Posted Thu, Mar 22, 8:55 a.m.

Guys, Gallup is saying one thing, ABC and CBS disagree. Candidates' actions are driven by polling. All the candidates, including Obama, are talking about gas and energy. If the Rs' attacks weren't moving numbers Obama would ignore them.

Posted Wed, Mar 21, 3:11 p.m.

Here is the CBS poll that found roughly the same thing as the ABC poll http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-57395703-503544/poll-obamas-approval-rating-sinks-to-new-low/ If gas prices are having no affect on polling, why has Obama's approval dropped 2% in a month, while all the other economic news is good? And why is he talking about energy every ...

Posted Wed, Mar 21, 2:20 p.m.

Andy, The NY Times article acknowledges that gas prices affect polling. My analysis is that despite good news on job creation, the President's approval rating is not improving and the reason is rising gas prices. I never mentioned Iran, and I didn't offer my thoughts on energy policy or WHY ...

Posted Wed, Mar 21, 12:11 p.m.

Andy, Fair or not, you don't think rising gas prices have affected the President's poll ratings and will continue to do so? I do. http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/293940/inside-gas-price-polling-numbers-j-t-young I am not predicting anything; I am reporting how things look today. I am not advocating anything. Crosscut asks me to be an analyst, not ...

Posted Tue, Mar 20, 5:33 p.m.

I want to correct one mistake I made: Sen. Baumgartner, because he is running for a federal office, is not subject the state freeze on campaign fundraising during the legislative session.

Posted Tue, Mar 20, 11:27 a.m.

Andy, I would encourage you to look at the electoral map on realclearpolitics.com. Obama is ahead but the race is competitive. And who would you regard as the Seattle media?

Posted Tue, Feb 14, 9:45 p.m.

Bob, The 19th was very different then. I am talking about the 19th since the 1992 redistricting.

Posted Tue, Feb 14, 5:21 p.m.

I didn't know Linda was running when I wrote this. She is also a strong candidate. Looks like the GOP will have two strong candidates for this seat.

Posted Tue, Feb 14, 10:12 a.m.

Dan, The top 2 primary and our vote by mail system makes it very difficult for the base of either Party to oust an incumbent. If we had a "normal" primary system I would agree with you that Litzow would face a serious challenge.

Posted Wed, Feb 8, 6:40 a.m.

I wrote this before Santorum swept Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri. I still believe Romney is the inevitable nominee, if only because the other contenders have significant flaws as candidates. But this shows again that Republicans are not excited about uniting behind Romney. Romney many not lock this up until the ...

Posted Tue, Oct 18, 12:32 p.m.

I am part of the campaign team and I stand by our message. Ted, I would ask you to respond to the studies by the CDC and the WSLCB. More stores selling this producet means more consumption and easier access for teenagers. And if you want to talk about motive, ...

Posted Tue, Oct 18, 11:42 a.m.

Ted, please tell me one thing the no campaign on 1183 has said that is not true or accurate. The initiative will increase the number of stores selling hard liquor by at least 500%. Studies by the CDC indicate this will increase consumption and problem drinking. The Liquor Control Board ...

Posted Tue, Mar 8, 10:20 a.m.

Rep. Eddy, I didn't say Sen. Zarelli was engaged in political posturing. But a budget is not a math problem; there is no one correct answer. What you cut or add is based on your values and beliefs. Republicans traditionally fight for a budget without tax increases. With taxes off ...

Posted Wed, Nov 24, 8:09 a.m.

But Bella, Obama can't pass anything without going through the Republican House. The two sides can veto each other. Parity.

Posted Tue, Nov 23, 3:07 p.m.

Sean- The GOP is on the margins? Control the U.S. House A majority of Governors A majority of state legislatures In Washington State the GOP controls 4 of the 9 seats in Congress and is within 3 seats in the Senate and 9 seats in the House. No wave? The ...

Posted Mon, Nov 22, 4:11 p.m.

Kage- Rossi won Cowlitz and Wahkiakum counties, and he did better in Pacific county than he did in 2004. He won over 90% of the vote among Republicans and those who identified themselves as conservatives. As far as I can tell the base was with Dino 100%. If you don't ...

Posted Mon, Nov 22, 4 p.m.

Can I remind everyone of something? If just 2.5% of the voters - less than three people out of 100 - had chosen Rossi instead of Murray, he would have won. If Rossi had gotten 45% of the vote among moderates instead of 42% he would have won. Republicans are ...

Posted Sat, Nov 20, 10:21 a.m.

Not sure why everyone focuses on Rasmussen. The poll they did for FOX was within the MOE. The one that was way off was PPP. Wilbur, the difference between pollsters was the method of screening for likely voters. The UW poll used vote history as the basis for their screen, ...

