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Seattle emerges, according to urban experts, in a tie with Washington D.C. as the top post-recession mecca for the young. Portland came in fourth in the Wall Street Journal survey. Third place went to New York, and fifth place to Austin.
It's easy to see why Seattle and Portland would score so well: diverse high-tech sectors, cultural life, access to nature, and strong university presences. Portland excels in nightlife, transit, quirky culture, and "West Coast hipness." Portland lacks jobs, however, an aspect that D.C. does well at, especially as a regulation economy grows. Besides, "Barack Obama is America's coolest boss," says Richard Florida, the "Creative Economy" guru and one of the experts in the survey. Seattle has cool companies to work for, ones that play on a big global stage.
Previous magnets are losing their draw: Naples, Florida (sagging economy), Las Vegas (real estate bust), Charlotte, N.C. (banking suffering in the meltdown), and Los Angeles (car culture is a turnoff).
If you go back about 25 years, Seattle was a classic city of the last move. It was the kind of place that was too sleepy and too much a company town to be a good starter-city, right after college. Folks who moved here were ready to settle down, have kids, find good schools, join the Municipal League, and generally put down roots. They may have started out in a big, but too expensive place like LA or New York, or one hard to break into like Boston. They may have then tried a small town for a change, finding it too confining. Seattle would be "just right."
The psychology of people making, in their minds at least, a "last move" is a very civic and engaged state of mind, since people of this mindset expect to stay for decades. Seattle politics through the 70s and 80s very much reflected this, and the city was a national leader in such things as historic preservation, humane programs for the poor, creating arts organizations, and environmental causes. Quite different is the population of the first move: younger, more ambitious, more about nightlife than neighborhood institutions, not ready to care a lot about schools, probably going to move to another city soon. All kinds of diversity, energy, and cosmopolitanism also come with the influx.
Another mental shift the region needs to make is to realize that we are much less a city where people stay a long time. Instead, we are one of the leading cities of newcomers and transient residents. According to the 2000 Census, 31 percent of Seattleites have lived in the city for five years or less. Only Austin scores higher in the newcomer percentage. Seattle gets 'em while their young and restless, rather than seasoned and ready to settle down.
The predicted "Manhattanization" of Seattle may not have taken place in skyscraper count, but it has happened in our souls.
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Comments:
Posted Wed, Sep 30, 2:24 p.m. Inappropriate
Mr. Brewster, your assumption that this forecast (not survey) suggest Seattle is becoming "Manhattanized" doesn't seem correct. First of all, Manhattan (but now arguably more Brooklyn) is characterized as a place of young people with little direction hoping to realize their dreams in areas like film, music, or arts. Eventually when the majority of them do not make it, they are priced out of the area and move somewhere with a more stable, easier job.
The article specifically cites Seattle's innovative job market as a draw and seems to be pointing to older, more educated 20-somethings who are looking to settle down with a stable job and begin a family. In fact, the example is a 26 year old, married woman who recently landed a good job at Microsoft. Doesn't sound to me like somebody moving away soon.
Also, saying that younger people don't help better the city is condescending and wrong. In my experience it is exactly these younger people who have the vision and energy to try and make a better Seattle and not try to keep things in the stagnate status quo.
Posted Wed, Sep 30, 4 p.m. Inappropriate
Actually, I would say the fear of manhattanization is much worse for Portland than Seattle. Telling people that your "funemployed", a common phrase down there, gets pretty old after about 28.
Posted Wed, Sep 30, 4:25 p.m. Inappropriate
It will be interesting to see if you're right, David. My first job was in a small town, but it paid poorly (and no health care). I had to come to the city to find something that would pay the college loans, and it turns out we like Seattle enough to stay 6 years already!
Posted Thu, Oct 1, 6:42 a.m. Inappropriate
Josh Mahar is a young person in a change-the-world mode. I'm an old hippie still in a change the world mode, but now on the far side of that "over 30" boundary. I'd like to ask the youngsters not to discount us oldsters, even though I know it won't do any good. Seattle is diverse in age groups as well as other demographics, and you don't have to be young to still be trying to make things better. We might have a different way of trying, but we're still here working.
Posted Fri, Oct 2, 6:13 a.m. Inappropriate
I spent the first 18 years of my career in Seattle, and loved it, but returned to the New York area ten years ago simply because Seattle does not pay its professionals competitively. I've kept my house in Seattle, and will move back, but not until my working years are over. It was fun while it lasted, but the equation doesn't work for those of us with ambitions.
Posted Sat, Oct 3, 5:20 p.m. Inappropriate
I think you have it exactly backwards.
I lived in Belltown 25 years ago, and Seattle was full of young people from all over the country. They were here because it was cheap, and relatively unstructured. Cheap storefronts, dive bars you could make your own, lots of galleries and performance spaces. Rents now are crazy, most old buildings have been replaced by 5 story cardboard condo towers with cupcake shops downstairs...
Smart up and comers from that time have almost all left Seattle- for places like NYC, where former Seattleites were art directors for major magazines, columnists and photographers for magazines, books, and newspapers. Or Boston, where a former Seattleite now runs the most interesting art museum there, far more adventurous and well regarded than SAM. Others moved to Chicago, for theater or the arts or teaching. Or LA, to write scripts for movies, to run recording studios, to play in bands.
The brain drain of my generation was almost complete from Seattle.
Nowadays, the cohort of my 19 year old son are all about LEAVING Seattle- its expensive, stuffy, and not much is going on. I dont see an influx of young, smart, motivated people coming to town- instead, they are going to Pittsburgh, or New Orleans.
This article, which I read in the WSJ, is only oriented towards MBA's looking to cash in on Microsoft Millions- and, unfortunately, those chances were ten, or fifteen years ago. Those people are not representative of the creative class, which actually starts businesses, or theaters, or dance troupes, or art galleries, or rehabs neighborhoods- those people are followers, drones, employees. And now, NO city is a good place for them- there are not jobs here, and there are not jobs in Portland, or even in NYC.
Kids today are going to Berlin, to Milwaukee, to Houston, to LA (always- say what you will about it- but there is always work there) to Buenos Aires and Beijing, and, yes, Portland-but Seattle?
Not hardly.