Median condominium prices in Chicago, notes Harvard urban economist Edward Glaeser, are $232,000. That's very low, even a shade under those in Trenton, N.J. (The King County median price for condos is $285,000.) What do those smart urbanists in Chicago know about affordability?
The answer, according to this interview with Glaeser,director of Harvard's Taubman Center for State and Local Government, is that Chicago is extremely pro-growth. Instead of layering on more and more land-use and design controls, Chicago has a pro-growth environment, and all those new housing units help keep the prices down. Glaeser explains:
Over the past two years, Chicago has permitted around 14,000 units per year. Los Angeles permitted less than 10,000 units in 2007 and 14,500 units in 2006. Yet Los Angeles has almost twice the land area and over 50 percent more population. It is substantially less dense than Chicago, and there is substantially more demand for Los Angeles, yet Chicago is building more.
Bringing more units to market — think of all those cranes along the lake — explains in some part of why Chicago is more affordable. The absence of land-use controls [means] prices for condos will tend towards construction costs. After all, you can always build taller buildings.
Similarly, Glaeser points to four of the fastest-growing areas in the nation, Atlanta, Dallas, Houston, and Phoenix, which "offer an astonishing high standard of living for ordinary Americans." These cities are comfortable serving the demand for big houses on the edge of urban areas, in effect trading sprawl for an ample supply of homes that keep the average price low. That seems like a bad trade-off for amenities cities like Seattle and Portland, but the compensation is a social one: those cities that "offer an astonishingly high standard of living for ordinary Americans."
Seattle's Is-Everybody-Happy? style of politics fondly imagines that you can combine quality of life, density, design-control, growth-constraints, and affordability. But in free-market America that's hard to pull off. Tamp down growth for all kinds of good reasons, and you will usually drive up housing prices. Mayor Greg Nickels, a native of Chicago, seems to understand that providing incentives for growth of apartment buildings in Seattle, even if we blot out the sky, is one way to tackle the affordability issues. Anybody got another idea?
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Comments:
Posted Wed, Jul 30, 11:58 a.m. Inappropriate
More to the Onion than meets the eye: In three-quarters of a century, Chicago has had a net decline in population nearly equal to the entire population of the city of Seattle. (1940 = 3,396,808 & 2006 = 2,873,790 respectively) I wonder if the full answer of modest purchase prices has as much or more to do with excess housing inventories and reclaiming previously built environments as it does with universally discrediting growth management policy in favor of laissez-faire markets.
Posted Wed, Jul 30, 7:08 p.m. Inappropriate
I'm not sure Chicago's the best comparison: But I will gladly offer suggestions for affordable in-city housing.
* Allow more flexible and smaller housing and apartments.
* Remove parking requirements.
* Upzoning. (higher supply would drop prices)
* Rebuild an entire area near Link without car-sized streets. The resulting density could make a very livible area of the city.
Posted Thu, Jul 31, 9:50 a.m. Inappropriate
RE: I'm not sure Chicago's the best comparison: .
Upzoning is NOT the answer. In fact, you get exactly the opposite effect.
Seattle is already zoned at 3x the amount of housing capacity we need for expected 2020 population. The idea that increasing that to 6x or 9x will solve affordability simply doesn't wash.
When you upzone, the land underneath becomes much more valuable. This is why the areas with the most dense zoning (downtown) have the highest housing prices. Developers who buy the upzoned land to develop it have to pay the higher price that comes with the higher potential capacity. This gets passed on in the form of higher housing prices. Developers who have land they already own upzoned typically won't leave money on the table, and charge prices similar to what a buying developer would pay. OR, they build fancier units. Either way, the outcome is the same -- higher prices.
You can watch this in action, sadly, in Northgate. The city proposes to upzone most everything a few blocks north of Northgate Way in a band roughly from I-5 to Northgate. All the currently affordable housing in the lots closest to I5 and behind the Target/Best Buy units will be replaced by large multi-use buildings whose rents will be higher (read the DEIS).
Another potential example is the White Center/Highlands area that Mayor Nickels has been trying to annex despite it being a terrible ($10M+ per year) drain on the city's budget. The low land prices there are very attractive to his developer friends, so he's making the push to bring it into the more developer-friendly confines of Seattle. It will come in as an Urban Village, which dramatically increases the potential density. Anyone who thinks that an Urban Village-ized White Center will be more affordable than it is now is kidding themselves.
Upzoning underneath currently affordable housing is the primary way we are pushing people of lower incomes out of the city. Sometimes called gentrification, lately (around here) called progress, whatever it's called it leads to higher prices.
It is instructive that when the business community in SODO and water-side Ballard approached City Hall about increasing prices pushing out their businesses, the reaction in City Hall was NOT to upzone the area to increase affordability. Their response was to limit development pressure -- an effective DOWNzone. This was endorsed by the Council and the Mayor. In the only relevant example in Seattle, therefore, the answer to lower prices was to downzone -- not upzone.
So forgive me if I don't agree with the developer-driven Planning Commission and the developer-owned Mayor that upzoning is the key to affordability. The facts simply do not prove it. The facts actually show the opposite is true here in Seattle.
The only three ways to have affordable housing -- and by that I mean housing for people at some percentage of median income -- is subsidy, tax breaks, or to make better use of "free" land. Tom Rasmussen has a Comp Plan amendment that could get at the last. We'll have a chance to vote on a levy renewal for the first in the next year or so. The middle was muddied by the recent incomplete MFTE amendment (incomplete because it should have been given a unit cap in relation to simliar programs with lower income percentages), but is fixable.
And your title is right, Chicago is not the best comparison. As Greg points out on his Smarter Neighbors blog, Chicago gets its averages down by redeveloping rusted-out industrial areas that are blighted. We don't have much of that here, so the comparison doesn't work.
Posted Thu, Jul 31, 10:02 a.m. Inappropriate
RE: I'm not sure Chicago's the best comparison: I think you're missing basic economics here. Given fixed demand, if supply goes up then prices go down. There are a few factors that seem to be confusing you. One is increased demand - housing prices are going up in the city whether or not you build new capacity (much less with new capacity). Another is that new housing is more valuable than old housing - this is true for a new house built in the suburbs and for a new condo built downtown. Does this break the basic economic model? No - since demand hasn't changed and supply has increased, overall prices go down. It may be the older housing stock that decreases in value, but the overall price goes down.
Posted Thu, Jul 31, 10:05 a.m. Inappropriate
RE: I'm not sure Chicago's the best comparison: Oh, and I've seen that 3x number before. Can you cite a source for that? I'm thinking whoever figured that assumed you'd raze all existing housing to the ground and build up to maximum zoning levels - not likely or cost effective.
If current zoning really was able to meet demand (let alone meet 3x demand) then upzoning wouldn't be a problem because it wouldn't do anything.