Posted Fri, Nov 19, 2:43 p.m.

I didn't predict a Rossi victory in May or at any other point, and my final articles said the race was too close to call. And PPP is a Democratic polling firm.

Posted Tue, Nov 9, 8:08 a.m.

Conservatives, including evangelical Christians are a HUGE voting block. Republicans need them in order to put together a winning coalition. If the GOP suddenly shifted to the left on social issues it would get fewer votes, not more. Quiller is right. Rockefeller/Evans Republicans are now Democrats. But blue collar Christians ...

Posted Mon, Nov 8, 10:59 p.m.

Kage: The Republican world did unit behind Dino. David: The issues you cite are not the issues that motivate most people, particularly in a Federal race, and Dan Evans was elected in the era before Reagan and before Roe v Wade. The world is a very different place now. Conservatives ...

Posted Mon, Nov 8, 1:41 p.m.

I will be very blunt: Republicans should seek to win every vote from every American. But if they can't win the votes of rich white suburbanites they have no chance.

Posted Mon, Nov 8, 9:57 a.m.

David- Any Republican who would appeal to a significant number of Seattle voters would never make it to the November ballot. The key is the suburbs. As I pointed out in the piece, the GOP has won back 7 suburban leg seats in the last two elections. The wins by ...

Posted Mon, Nov 8, 9:25 a.m.

GaryP- I don't think the data supports this argument. Polls have consistently shown that affluent, well educated voters are trending towards the Democrats. I think that explains the political change on the eastside.

Posted Wed, Nov 3, 11:50 a.m.

I am quoting from Shortridge's memo. I agree the first bullet is the weakest part of the argument.

Posted Mon, Nov 1, 9:54 p.m.

Bella, It is broken down as you suggest on the King County website.

Posted Mon, Nov 1, 8:56 p.m.

Bella, There were 930,000 votes cast in King County in 2008, and there were 630,000 cast in King in 2006. If King County has a big turnoout right now it looks like it will be because of Republicans in the suburbs. Look at the link I provided. Turnout in the ...

Posted Sun, Oct 31, 7:52 p.m.

Bella, 55 seats changing hands in the House is not average. It is a rout. The Ds lost 52 seats in the Republican lanslide of 1994. Real Clear Politics is projecting Republican gains of 66 seats in the House and 8 seats in the Senate. That is a landslide. And ...

Posted Sun, Oct 31, 12:37 p.m.

It is Sunday morning and all the polling continues to indicate a GOP landslide. I think our Senate race is literally unpredictable. Everything I am seeing and hearing says it is within the margin of error one way or the other. One thing I want to get out there before ...

Posted Sat, Oct 30, 12:20 p.m.

Matt Barreto emailed me regarding their method of screening for likely voters: "Our likely voter model is based on vote history + self reported vote-by-mail + self-reported interest in 2010 election, which is explained on our PDF release. if somebody did not vote in 2006 but they tell us they ...

Posted Sat, Oct 30, 9:47 a.m.

Marist poll this morning: Murray 49% Rossi 48%, with Republicans more enthusiastic than Democrats. Live interviews with cell phones included. Its dead even folks. http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/WA101026/October%2030,%202010_WA_Complete%20Survey%20Findings.pdf

Posted Fri, Oct 29, 11:48 p.m.

Quiller, That's all very interesting, but its not relevant to what you said. You said the Washington Poll had a better record than SUSA or Rasmussen. The Washington Poll is new. It debuted in 2006. In 2006 the final UW poll said Cantwell +12. SUSA said Cantwell +13. Rasmussen said ...

Posted Fri, Oct 29, 6:25 p.m.

Quiller, that is simply not true. The Washington Poll did not differ from SUSA or Rasmussen in 2006 or 2008. All got the winner right. And SUSA was dead on in the races for Governor and President in 2008. BTW, accurate means being within the margin of error, not just ...

Posted Fri, Oct 29, 9:23 a.m.

And this morning a very significant poll from SurveyUSA: Rossi 47%, Murray 47%. This one included cell phones, and this one finally has a partisan gap in the sample that seems realistic: +4% for the Democrats. The previous SUSA sample was +9% for the Ds. Rasmussen and SUSA have the ...

Posted Thu, Oct 28, 11:06 a.m.

As of October 13, Muri had raised less than $200,000 over the total campaign, and half of that was raised before the Primary. I live in the 9th and I have never seen a Muri TV ad or heard a Muri radio ad.

Posted Mon, Oct 25, 5:23 p.m.

Quiller, The only polling I have heard of in legislative races looked good for Republicans. The most recent SurveyUSA poll showed a +6% advantage for the Democrats in the 2nd CD. No way.

