You catch my drift.
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Comments:
Posted Tue, Mar 27, 5:52 a.m. Inappropriate
During his last campaign, Jay Inslee took money from:
Agua Caliente Band of Cahuilla Indians; Palm Springs, CA
Cow Creek Band of Umpqua Indians; Roseburg, OR
Jamestown S’Klallam Tribe; Sequim, WA
Lummi Nation; Bellingham, WA
Mashantucket Pequot Tribe; Mashantucket, CT
Mississippi Band of Choctaw Indians; Philadelphia, MS
Morongo Band of Mission Indians; Cabazon, CA
NIGA Sovereignty PAC; Washington D.C.
Pechanga Band of Mission Indians; Temecula, CA
Poarch Band of Creek Indians; Atmore, AL
Port Gamble S’Klallam Tribe; Kingston, WA
Saginaw Chippewa Indian Tribe of Michigan; Mt. Pleasant, MI
Salt River Pima Maricopa Tribe; Scottsdale, AZ
San Manuel Band of Serrano Mission Indians; Highland, CA
Spokane Tribe; Wellpinit, WA
Suquamish Indian Tribe; Suquamish, WA
Swinomish Tribe; LaConner, WA
Tulalip Tribe; Marysville, WA
Upper Skagit Tribe; Sedro Wooley, WA
In exchange, he voted to exempt "members of indian tribes" from the personal mandate (buy insurance or pay a fine!) under which others must labor.
Posted Tue, Mar 27, 7:26 a.m. Inappropriate
I don't seek out the opportunity to criticize, but your analysis is strikingly off the mark here, Mr. Van Dyk.
First, don't confuse a good story in the Times with the campaign's focus. There was a good story on McKenna's political relevance as well to health care. You're right in not assumIng that makes the issue McKenna's centerpiece, just as you're wrong assuming it's Inslee's.
Second, if you look at the issue Inslee has focused on to date, it's clearly jobs and the economy. Praise him or critique him for it, by jobs is clearly his focus. A phone call or a visit to the Inslee website would demonstrate that.
Finally, comparing a perceived focus on health care to the national gaffes above looks like the online equivalent of Fonzi's "jumping the shark.". Your historical perspective is valuable but it is terribly misplaced in this way.
I care about health policy for a number of personal and professional reasons. I think the ACA will be the center of the 2012 campaign for a number of reasons. So, you can imagine my let down when I read this piece that is so thin on thoughtfulness. I expected better from you, Mr. Van Dyk.
Posted Tue, Mar 27, 9:21 a.m. Inappropriate
Ah, a trip down Memory Lane disguised as a piece on the (yawn) governor's race. Turns out that I was in Italy during the 1960 campaign and listened to that first Nixon-Kennedy debate on Armed Forces Radio. For those of us who could only hear the voices and not see the faces, it seemed that Nixon had won handily. The 1960 debate was the first great demonstration that we had passed suddenly into an era where a new technology made visual appearances more impactive than intellectual substance. The rest, as they say, is history.
Here's an idea for a future article: reprise your fond memories of Harold Stassen and his eternal quest for the GOP presidential nomination (of course explaining first to the youngsters exactly who the hell Stassen was). With the infusion of SuperPAC money into the 2012 electoral cycle, it's now clear we have made another cultural shift that divorces presidential ambition even further from reality (who would have believed it even possible?). So now the Stassen model is coming back into vogue: with a sugar daddy in your pocket you can run for president forever without regard to electoral success or failure. With a little imagination it could become a good story -- a venerable historical cycle repeating itself but this time dressed up in clown's clothing and armed with whoopee cushions.
Posted Tue, Mar 27, 9:30 a.m. Inappropriate
Sometimes issues and voters at the "margin" make a big difference:
2004 Washington State General Election for Governor
Results after 2 recounts and a court decision:
Christine Gregoire (D) 1,373,361
Dino Rossi (R) 1,373,288
Margin 133
Posted Tue, Mar 27, 9:55 a.m. Inappropriate
Those recounts - especially the second one - can be expensive. Who funded the one that, finally, gave Christine the win?
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politics/2008013983_donations24m.html
Posted Tue, Mar 27, 10:44 a.m. Inappropriate
Ted, my story this weekend did not suggest Inslee has made health care the central issue of his campaign above state-level issues like jobs, the economy and schools. Please read it again.
It was focused on the factual tension between what McKenna has claimed about the purpose of the health care lawsuit, and what was actually being argued in court.
You could also look at Jay Inslee's campaign web site for two minutes and see that there is little IF ANY mention of health care on the main pages.
--Jim Brunner
Posted Tue, Mar 27, 12:01 p.m. Inappropriate
Thanks for your comments. A couple responses.
