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A source "tight in the Obama campaign" has sent out a memo, meant to reassure anxious supporters by deflecting attention from national polls, where McCain is rising, and to the state-by-state electoral tally, where the election will be settled. While there might be some disinformation in such a message, and things are obviously still fluid, it makes for interesting reading. Washington and Oregon remain firmly in the "Obama solid" category, while Montana has joined Idaho in the "McCain solid" group.
The states Obama folks feel are solid are now 18, adding up to 217 electoral votes (270 needed to win). They are: Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, D.C., New York, Vermont, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, California, Oregon, Washington, and Hawaii.
Conceded to McCain are 22 states, with 174 electoral votes: West Virginia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, Louisiana, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, Montana, Wyoming, Idaho, Utah, Arizona, Alaska, and Missouri. Of these states, the Obama analysis counts Georgia, North Dakota, Montana, and Missouri as each potentially winnable by Obama, since the margin is only 5-6 points in McCain's favor.
That leaves 11 states in neither camp. Here's where the battlegrounds are. The Obama campaign figures it can win Michigan (Democratic in last two elections and Obama leads by 4-6 points), Pennsylvania (Democratic last two times and a 5-7 point Obama lead), New Mexico (Bush in 2004, Gore in 2000, and a 4-6 point Obama lead). Add these 43 electoral votes and Obama's projected total is up to 260. The Obama memo then concedes these states to McCain: Florida (Republican last two times and a 3-point McCain lead), North Carolina (GOP last two elections and 4-point McCain lead), and Indiana (same as North Carolina). That nets McCain 53 electoral votes, bringing the tally to 260-227.
That leaves, in this analysis, five states, currently dead heats, as the deciders. They are: Colorado (9 electoral votes), Virginia (13), Ohio (20), New Hampshire (4), and Nevada (5). Obama has to get 10 votes from this list, and either Virginia or Ohio would do the trick. McCain would have to win almost all five to prevail.
How accurate is all this, and might it be a rosy scenario meant to calm down nervous Democrats? Real Clear Politics, in its tracking of the race,agrees with the 217 votes for Obama but gives McCain 216. Assigning the toss-up states, RCP has Obama winning by a razor margin of 273-265. And most of the RCP consensus poll margins in the swing states reduce the Obama claimed advantage by about half. It's fair to say, as of the current snapshot in the eye of Hurricane Sarah, that the race is exceedingly close, and that most analysts still expect Obama to win.
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Comments:
Posted Sat, Sep 13, 6:26 p.m. Inappropriate
Sounds like wishful thinking - Washington is in Play!: On 9/10, in a survey of 500 likely voters, Rasmussen has Obama up by only 2, losing 10 points since August. Trending does not look good in other polls either. Obama is going to have to earn Washington.
Looks like the race is slipping to McCain in swingstates like Florida (McCain +5 to +8 in most recent polls) and PA (McCain +5).
Posted Mon, Sep 15, 12:54 p.m. Inappropriate
Support the National Popular Vote bill: The major shortcoming of the current system of electing the President is that presidential candidates concentrate their attention on a handful of closely divided "battleground" states. In 2004 two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people were merely spectators to the presidential election. Candidates have no reason to poll, visit, advertise, organize, campaign, or worry about the voter concerns in states where they are safely ahead or hopelessly behind. The reason for this is the winner-take-all rule under which all of a state's electoral votes are awarded to the candidate who gets the most votes in each separate state.
Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.
The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
Every vote would be politically relevant and equal in presidential elections.
The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes–that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes – 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.
See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com
susan