Ups and downs: Good baseball, bad transit and other news
I've been in Arizona over most of the past month, recuperating from some unexpected surgery and, in between, catching some Mariners spring training. I've also had the benefit of distance in keeping up with both national and Seattle events. A quick roundup of impressions:
Griffey will be fine: Ken Griffey is coming back slowly from his knee surgery at the end of last season. But his timing is just a bit off at the plate and, in workouts, he is moving well in the outfield. In his first at-bat in an exhibition game last Monday, he sliced a drive to left field that was inches shy of a home run. (Handslaps followed in the Mariners dugout). Unless he incurs another injury, Griffey will get productive at-bats, at designated hitter, and play a number of games in left field as well. He also has given a morale lift to the team. Overall, the Mariners appear headed to a .500 season, a big improvement over 2008, with at least three or four slots still undecided on an eventual 11- or 12-man pitching staff.
Sound Transit: Readers know I regard Sound Transit as a rogue agency which has foisted a cost-inefficient regional light rail system on three-county voters who do not fully understand its future tax and transporation implications. The news that inferior steel had been used in the initial stages of light rail construction is deplorable but not a surprise. Nor is the recently projected Sound Transit financial shortfall a surprise. The 2008-approved regional light rail system was estimated, then, to cost about $23 billion — some $5 billion more than the final cost of the Boston Big Dig. The relevant ballot measure also left open Sound Transit's future taxing authority, if financial shortfalls developed. It is never too late to correct a mistake. State and local officials should be looking for a way to do so.
Financial/economic crisis: The so-called "retention bonuses" paid to AIG executives who had lost billions, and placed the company and taxayers in jeopardy, were deplorable. However, they are not an isolated phenomenon and, in fact, were mandated by the recent economic-stimulus package, at the request of the Obama Treasury. Day by day, investigative reporters, Congressional investigators, and financial analysts will keep coming up with similar outrages. Rep. John Lewis, for instance, last week announced that several major financial institutions had received federal bailout money after first certifying that their federal taxes had been paid — although they had not been paid. We will have to hold our noses and get past these disclosures. Fed Chair Ben Bernanke has been waging what until now has been a too lonely effort to keep the financial system viable. Sometime within the next week Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and White House economic czar Larry Summers should come up with their own comprehensive statement regarding bailout policy. It will be needed to maintain financial-market and public confidence over the weeks ahead.
The new P-I: A first impression is that the new online-only SeattlePI.com is pretty thin as compared to both the former Seattle Post-Intelligencer print and online editions. But the venture is barely underway and deserves some time to develop. I have little doubt that, a few months from now, it will find a formula for longer-term viability. The only question surrounds Hearst's willingness to give it time to develop that formula. Hearst, as others in its industry, is cutting back losers so as to save its winners. Let us hope it will be patient with this new Seattle venture. May it live long and prosper.
Comments:
Posted Sun, Mar 22, 11:29 a.m. inappropriate
I'm not sure what Ted Van Dyk means by writing, "The relevant ballot measure also left open Sound Transit's future taxing authority, if financial shortfalls developed. It is never too late to correct a mistake. State and local officials should be looking for a way to do so."
Does correcting the mistake mean ratchet Sound Transit's tax revenue upward or move it downward? I don't expect either to happen.
Here is my reading: Sound Transit's tax take doubles this spring as a result of its ballot box victory last November, from about one million dollars per day to two million. If that's not enough, the agency has complete authority to slow up its rail construction projects as needed, or cut back on the number of stations. We have already seen how that works in the first 13 years of Sound Transit's life, as light rail track and stations were moved from phase 1 to phase 2.
Bottom line, nobody needs to worry about Sound Transit's financial viability for the foreseeable future. As CEO Joni Earl recently told her peers in the March issue of Progressive Railroading magazine, Sound Transit is "really, really healthy."