Posted Sun, Oct 24, 10:46 a.m.

My focus on Crosscut this year has been on the horserace. Maybe I will write a bit more about issues once the election is over. In the meantime, anyone have any comments on the substance of what Trende and I are talking about?

Posted Wed, Oct 20, 2:05 p.m.

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2010/images/10/13/topstate6.pdf There you go.

Posted Wed, Oct 20, 12:06 p.m.

Bella, I looked directly at the information CNN released. I think you and I are just describing the same thing differently. CNN polled 1340 registered voters. Of those they believe 850 are likely voters. The results among LVs are what get reported in the media and on the internet. And ...

Posted Wed, Oct 20, 6:11 a.m.

Bella: Its the same poll. What gets reported is the result among likely voters, and what I am questioning is CNN's definition of likely voters.

Posted Tue, Oct 19, 8:14 p.m.

Jan: Most of the polls have Murray "ahead," but within the margin or error and under 50%. That is far different than the Elway and CNN polls. Bella: I am referring to the CNN/Time poll of likely voters that showed Murray ahead by 8%. I am not aware of any ...

Posted Tue, Oct 19, 3:25 p.m.

Quiller- The Moore numbers are not "out of date." The PPP poll's sample is only +3 for the Ds and it shows the race within the margin of error - basically a dead heat. I think this is credible, far more credible than the Elway or CNN poll.

Posted Mon, Oct 18, 10:17 a.m.

To Super_Steve: Most pollsters continue polling right up until the weekend before the election. In our state they will ask, "have you already voted, and if so, who did you vote for?" It was not my intent to pick a fight with Mr. Elway. What interests me is why the ...

Posted Fri, Oct 8, 5:26 p.m.

I went to the 538 site. Neither of the two recent Rasmussen polls were included.

Posted Fri, Oct 8, 3:58 p.m.

Here is Silver's most recent analysis of Washington State. Apparently he was unaware of the last two public polls showing Rossi ahead: In Washington, the Democrat, Patty Murray, had also seemed to strengthen her position; several polls released last month had shown her with a lead. Since then, nonpartisan pollsters ...

Posted Fri, Oct 1, 4:54 p.m.

Cameron I don't work for people, organizations or issues unless I believe in them. I am a Republican, not a Libertarian. I believe government needs to regulate or prohibit certain activities in order to preseve a civil society. Among those activities would be drinking alcohol, and to me, going from ...

Posted Mon, Sep 27, 2:56 p.m.

quiller, Yes, the generic gap has closed a little bit. But the largest generic lead the GOP has ever had prior to this year was 5% back in 1994. The generic numbers still indicate a huge year for Republicans. Regarding cell phones and SurveyUSA, cell phones were around for the ...

Posted Tue, Sep 21, 12:11 p.m.

Quiller, Where do you get these polls no one else has seen or ever heard of?

Posted Mon, Sep 20, 8:34 p.m.

Adam Smith got only 51% in the primary. There is no way he is ahead by "more than 15%."

Posted Fri, Sep 10, 1:04 p.m.

I think the top 2 system had a major impact. It made Dino Rossi's path to November much simpler. It has resulted in many races in November pitting two members of the same Party against each other. And it helped Republicans gain momentum by being able to demonstrate how many ...

Posted Fri, Sep 10, 9:18 a.m.

Goforride, Obama and Kerry and Gore all won the 8th CD. Reichert is not in a safe R district. And there are many GOP legislators in competitive districts. None of them are threatened at all.

Posted Wed, Sep 8, 2:24 p.m.

GaryP, So you don't trust KING's numbers but you do trust a poll from the Democratic Senatorial Committee? As I said in the article, some people just can't accept the fact that Sen. Murray is in a very tough race. Sen. Gorton cruised to re-election in 1994, then lost six ...

Posted Wed, Sep 8, 1:56 p.m.

GaryP,(and others) I am not here to argue that people should vote Republican, or to defend Republican policies, or to attack President Obama or the Democrats. Maybe I will write opinion pieces again sometime in the future. This year I am just trying to provide information on how the election ...

Posted Wed, Sep 8, 12:55 p.m.

Baker, The 48th district Senate race is one of the hot races everyone is watching. The House races are competitive, but not as close as many others around the state.

Posted Wed, Sep 8, 12:47 p.m.

quiller, I wasn't aware of the Fairbanks poll. I don't know enough about it to comment. Your statement about a Moore poll is not accurate. I have not seen or heard of any recent polling done by Moore Information.

Posted Wed, Sep 8, 11:03 a.m.

dreneman, I talked about the 26th. Seaquist has a tough race. Kilmer not so much.

