The Fed's intervention in AIG: possibly a stroke of genius by the White House
"Make no mistake," as the politicians like to say. They'll be discussing, and debating, the AIG takeover for the rest of all our lives, and beyond. The past two weeks, beginning with the takeover of Fannie and Freddie, mark a cornerstone in U.S. economic history. And it ain't over, though it's just possible that this marks the high-water mark.
Meanwhile, four points to consider on the day after:
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The Democrats ought to tread carefully in criticizing the action. While it's not yet clear, the nation's bacon just may have been saved by the Bush administration's economic brain trust. Irony aplenty, huh. When biographers scrape the barrel for a handful of positive things to say about Bush 43, the fact that he appointed Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson will be at the top of the list. Benanke's academic speciality was the Great Depression. He understood how bad it can get and what government can do to help prevent it. And Paulson is a creature of Wall Street who understands the toxic nature of AIG's obligations (a Superfund site if ever there was one) and, as a born trader, had the presence of mind to figure out an answer fast and do something. It may not be perfect, it may not even be legal, but he acted. Imagine that this had happened on John Snow's watch. No, don't go there.
Take a bow, Michael Lewitt. Imagine how many people in high places read his New York Times op-ed yesterday. Maybe even the president.
Foreign governments (read China & friends), mega-holders of U.S. agency debt, were big winners in the Fannie and Freddie conservatorship. They won again with the AIG decision. Who says W doesn't understand the global economy?
Barring Armageddon, which of course can never be ruled out (Sarah Palin's pastor would remind us it's right around the corner, thanks be to God, and you better get ready), that's it for significant intervention from Uncle Sam. Meaning that Alan Fishman, Washington Mutual's chairman of two weeks, better scatter all the magic dust he brought with him, because there's going to be no help short of FDIC. Remember, however, that Fishman, when asked what he could do about WAMU's problems, replied: "I have no idea. Probably nothing." Ah, well.









Comments:
Posted Wed, Sep 17, 2:11 p.m. inappropriate
Stroke of genius? Hyperbole (or sarcasm): It's not as if there were many options to the AIG bailout...exactly how does that qualify as genius?
Besides, any "solutions" to problems of one's own making should disqualify subsequent use of flattering adjectives - and touting them as accomplishments in memoirs or on the campaign trail.
Posted Thu, Sep 18, 9:36 a.m. inappropriate
I hope this was intended as sarcasm: This group on the FOMC are a bunch of morons. They made the same mistake Greenspan made in 2000 when they didn't break the backs of the global macro bears this time last year by lowering interest rates and rallying the market enough to cause significant pain for those who were short. If I was President, I would have had them in the Oval about 2 seconds after they didn't lower rates this week to give them the verbal beating of their lives. Astonishingly stupid.
The SEC was asleep at the switch. Congress continues to rob their accounts of money, so they couldn't hire the people necessary to make intelligent decisions on the horrifically complex derivative instruments that are at the root cause of this problem.* The dim bulbs at the SEC who insist short sellers are a regulator's best friend were allowed to actually create policy, resulting in a Reg. SHO that was worse than a joke, the removal of an uptick rule that protected our financial system since the last time short sellers decimated it in the 1920s, and actively taking the legs out from under anyone who questioned the idea that short selling wasn't as American as apple pie.
I'll almost agree with the Paulson comment, but he actually made the mess worse. They bailed out Bear, and told people they wouldn't allow institutions to fail. Then they let Merrill and Lehman fail. Then they said they would not help AIG, then they did. The number one role of a government regulator is to provide stability. He has done just the opposite.
At this point, it is not clera whether we will get to write our own history or whether whomever owns our country after this is over writes our history. Either way, I doubt very much if the role of the past four administrations will be much cheered. While much of the regulatory stupidity that was the final straw came during the latest Bush reign, the deregulation was accelerated during the Clinton years.
*Believing this mess was caused by the housing market is akin to believing we went into Iraq because of WMDs. It sounded plausible in the heat of the moment, but the facts are not there to back it up.
Posted Thu, Sep 18, 11:12 a.m. inappropriate
You know expectations have sunk too low: when performing the most basic functions of your job is considered a "stroke of genius".