An emerging public relations challenge for Sound Transit lies in offering nothing but years and years of railroad planning and construction after the thrill of the new Sea-Tac airport rail connection wears off in 2010. The next light rail opening is planned for six or seven years later. There may be some hope of accelerating the elevated light rail tracks into South King County below the Airport before then, but will that soothe the subway-hungry voters north of downtown Seattle who have been waiting for the train since 1996?
We can also expect Sound Transit to modify the contracts with its existing partners/vendors King County Metro, Pierce Transit, and Community Transit in Snohomish, so that they can provide customers some Regional Express Bus service improvements, which are dirt cheap and relatively quick to do compared to building subway tunnels and rails on a floating bridge. But the contract negotiations will likely be tough. Sound Transit's doubled tax stream has surely been noticed by our county bus agencies, all of which have current, recession-related revenue shortfall issues that could be soothed with more money per bus-operating-hour from Sound Transit. The existing service contracts worth hundreds of millions collectively are up for renegotiation later this year.
Sound Transit's plans to spend a small slice of its money on better express bus service over the next five years are now open for customer and taxpayer input at http://www.soundtransit.org/x1195.xml .
Posted Sun, Mar 22, 11:36 a.m. inappropriate
Off topic here, but a reminder that Ted Van Dyk remains an apologist for Michael Milken. Who's that? Read this. It's linked from www.twitter.com/joetrippi
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/26793903/the_big_takeover/
Posted Sun, Mar 22, 1:35 p.m. inappropriate
To clarify: I meant that Sound Transit has what amounts to open-ended taxing authority which, as a practical matter, will allow it to far exceed the originally anticipated $23 billion for a regional light rail system.
John Niles correctly points out that ST also can cancel promised stations arbitrarily, as it has done in its phase-one routing, and stretch out construction schedules. The first thing which should be revisited is ST's open-ended taxing authority so that some kind of discipline can be applied to ongoing costs.
Posted Sun, Mar 22, 4:17 p.m. inappropriate
No, Mr. Van Dyk, Sound Transit's taxing authority is NOT open-ended. Rather it is capped at the maximum rate approved by voters last November; 0.9 percent; 9 cents on a $10 taxable purchase. Any higher taxes would have to be approved first by the Legislature and then by the region's voters.
And exactly which light rail station was cancelled arbitrarily, during Phase 1, rather than for sound planning reasons? Details. Please. Or is this just more playing fast and loose with the facts?
(Say, whatever happened to those professional editors that were supposed to review Crosscut copy, before it was posted? You remember, those folks that were going to make this Web site more like real journalism?)
Posted Sun, Mar 22, 5:20 p.m. inappropriate
R: The taxing authority can be extended, at the rate approved by voters,
so long as the light rail system remains under construction. That could be a far longer period than that promised and result in a far larger overall pricetag. I don't know what you call "sound planning reasons"---the fact that the promised stations could not be built for the promised pricetag and therefore had to be abandoned?
This whole enterprise amounts to an outrageous bait-and-switch
operation benefiting contractors and sub-contractors, the ST bureacracy,
and the law firms, p.r. firms, consultants and others who benefit financially from it. It has been supported by public officials, who should know better, and sold to an electorate which does not realize bus transit service could carry far more people, to far more destinations,
at far less cost, in a far shorter time period than light rail will ever be able to do. Those are facts.
As Niles points out, above, it will be years before the system is built and carrying passengers. Bus transit could be expanded tomorrow. I presume you are among those on the receiving end of ST revenues. But most area citizens are not and are paying the price.
Posted Sun, Mar 22, 5:57 p.m. inappropriate
The supposed "facts" are in dispute, Van Dyk. King County Metro is burdened by a financial crisis that threatens service cuts, despite record ridership levels and repeated fare-increases. Further, Metro has NO solution to our liquid fuels predicament--now that's a fact. As agricultural production gets underway, and the price of oil rises, Sims mismanagement of Metro will become increasingly clear. While I happen to agree with you on ST, your support for bus transit has explicitly served your roads and highway agenda.