Posted Wed, Sep 8, 10:59 a.m.

Gary I am citing the primary election results, the Rasmussen poll, and the KING 5/SurveyUSA poll. All three show Rossi in the lead.

Posted Wed, Sep 8, 10:38 a.m.

Pudge, The SurveyUSA poll is new data in the Koster race. That is what caused me to change it to a toss up. I am not trying to predict winners; I am just reporting where things stand now

Posted Wed, Sep 8, 10:33 a.m.

Gary, History shows Washington voters DO closely follow national trends. See 1994, 1992, 1998, and 2006. Regarding the Senate race, the numbers say what they say: Rossi is ahead right now.

Posted Wed, Sep 8, 8:10 a.m.

A few observations about the Gallup poll showing the parties tied in the generic ballot (http://www.gallup.com/poll/142892/Parties-Tied-Generic-Ballot.aspx): 1. Gallup released their numbers after I had submitted this piece. 2. The Gallup results are either an abberration, or an indication that the trend has shifted. Given how inconsistent Gallup has been this ...

Posted Wed, Sep 8, 8:06 a.m.

Steve, This is meant to be one of a series of reports on the 2010 election. If the trend changes I will certainly write about it.

Posted Fri, Aug 20, 6:46 p.m.

quiller, Rs are ahead of Ds in Pierce, Snohomish and Spokane.

Posted Fri, Aug 20, 7:49 a.m.

Lets look at some facts: Murray is below 50% in the polls - a major danger sign for incumbents - and well below 50% in the primary. Republicans outpolled Ds in the primary. Republicans outpolled Ds in Pierce and Snohomish counties, the key areas of the state. (Murray may have ...

Posted Wed, Aug 18, 10:16 p.m.

In past years I have written about campaigns and policy issues. http://crosscut.com/account/chrisUNDERSCOREvance/ This year I am focused on one thing here: the 2010 midterm elections. And so far the story hasn't changed all year. If the trend shifts I will certainly write about it.

Posted Wed, Aug 18, 12:33 p.m.

I strongly disagree. We have decades of experience here with the blanket/Top 2 primary. Looking at past elections, the results in November have rarely deviated more than a few percentage points from the results in the primary. And what matters in the Senate race is not that Murray got more ...

Posted Mon, Aug 2, 3:25 p.m.

Pudge, I don't consider this "washingtonstatepolls" reliable. I think Koster has a good chance. I just haven't seen any REAL polling data.

Posted Mon, Aug 2, 12:49 p.m.

And now Gallup has the Republicans up 5% again in the generic ballot. Has anything changed? Probably not. Gallup is just really inconsistent. So much for the wave receeding.

Posted Sat, Jul 31, 5:09 p.m.

Regarding the generic ballot, FOX, Rasmussen, Reuters, CNN, and Quinipiac all show Republicans ahead by anywhere from 2% to 11%. The Gallup poll is an outlier. Is it an accurate outlier? Time will tell. And Murray is consistenly below 50% in every poll. That is the key indicator.

Posted Fri, Jul 30, 2:44 p.m.

I submitted this too soon! Lots of new polling data. New Survey USA Washington State poll numbers (at least they're new to me) Obama's approval rating is down to 44%, Murray's is down to 41%, and Gregoire's is down to 29%. Wow.

Posted Fri, Jul 30, 9:46 a.m.

Ryan, Sorry. I didn't include debt. Debt is often debt to the candidate which may or may not be repaid. I just subtracted spent from raised. That gives you COH.

Posted Fri, Jul 30, 9:41 a.m.

Ryan, I did the same, but I did it several days ago. They may have changed.

Posted Fri, Jul 30, 8:43 a.m.

DocMaynard: Politicians choose their leaders based on a lot of different factors. Winning eleections is only one of them. The House Rs gained seats the last election, and recruited several good candidates this year. They will gains seats. But I hope they do evaluate their fundraising operation. No reason they ...

Posted Fri, Jul 30, 8:31 a.m.

New Rasmussen poll this morning: Murray 49% Rossi 47%. A little bit of good news for Murray, but it doesn't change the big picture. This race is a toss up.

Posted Fri, Jul 30, 8:19 a.m.

Pudge, Not sure the GOP base vote in the 2nd is big enough to call this a toss up, and I haven't seen any polling data on the race. Can you point me to a poll I might have missed? In the 44th, Ferrie has no money. That makes it ...

Posted Wed, May 26, 3:20 p.m.

Ryan, Click on the link and read my article. The data is crystal clear.

Posted Mon, Apr 26, 11:10 a.m.

