Help us predict the 2007 election results
We're trying an experiment to see if the wisdom of the crowd can be tapped to predict the outcome of a few measures and races in the Nov. 6 election.
This is not an opinion poll. It's a predictive survey. We want to know what you think the results will actually be, not what you'd like them to be. Imagine you're betting money on the outcomes. You can return and modify your answers as time passes, if you think the likely outcome has changed in a given race.
Here's the survey. Here's a current results summary. We'll also post an occasional update of the trends here on Crosscut.
These are the issues and candidates we're asking about:
- Proposition 1, the Puget Sound-area roads-and-transit measure.
- Initiative 960, the statewide measure that would place certain requirements on proposed tax increases.
- Resolution 4204, which would require a majority vote instead of a super majority for school-levy passage in Washington.
- The race for King County prosecutor.
- Two Seattle City Council races.
We're new at this, so please add a comment here if you have thoughts about methodology or technical issues. We think this tool allows one participant per IP address, which could be a problem if you're voting from a big workplace. If that proves to be a problem, we can change that.
Comments:
Posted Wed, Oct 31, 9:45 a.m. inappropriate
If It's a Horse Race, Why Not Just Go to the Track?: Why do we Americans so love turning our political process into a horse race? Isn't polling itself a big part of why our political process has so degenerated? Politicians no longer really care what's right or wrong, but rather what's popular, or at least, what's not too unpopular, or keeping up with the latest trend, according to the polls.
With Prop 1, our elected leaders, who should be deciding things like how to allocate resources to transportation, are too afraid of polls and initiatives to accept responsibility. So, a measure is prepared for voters, which is designed not for an optimal solution of the transportation problems we face, but to somehow hammer together a momentary majority to vote through a measure that the drafters think -- can make it through a referendum. But, neither the New York subways nor the Interstate Highway system were done by popular referendum. Great public works just aren't done this way. They are done by political leaders with the vision and nerve to accomplish something. Let's see, if the vote is 52 to 48 one way or the other on Prop. 1, this is a meaningful measure of what? That the public is sharply divided on this issue? Certainly, almost no voter has the expertise or knowledge to really evaluate the effectiveness or cost-benefit of the proposed plan. It's so complicated that it's hard to even discuss fairly. Do we really elect political leaders to ask us what to do on basic issues like transportation policy? Whichever way the vote goes, this is not a sensible way to solve our problems, and demonstrates mostly that our political process has broken down pretty badly.
So, my hope is your poll is embarrassingly inaccurate. We don't need more handicapping of political horse races. What we need is more discussion of the issues and the merits of the candidates down to the wire. Crosscut seems to me a good contribution to the discussion, less edited and conventional than the dailies, more politically astute than our current weeklies. So we need yet another poll on how the election is likely to turn out? It would be easy to improve your polling technique but I suggest you don't.
Posted Wed, Oct 31, 4:39 p.m. inappropriate
Unscientific, but: I conducted a small poll for the neighborhood group Vision Seattle on the Seattle Commons proposal. The responses to that were well under 100, but they were a wide cross-section of educated and involved citizens - the results were contrary to popular wisdom - but in the end these particular respondents ended up prevailing.
A survey of this sort will hopefully be a barometer not of where the populace now stands, but of where it is going. Crosscut's readership may well be such a group, and if so, it will gain influence, at least with forward looking, responsive, and intelligent, leaders.
Hopefully that success will not destroy it.
As with any growth, quality matters and it is best built slowly.
-Douglas Tooley
Motley Blog
Posted Wed, Oct 31, 4:47 p.m. inappropriate
After Survey Comments: Requiring people to sign in prior to participating in a survey would be better than limiting by IP address. You might have a problem with folks creating fake accounts in order to stuff the ballot box, but that could also be dealt with, if necessary.
Also, the survey closed down my window instead of returning me to Crosscut.