---I cited the gaffes by national-level candidates simply to illustrate that even those at the top can make misjudgments. As I pointed out, there is ample time for Jay Inslee to shift emphases.
---Dick Nelson, of course, is right that gubernatorial races can be determined by the smallest of margins. But a candidate must begin by
bearing down on those issues of greatest interest and importance to voters.
Voters most influenced by a secondary or tertiary issue might, in the end,
help make the final difference in the outcome. But they will not unless their candidate has first gotten that far by being credible on first-tier issues.
---Thanks to DJ Wilson and Jim Brunner for their comments. I did not reach a conclusion simply be reading your Sunday piece, Jim, although it did in one place present the Inslee campaign's argumentation and positioning on the Obamacare issue. I did not consult the Inslee website. I have, however, watched the course of his campaign (including his statements on other matters). Many months ago I had a brief conversation with Inslee in which he told me intended to put first emphasis on his differences with McKenna on the Obama health-care legislation. (I mentioned then that he might wish to reconsider that priority, without suggesting anything further). I have seen nothing since
which would lead me to conclude that he has changed him mind. I note, by the way, that not only did a cancer survivor blast McKenna yesterday at the Capitol but that Gov. Gregoire also hit McKenna hard on the Obamacare issue---indications of a concerted campaign.
If I were advising Inslee, which I am not, I would tell him to fire away
as he wished regarding his differences with McKenna on Obamacare---after all, there are groups and voters who put it first above all else---but
to keep his eye on the prize by doing his homework and putting first priority on the gut state-level issues that sbsorb most voters. (One might add that avid supporters of Obamacare are likely to give Inslee their vote in any case; it's the other voters he needs). As I observe his campaign, I fear that Inslee has not yet made a transition from the outlook of a federal legislator to one of a state-level executive. But, again, there is time to do it.
Posted Tue, Mar 27, 1:06 p.m. Inappropriate
Dick Nelson and other Crosscut readers and participants should remember that Judge Bridges found 1,678 illegal votes had been cast in the 2004 Washington election for governor and he reduced the vote total by 4 for Dino Rossi and one for Ruth Bennett and could not assign the other 1,673 illegal votes to any specific candidate so the 1,673 still remain in the overall vote totals...secondly, Jay Inslee should remove the words "work" and "working" from all yard signs, campaign literature, fundraising letters, e-mails, and speeches since he no longer has any constituents to work for.
Posted Tue, Mar 27, 2:16 p.m. Inappropriate
Jay Inslee is simply a non-entity. He seems to have no charisma, and has articulated no vision. A Democratic Mitt Romney, if you will. I'll vote for him because I simply will not vote for a Republican, not even for dog catcher. But I don't think he's going to win in November...
Posted Tue, Mar 27, 6:51 p.m. Inappropriate
Folks like you make democracy work, Orino.
Posted Tue, Mar 27, 7:58 p.m. Inappropriate
Folks like us, Kieth, don't vote for Republicans because we know who they are. Democracy is being able to come to those conclusions and vote according to them.
Posted Tue, Mar 27, 10:20 p.m. Inappropriate
As this article points out, the individual mandate was a Republican idea. The idea being that it was the responsibility of all Americans to contribute toward health care rather than getting a free ride. My how times have changed.
Health-care provision at center of Supreme Court debate was a Republican idea
http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/health-care-provision-at-center-of-supreme-court-debate-was-a-republican-idea/2012/03/25/gIQAoCHocS_story.html
Posted Wed, Mar 28, 5:56 a.m. Inappropriate
"Folks like us, Kieth, don't vote for Republicans because we know who they are." Followed closely by "I don't how McKenna won, nobody I know voted for him." A closed mind on display. Just another example of a group of people who need to be in the poltiical minority for a few decades.
Posted Wed, Mar 28, 7:50 a.m. Inappropriate
Cameron. The Republican party of today isn't really a political party anymore since the people controlling it are all multi-millionaires surrounded by lobbyists who are all advocating on behalf of other millionaires and billionaires. The Republican party is merely a proxy for the corporations.
Simple evidence of this is the Affordable Care Act, which is hearing oral arguments this week at the Supreme Court. This act was largely an idea that came from the old Republican party before it disintegrated. (see link above) The individual mandate came from the Republican Party and now this same party is outraged by the idea. It makes one's head spin.
Today's Republican party favors bank bailouts, unfettered deregulation of the banking industry, oil drilling, fracking, nuclear power. I think you really have to be a fool to believe that the nuclear power industry can regulate itself. Didn't we prove that doesn't work with the S&L; crisis, the Enron crisis and the Wall Street meltdown?
And as the murder of Trayvon Martin shows, they've even deregulated and privatized law enforcement and put it into the hands of paranoid cop wanna-bes like George Zimmerman.