More evidence of what is going on from Gallup A recent Gallup poll finds that the partisan ID gap in the first quarter of 2010 is the narrowest it has been since President Bush's re-election. It is the latest in a series of datapoints that suggest that the Democrats are ...

Posted Wed, Apr 21, 11:59 a.m.

To dn: I rarely work for candidates and I am not working for any candidates now.

Posted Wed, Apr 21, 6:19 a.m.

The media is fascinated with the Tea Party phenomenon, and for some reason the notion persists that somehow it is going to harm Republicans. As I pointed out, so far this year the polling has been very consistent and it doesn't show a backlash against the Tea Partiers. Still six ...

Posted Thu, Feb 18, 3:43 p.m.

This is an interesting discussion, but completely irrelevant to what I wrote. I am not trying to be a Republican cheerleader or apologist. My intent is to offer factual information and analysis.

Posted Wed, Feb 17, 5:27 p.m.

To sdstarr: So far I am not seeing evidence of Tea Party vs. Establishment primary races. But it is early.

Posted Wed, Feb 17, 10:46 a.m.

Evidence of a Republican tide is everywhere. From the Real Clear Politics blog: "In Alabama, Republicans picked up a Democratic-held seat in the state House. Funeral home owner K.L. Brown (R) defeated teacher Ricky Haley (D) by nearly 14 points, giving Republicans 45 seats compared to the Democrats' 60. The ...

Posted Thu, Dec 31, 5:21 p.m.

Ivan, Do you have any facts to support your opinion that Hutchison isn't credible? I cited two facts: 1. Hutchison just carried the King County suburbs by a wide enough margin to offset the Seattle vote and win a statewide race. 2. Murray's favorable/unfavorable ratio is not high enough to ...

Posted Thu, Dec 31, 11:53 a.m.

Did I predict that Susan Hutchison would beat Patty Murray? No. What I said was Susan Hutchison would be a credible candidate with a chance to win in this atmosphere. That would be a big improvement over where the GOP was just a few months ago.

Posted Wed, Dec 30, 5:05 p.m.

Ryan, "The election for Governor was over early in 2008." That just isn't true: http://crosscut.com/2008/12/03/2008-election/18677/

Posted Thu, Nov 5, 9:52 a.m.

Politics is part art, and part science. I certainly have strong opinions, but I try and let data and facts drive my writing and analysis. Clearly, Republicans did better with suburban voters in NJ and Virginia, and in the other races Barone cited. In King County. Hutchison is going to ...

Posted Thu, Oct 8, 8:20 a.m.

I am not an expert on that contract, but you have to remember this: law enforcement officers have binding arbitration. Under that process King County has no choice other than to keep their compensation levels competitive with other large, urban, west coast counties. If they don't, an arbitrator will.

Posted Wed, Oct 7, 8:11 p.m.

I represent the Corrections Officers, not the Sheriff's deputies. Cutting the pay of police officers is not realistic, and wouldn't yield nearly enough money to fill the revenue gap.

Posted Wed, Oct 7, 2:55 p.m.

Abunai, Sewer rate dollars must be spent to run the sewer system. Bus fares, a portion of the sales tax, and federal transportation dollars must be spent on transit. State law gives the county a special property tax levy in the unincorporated areas in order fund roads in the unincorporated ...

Posted Wed, Oct 7, 9:51 a.m.

The only significant workload change that results from an incorporation is fewer police patrols in the area, and fewer misdemeanants in the jail. The recent incorporations have not been large enough to make a real difference.

Posted Tue, Oct 6, 7:59 p.m.

"Staff?". Eighty two percent of King County's general fund employees are public safety personnel. Police, prosecutors, corrections officers, judges, bailiffs, etc. That is who we are talking about, not bureaucrats.

Posted Tue, Oct 6, 6:12 p.m.

Abunai, Yes, when the unincorporated area shrinks the county can spend less on police and parks. But incorporations and annexations don't affect other regional services, such as courts, jails, and elections. The big change has been the drop in revenue.

Posted Tue, Oct 6, 2:20 p.m.

One minor clarification: Like any "journalist," I wrote the piece, but not the headline. The headline says we need "higher taxes." Not exactly what I said. I suggested that a new funding model was needed for large urban counties. That model could include higher taxes, or it could consist of ...

Posted Tue, Sep 15, 4:08 p.m.

"Divisive liberal change agent." Let me explain. President Obama has chosen to pursue policies such as cap and trade and a public option for health care which are favored by the liberal wing of the Democratic Party. There are a lot of moderate Democrats who won't support Obama on these ...

Posted Mon, Sep 14, 4:44 p.m.