Posted Sun, Mar 22, 8:14 p.m. inappropriate
The facts are not in dispute. Light rail, on any basis, provides fewer benefits for far more money than bus transit. I have no "roads and highway agenda." My only concern is that the people who live here be
provided necessary transit on the most cost-efficient basis possible.
Posted Sun, Mar 22, 9:34 p.m. inappropriate
This may come as a shock to Mr. Van Dyk but the Sound Transit folks who erred in 1996, when they estimated the cost and schedule for the first phase of light rail, are NO LONGER IN CHARGE! They left in 2000-2001 and were replaced by the management team that put a new budget and schedule in place, and successfully held to them for over seven years now. In fact, they are preparing to turn back over $100m in unspent reserves.
Those new folks estimated the costs and schedule for the Phase Two plan just approved by voters, and I think their track record is pretty damned good.
You raise Bait and Switch???? What a laugher. That's what would happen if Sound Transit followed your advice and abandoned the rail projects that voters voted for and substituted more buses stuck in traffic.
One thing I've learned about the anti-rail folks, who say that buses can do it better and cheaper -- they don't ride transit! If they rode a commute bus to work every day, they might just have a different opinion of what buses can do. Maybe Mr. Van Dyk will tell us what bus route he commutes on every day. Or maybe his opinions are not burdened with personal experience.
Posted Sun, Mar 22, 11:36 p.m. inappropriate
dericjones: you weren't off topic at all. The source of Ted Van Dyk's animousity towards elected officials, zillionaires, and the corrupting influence of money and politics is based on his life story. In other words, Van Dyk finds corruption under every rock, because you could actually find it throughout his career. It was no coincidence that a large percentage of the people who brought us Prohibition (the Temperance Union) also happened to be alcoholics. Also, if you happened to read Chuck Colson's autobiography, he spells out what turned him into a born again Christian. Colson saw and participated in blatant political corruption working for Nixon. After doing some time in the slammer, Colson decided he needed to save everybody else's soul - because he saw the world falling for the same temptations of money and power.
Ever wonder why Van Dyk's commentaries are so shrill? (causing him to rely on disinformation to make his points)
Back to your comment: from what I can tell, Van Dyk is no longer paid to apologize for Mike Milken. If you have information to indicate otherwise, please let us know. Thanks for the link, though. I had no idea the guy who sunk AIG cut his teeth working for Milken. That was probably news to Ted Van Dyk, former CEO of the Milken Institute. Which was specifically set up to "correct the record" and make the American public disassociate junk bonds from Van Dyk's boss. See, like the AIG brass, Milken got to keep his illl-gotten gains. And as a political consultant used to soaking up corporate cash, Van Dyk was more than happy to take Milken's cash.
How pathetic that Van Dyk positions himself as an anti-corporate government watchdog. Here's what Van Dyk is really trying to say: "we need to protect taxpayers from people like me."
Posted Mon, Mar 23, 12:03 a.m. inappropriate
One more item for dericjones: if you enjoy researching Ted Van Dyk's book-worthy career, look up the chapter about a briefcase full of cash delivered to Nixon's people by Van Dyk'e people. See, a large dairy industry association bet the bank on Humphry's campaign...at the same time they were pursuing federal regulatory changes to boost their monopoly. Well, Van Dyk's guy lost, and a large pile of cash was required to make peace with Nixon once he took power. The results of this (real) case of corruption actually set the table for Watergate. The New York Times archives include a reference to Van Dyk's role in this mess. I don't like spending more than a couple minutes on Van Dyk's illustrious past, so maybe you want to grab the torch and run with this one.
Hey, I almost forgot to mention: Van Dyk got this latest post wrong. As usual. Van Dyk refers to the latest "deplorable" light rail scandal involving "inferior" steel. Like clockwork, Van Dyk can't get the basic facts straight, even when the issue isn't complex (when the subject matter is complex, he always finds himself up a creek sans paddle).
www.seattletransitblog.com has some good background on why the characterization of "inferior" steel is both false and misleading. In fact, both the PI and Times reports include information illustrating just how distorted Van Dyk's comments are. How ironic that Van Dyk was recently defending Sarah Freaking Palin from blogger disinformation campaigns. How poetic.