And now the Republicans are choosing a candidate for President that 60% of the party doesn't even like. And let's not forget the last President who was a CEO was Herbert Hoover.
Posted Wed, Mar 28, 10:09 a.m. Inappropriate
I voted for McKenna as Attorney General. I've met him, and I thought he'd do a good job and mostly he has. However given his position on women's reproductive rights and his pandering to the far right of his party I won't be voting for him again... well dog catcher maybe, but then that was before I heard about anyone tying a dog to the roof of the family car.
Posted Wed, Mar 28, 10:35 a.m. Inappropriate
I will look forward to reading your posts Richard and Gary, in November. You folks love the echo chamber.
Posted Wed, Mar 28, 11:22 a.m. Inappropriate
What a thoughtful comment Cameron. No facts to back anything up? Personally I think Rob McKenna could very well be the next Scott Walker. A stealth candidate who gets elected Governor and then like a trojan horse, unleashes his plan to break the unions at Boeing and turn the Seattle region into the next Detroit. It's hardly a secret that the Republican party wants to eliminate every last union in this country. Dismantling the Boeing unions will be a huge win for the Republican party. McKenna would be the perfect guy for the job. He's smart, likeable and stealthy.
What made this country great, Cameron, was a thriving middle class, not millions of people living in poverty with no end in sight. The Republicans really have no record to run on. They've accomplished nothing, except allowing 9/11 to happen. And the entire economy to crash in 2008. You can call that the echo chamber. Most people just call it history.
Posted Wed, Mar 28, 2:24 p.m. Inappropriate
Focus group of one: McKenna joining suit with the likes of Ken Cucinelli and Bill McCollum--such a transparently political move, cynically precursive to his gubernatorial run--actually WAS enough to immediately disqualify him for me. I'll stay out of whether Inslee is playing this card (or any) right yet, but I'm sure I'm not the only person who learned I had a litmus test two years ago this week.
Posted Thu, Mar 29, 6:53 a.m. Inappropriate
Keep spinning Richard, you will corkscrew yourselves right into the ground.
You attack me for not presenting facts and immedidately launch into an ad homien tirade. Typical.
You and chorus continue to support a one party majority with a proven record of failure. Failure to plan, failure to act, failure to lead. You will blindly support the hand picked successor to Gregoire, Jay Inslee, a candidate who is failing to participate in his own campaign.
America and Americans had been attacked prior to 9/11, who's fault was that? The mismanagement of Fannie and Freddie by Franklin Raines and the corruption of Democrats like John Corzine are typical of your bias analysis. The support for that whine is evidence of the echo chamber.
Posted Thu, Mar 29, 10:05 a.m. Inappropriate
Cameron. Of course I'm biased, just like you are. Is that some kind of revelation? Is there anyone who isn't biased? Is this news to you?
You've used the typical propaganda tactic of tossing out a whole bunch of issues rather than present 1 single fact about anything. 9/11, 9/11, 9/11. How is that relevant to a health care discussion? Fannie and Freddie. MF Global. You sound incoherent.
I don't know about you but I want to live in a democracy where the people lead and the people elect representatives to REPRESENT their interests. If you want a country where you follow your leader, go live in Saudi Arabia.
Posted Thu, Mar 29, 10:48 a.m. Inappropriate
Better to sound incoherent than to actually be incoherent. Your posting from 11:22 AM
"The Republicans really have no record to run on. They've accomplished nothing, except allowing 9/11 to happen. And the entire economy to crash in 2008. You can call that the echo chamber. Most people just call it history."
Then you go on to rebut yourself.
"You've used the typical propaganda tactic of tossing out a whole bunch of issues rather than present 1 single fact about anything. 9/11, 9/11, 9/11. How is that relevant to a health care discussion? Fannie and Freddie. MF Global. You sound incoherent."
Pot Kettle Black.
Posted Thu, Mar 29, 1:46 p.m. Inappropriate
Another remarkable TVD column, in which he cites a Seattle Times article that has little or nothing to do with Jay Inslee's campaign strategy as evidence of Inslee's campaign strategy. And even when the Times writer posts a comment pointing that out, TVD refuses to acknowledge it and changes the subject. Classic TVD move. Regardless of what TVD says, it's egregious for Rob McKenna to try to evade all responsibility for the effort to strike down the whole health care reform law and its many popular provisions. He knew what he was signing onto when he signed his name on the lawsuit, which explicitly called for invaliding the entire law. And he should have to answer to Washington voters for that.
Posted Fri, Mar 30, 11:21 p.m. Inappropriate
I voted for McKenna for AG also, Cameron. AG's quite a different job than governor. Many of us actually think when we discuss issues, and when we vote.
You apparently rely upon strawmen arguments rather than thought. God knows what you do when you vote.
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