I am not surprised at the passion here. It is indicative of the main point I was trying to make: we are back to being a nation deeply divided. I hope people will understand that it is not my intent be a polemicist here, or when I appear on KING ...

Posted Wed, Aug 26, 8:47 p.m.

And does Kurt Triplett have a partisan motive too? http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2009748050_webflood26m.html

Posted Wed, Aug 26, 2:50 p.m.

Whether the damage existed for years or not is irrelevant. The point is this winter the Corp may intentionally release enough water to overtop the levies and cause major flooding. That has never happened before.

Posted Wed, Aug 26, 11:10 a.m.

Well, at some point presidencies do become politcally doomed, ala George W. Bush for the last two years of his second term. My point was Obama's fate really rests with the economy, not his two signature legislative initiatives. Regarding the Green River you are just wrong. Damage to the Howard ...

Posted Wed, Aug 26, 9:16 a.m.

And over which of these issues/events do you detect "mass hysteria?"

Posted Sat, Jun 27, 8:51 a.m.

Thanks Deb, but let me make it really clear: I am not endorsing any of the candidates in this piece.

Posted Fri, Jun 26, 10:03 a.m.

Regional issues? What "regional issues?" Yes, the Executive and many members of the Council are key players on regional bodies. I was a member of the PSRC Executive Board and the Growth Management Planning Council. But all the big regional decisions on land use and transportation have been made. Really. ...

Posted Fri, May 29, 10:39 a.m.

Both wings have their false issue distractions. For the left it is "corporate welfare." We have decided to pay for everyone's retirement, and everyone's health care if they are over 65, but we haven't decided whether or not to raise taxes high enough to actually cover the costs. We either ...

Posted Thu, Apr 23, 1:34 p.m.

Please see my earlier piece on the "tax the rich" myth: http://crosscut.com/2009/03/04/politics-government/18878/

Posted Thu, Apr 23, 11:07 a.m.

Terry, The problem isn't the short term deficit, it is the long term structural debt. Even when Clinton "balanced the budget," we were still deeply in debt because taxes aren't high enough to fund the middle class entitlement structure we have created. (Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid) Now Obama proposes both ...

Posted Wed, Apr 22, 3:39 p.m.

No, my theory is spending money you don't have and living on credit is not a sustainable way to run a government.

Posted Wed, Apr 22, 6:54 a.m.

Terry, The choice isn't between France and Somalia; it is between France and the America we are used to: relatively low taxes, entrepreneurship, and growth. The government Obama proposes can't be sustained without European levels of taxation. That is the choice America faces and the debate is just begining.

Posted Fri, Mar 27, 9:08 a.m.

Angie, Please re-read this part of my piece: "For decades, under Democrats and Republicans, we have refused to face the reality that we can’t afford the government we have created at the tax levels we are willing to pay. Now President Obama is promising to accelerate this trend by massively ...

Posted Mon, Feb 2, 9:05 a.m.

Remember, no one is talking about new freeways like I-605. These are all improvement projects to existing corridors. And these are projects both Republicans and Democrats believe are needed. Go back and read the RTID report http://www.rtid.org/

Posted Thu, Jan 22, 6:31 a.m.

I will always disclose any client relationships associated with anything I write which Crosscut chooses to use. There are not such relationships associated with this piece.

Posted Wed, Jan 21, 10:13 p.m.

Bjorn, I'm sorry, but I don't see a link between our national debt, which is caused by the government spending and borrowing, and the trade deficit, which is caused by individuals choosing to buy goods from overseas.

Posted Wed, Jan 21, 3:12 p.m.

Bjorn, No, a trade imbalance does not concern me. http://www.freetrade.org/issues/deficit.html My main point here is to illustrate that Washington State's Democratic leaders have always supported free trade. Will they do so now?

Posted Sat, Dec 27, 10:32 a.m.

dn, George W. Bush massively increased America's foreign aid efforts. http://www.america.gov/st/washfile-english/2007/February/20070205173017esnamfuak8.193606e-02.html Another specific policy that Republicans need to talk about more often

Posted Sat, Dec 27, 10:10 a.m.

Hans, I think we're both straying a bit from the orginal subject. I simply believe that Republicans have relied too much on rhetoric in the past and need to get specific in order to win back swing voters.

Posted Fri, Dec 26, 5:57 p.m.

J.R., I think the events of the last 4 years, plus Obama's skills as a candidate, got him elected. I think the stock market collapse turned a close race into a landslide.

Posted Fri, Dec 26, 12:33 p.m.

Hans, Soaring rhetoric can go down in history, but events drive politics; and elections are usually lost, not won: The Founders weren't able to generate support for independence until the British overreached and sent a large body of troops to America and attacked Boston. Lincoln only won in 1860 because ...