Posted Mon, Mar 23, 4:54 a.m. inappropriate
It is not a surprise that Sound Transit's legal counsel (still) is as responsible for the current financial crisis as AIG in their long time 'P.C.' domination of WAMU.
R- Sound Transit Stations cut, by my memory, were the First Hill/S.Broadway Station (a North Broadway Station was also cut, replaced by the current single location). A University Station in the University District was cut. In addition the Sounder Station in Ballard was removed.
My memory on the timing of these cuts is not exact, but it is my recollection that it occured during the scapegoating of former Executive Director under the guise of 'reform' (by those WAMU scammers). I thought Mr. White was a friend of yours, but then again, that's pretty consistent for you, Mr. ST Community relations specialist.
RIGHT?
Posted Mon, Mar 23, 7:13 a.m. inappropriate
Madison Ave: You are up to your usual smearing and personal attacks. They are pathetic. I never was involved in sending any briefcase full of cash to "Nixon's people" or to anyone else. Sheer fantasy. I served for two years as Exec. VP and COO of the Milken Institute, an economic think tank. My job involved supervising the policy research undertaken there by economists and generally running the place. I have over a lifetime devoted myself to serving the public interest, which often has involved challenging the specially interested. I have no misdeeds for which I must compensate.
The steel used in light rail construction was, in fact, inferior. It was Sound Transit's job to check to see if it met the standards specified.
It would be useful, Mad Ave, if you would use your real name and name your employer. Those you smear thus would know the identity of the person and organization behind the slanders.
Posted Mon, Mar 23, 8:59 a.m. inappropriate
Come again, Mr. Van Dyk?
Each and every thing I wrote is backed by historical fact. I don't just make things up out of thin air to suit my ideology. The only conjecture I've employed relates to my theory as to why you always lash out at business interests, politicians and the dollars which can corrupt the process. Maybe I'm wrong in my theory - but the historical record (your past as a corporate consultant / lobbyist) is unchanged.
In fact, I called out dericjones' misinformation (apparently not a personal attack) insinuating you still worked for Michael Milken. When he made that statement earlier in the thread, you ignored it.
Now, if you're trying to claim I am being paid to call out the not-so-pure aspects of your career - well, that is REAL conjecture. Because I'm not. My employer could care less about who you are, or what you write.
Posted Mon, Mar 23, 9:15 a.m. inappropriate
Also, if you feel as if you've been slandered, I would take it up with the New York Times. Maybe they are willing to remove that reference to the Dairy Producers cash. Or, you could pull up that article yourself, and correct the record here. I am perfectly willing to believe they should not have used your name in that article. I identify bad information on news websites all the time. If I have some time later, I will spend some time illustrating how you botched - and continue to botch - that steel story. Not that you care...
Posted Mon, Mar 23, 10:30 p.m. inappropriate
Douglas, my point about stations was that the two that were "cut" were cut for very specific and serious reasons, not "arbitrarily" as stated by Mr. Van Dyk. Rather than do his homework (easy to do, even from Arizona) and find out the real reasons, he's content to toss off pejoratives.
As I asked in an earlier post, where's the editors at Crosscut? Have you no standards at all for your writers? Have Crosscut editors gone the way of the print edition P-I???
Posted Thu, Mar 26, 5:54 p.m. inappropriate
R: Looking at a Sound Transit map from the late 1990s of the voter-approved version of Central Link, I see that four stations were eliminated for what you call "very specific and serious reasons" -- First Hill, Graham, Boeing Access Road, and South 144th. Glowing descriptions of the purpose for each were provided back then.
Again for serious reasons, a fifth station at the U of W was seriously relocated from Pacific Street to the edge of the campus at Husky Stadium, and two stations were seriously delayed from Sound Move phase 1 to ST phase 2 (funded by Prop 1).
All of the stations still in the plan are opening years later than planned.
That's the way it goes with Link light rail ... costs more than expected, takes longer, and delivers less.