Posted Fri, Dec 26, 10:33 a.m.

Hans, You make a lot of valid and interesting points. Conservatives, however, need to remember that politics is about governing, not debating theories. To win back swing voters conservatives/Republicans need to offer specific solutions to real problems. Phrases like "strong communities, the environment, and free markets," don't mean anything to ...

Posted Sat, Dec 20, 10:26 a.m.

I think Obama will have a very long honeymoon. After all the rancour of the last eight years all but the most partisan Republicans want Obama to succeed. There may continue to be scandal seepage from Chicago, but unless it gets really serious and directly tied to Obama himself, people ...

Posted Thu, Dec 18, 10:57 a.m.

Steve, Even with the "bailout," the Dow fell over 2,000 points in early October. That event is what decided the race. I don't think it would've mattered very much which side of the debate McCain was on, no Republican could've been elected President after that.

Posted Thu, Dec 18, 9:28 a.m.

Steve, McCain was the most electable Republican. As late as mid-September he was winning. Then the stock market lost 25% of it's value. McCain's defeat had nothing to do with his moderate stands on issues, it had to do with the anti-Republican backlash created by the events of the Bush ...

Posted Wed, Dec 17, 12:18 p.m.

Spike, I don't agree. The sex offender ads run by the Republican Governor's Association may or may not have been helpful (I never saw any tracking poll data on that) but they certainly weren't the coup de grace. That came from Wall Street.

Posted Wed, Dec 17, 11:50 a.m.

Spike, Take a look at my earlier piece on why Dino lost. I think events, not advertising, made the difference.

Posted Wed, Dec 17, 7:45 a.m.

Debo, From your comments I think you have strongly held values which drive your voting decisions. You are probably not the type of voter I am describing.

Posted Wed, Dec 3, 10:18 a.m.

"Why wasn't this trend reflected in the State House and Senate races? Republicans picked up one seat in each chamber." — eristalis Some Republicans were able to rise above the tide. McKenna and Reichert for instance. The dynamics of indivdual races matter. But Republicans didn't win back any seats in ...

Posted Wed, Dec 3, 9:23 a.m.

"I suspect turnout was low among some past voters, such as disaffected republicans. That would leave room for lots of new voters without a big increase in votes." At some point a check of the voter file could confirm this, but I really doubt that a significant percentage of voters ...

Posted Tue, Nov 6, 3:50 p.m.

The County Council is proportional!: That's the point! By law it must represent all areas of the county equally. If you are worried about Seattle having too much power you should support my idea. A majority of the members of the County Council do not live in or represent Seattle.

Posted Tue, Nov 6, 1:53 p.m.

No, trust the people: Trust the King County Council? Trust Phillips, Constantine, Ferguson, Gossett, and Patterson? The reformers all say we need a directly elected regional government. My point is we already have one! If you don't like who represents you on the Council, elect someone else. If you think ...

Posted Tue, Nov 6, 1:29 p.m.

I think you missed my point: The County Council hasn't failed to deliver on transportation infrastructue. They haven't been given the power to succeed or fail.

Posted Tue, Nov 6, 9:40 a.m.

No. Seperate regional and loca: City Councils should decide local city issues, but the County Council should have complete control over regional issues.

Posted Mon, Oct 22, 11:38 a.m.

Doorbelling: Rely on doobelling in a countywide election? Good luck with that! Yes, going door to door is something you do, but it can't take the place of money.

Posted Mon, Oct 22, 11:35 a.m.

I don't do campaigns: I should have anticipated this. I am not a campaign consultant, and I am not working on any campaigns. Maybe I will someday, but I doubt it. I do public affairs/issue management consulting. My current clients are unions and local governments. I have also worked for ...

Posted Mon, Oct 22, 9:46 a.m.

Not there yet: The internet becomes more important every election cycle, but we are not yet to a point where the internet can replace traditional paid advertising. There was once a time when money wasn't nearly as important as having a network of grassroots workers to spread your message. For ...

Posted Thu, Oct 4, 7:45 p.m.

Objectivity: In the interest of full disclosure: Some have asked my editor if I am doing any consulting work for the proponents of Prop. 1, the roads and transit measure. The answer is no. Last year, when I was with the Gallatin Group, a public affairs consulting firm, we were ...

Posted Thu, Oct 4, 10:43 a.m.

Housing costs: Small houses in West Seattle now cost as much, or more, than large houses in second ring suburbs, like Puyallup.

Posted Thu, Oct 4, 10:18 a.m.

Yes. The ports drive the economy: One in three jobs in Washington State are based on trade. Seattle cannot be allowed to become nothing but a boutique village. We need our ports and our heavy industry, and they need trucks that can actually move around. www.seattle.gov/tda/talkingpoints.htm

Posted Thu, Oct 4, 8:17 a.m.

I knew someone would make this argument: I think climate change is a real issue: "Where it is effective, transit is a better option for society than single-occupant vehicles, and climate change is a major challenge....There will be lots more cars on our roads in the future. If we're lucky, ...

Posted Tue, Sep 18, 7:57 p.m.

I would agree: "If anything, 1993 marks a sort of high-water mark for achievement. The legislature actually put together a package of reforms and passed it." Read part two tomorrow.

Posted Tue, Sep 18, 4:31 p.m.

RE: Two things: No. Grades are subjective. They are the opinion of the individual teacher. For decades kids have moved through our public schools getting decent grades, graduated, then needed remedial math and reading training by their college or employer. Read part 2 tomorrow.

Posted Tue, Sep 18, 2:28 p.m.

RE: Two things: Sean, In your school there are clear academic standards, right? That is what was lacking in our public schools. Read part 2 tomorrow. By the way, I am the parent of two kids in the public school system.

Posted Tue, Sep 18, 2:16 p.m.

Simply not true: "So far, the only people who have to suffer any consequences are the students who cannot pass the WASL. They are not getting diplomas that they might otherwise have received." No student has been denied their diploma due to failing the WASL. "Let's also not forget one ...

Posted Tue, Sep 18, 11:28 a.m.

And....: Read part 2 tomorrow.

Posted Tue, Sep 18, 11:19 a.m.

Two things: 1. The state standards and test were not supposed to drive local curriculum. 2. How can schools be accountable to parents if there are no defined academic standards against which to measure student progress? How can you know if your kids are learning if there is no bar ...

Posted Tue, Sep 18, 10:03 a.m.

RE: One Suggestion: The WASL was intended to be used to hold individuals accountable for results. That is exactly what isn't happening.

Posted Mon, Aug 27, 8:43 a.m.

What about Western?: My alma mater was #2 among public schools in the west again!

Posted Wed, Aug 22, 10:48 p.m.

RE: those pesky facts: 1. The Port Commission is a countywide office. Less than one-third of the people who live in King County live in Seattle. 2. Even in Seattle, how can you possibly link any candidate for Port Commission with the Bush administration?!

Posted Wed, Aug 22, 5:11 p.m.

RE: epublicans have issues: All I know is what the polls say now. Right now Clinton looks very beatable in a national election, despite how unpopular Republicans are generally. But it is very, very, VERY early.

Posted Wed, Aug 22, 5:08 p.m.

RE: crosscut or crossfire?: "Partisan cheerleading?" I think I spend more time talking about how much trouble the GOP is in!

Posted Wed, Aug 22, 3:34 p.m.

RE: those pesky facts: Just about everyone else on the ballot yesterday running for non-partisan office was a Democrat, but you don't hear their partisanship used as a label. Why not? On KUOW, "Republican" is not used as a compliment.

Posted Thu, Aug 2, 3:30 p.m.

Here is an example: I took this from a website promoting a light rail system in Austin, TX. Notice how they grant the premise that densities aren't great enough now. This is exactly the same argument advanced here on a regular basis. Claim: The density along the proposed light-rail route ...

Posted Thu, Aug 2, 3:15 p.m.

RE: Back it up, please: The paragraph about the Freemanites was meant to represent their viewpoint, not mine. The second paragraph you cite is based on what I was consistently told by staff and experts while a member of the County Council. As David Brewster mentioned in his article, it ...

Posted Thu, Aug 2, 1:04 p.m.

Analysis, not advocacy: I am not advocating for any position. My intention was to analyze the politics behind the ballot measure.

Posted Thu, Jul 26, 11:33 a.m.

RE: Bring on Rossi...: It wasn't my task to write a piece about national issues. I will leave that to the national pundits. And the Governors race will not be about Iraq. But you are exactly right. National issues are dragging local Republicans down here. If Republicans nominate someone for ...

Posted Thu, Jul 26, 10:46 a.m.

RE: Bring on Rossi...: Well, if you want Republicans to stand against the Bush administration and renounce conservatism I guess you are recomending that Republicans become ...Democrats. And I wouldn't root for Dino to run if I were you. Have you seen the recent polling? He is dead even with ...

Posted Tue, Jul 24, 5:16 p.m.

RE: Lost in Seattle: Will, I think there have been enough studies and surveys done on the voting behavior of journalists to conclude that it IS true!

Posted Tue, Jul 24, 1:12 p.m.

RE: Lost in Seattle: The mainstream media does have a liberal bias - but that has always been the case. That fact doesn't account for what has happened in recent elections.