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Mossback »

Apr 18, 2007 1:00 PM | last updated Apr 20, 2007 11:14 PM
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How dense can they be? Pretty dense, apparently

The response to Mossback's story about density has been rabid, but some blogger critics are way off base.

By Knute Berger

A good friend, a liberal green, dropped me a line saying "By gawd Crosscut's making the chips fly! I love it." He was referring to my post on Monday, April 16, questioning Seattle's devotion to density as an unquestionable civic good (or is it God?).

I think he only partly agrees with me, which is fine. Hell, even I don't always agree with me. But he loves a good fight.

Response to the story has been rabid. Crosscut readers are posting thoughtful comments, pro and con. I urge you to read them if you haven't already.

Lots of bloggers are weighing in too, and some are way off base, either wrong in their assertions, or misrepresenting what I said. Let's take a look:

Will at Horse's Ass posted an attack on my piece under the heading of "Condos Are Evil." First off, Will, no, I don't think condos are evil. What I do think is that it's bad policy to encourage high-rise skysprawl for the rich, especially when we get so little in the way of "affordable" housing for the poor in return, and virtually nothing for the middle class. I consider the raising of height limits downtown to be misguided. I also question condo developments that destroy relatively low-cost existing rental housing and replace it with expensive condos or townhouses, or, even worse, single family megahouses. We lose daylight, we lose green, we lose scale, we lose history, and, worst, we lose cheap housing.

In response to my assertion that there is a political alliance of greens, labor, and progressives to promote policies that have hurt the little guy, Will says:

What an unbelievable load of shit. Labor, enviros, and progressives all want more growth inside urban boundaries for different reasons. Union guys who swing hammers get construction work. Enviromentalists like the fact that denser urban development is energy effecient and allows people to walk to work. Progressives like it because, well — it’s cool. And we don’t want to move to Auburn.

They may want it for different reasons, but the effect of the green/labor/liberal alliance is troubling. But thank you, Will, for being honest enough to validate my suspicion that progressives will put "coolness" above rationality when it comes to density — it's a snobbery that asserts that the urbs are infinitely superior to the burbs. Will says "we don't want to move to Auburn," but that's my point. Maybe Will has a choice, but poor and working class families don't. They're flooding into "uncool" south King County because they can't afford to live in "cool" Seattle anymore. Can we please question the price of coolness?

Will continues:

Truth is, Skip’s no-growth heros (Brian Derdowski being one of them) were never for zero-growth. They just believed growth should pay for itself. And, growth should be funneled away from undeveloped areas and into cities. You know, like Seattle. So Skip’s anti-growth beliefs are really just a part of the problem.

After all, if a young couple can’t buy a townhome in Seattle, they’ll buy a house in Sammamish.

Okay, this begs for correction and background. Will is right, I have long admired Brian Derdowski, the onetime Republican King County Council member who valiantly fought sprawl in east King County until he was defeated by the Eastside's pro-development crowd, guys like Dave Irons and Dino Rossi, two of Horse's Ass's favorite punching bags.

Derdowksi, now a Democrat, did believe in concurrency — that developers should be required to fund infrastructure improvements instead of foisting these costs onto future taxpayers. That, of course, went out the window during the '90s boom, in part sabotaged by King County government itself when the county rigged computer programs to downplay traffic impacts and allow more development than concurrency would permit.

I don't think I ever said Brian supported "zero growth," or that I support "zero growth." That is unrealistic. But like Brian, I am a slow-growther — I believe in trying to control the market when it's going to overwhelm us. I believe in sustainable growth — slower and smaller-scale when possible. I can also tell you that Derdowksi is a longtime neighborhood advocate; unlimited growth in Seattle would not be his dream outcome.

I must also point out that the politics of growth — Derdowski's politics — were complicated and populist. He believed rural property owners should be able to develop in small, low-impact ways on their land, which gained him support among the property rights crowd; and he believed that the big developers ought to be subject to restrictions. I agree. He did support development in "urban" zones, but he also fought some development in those zones because, in some cases, the boundaries were drawn in the wrong places. The Sammamish Plateau is a case in point: It was designated as an "urban" area when it was largely rural and suburban. What's happened in that "urban" area has been appalling.

One last point: People tend to follow jobs. Suburban sprawl in this country accelerated when employers moved out of cities and into the suburbs. As much as I don't like what happened to Sammamish, it makes a certain sense for people to live there now because many of those folks will be closer to their workplaces, like Microsoft, than they might be in Seattle. In other words, as long as big employers have suburban campuses, it just might be greener to live in places like Sammamish.

That might make much better policy than spending billions of dollars building a bigger, badder, six-lane Highway 520 floating bridge that is essentially just a fat, publicly funded driveway for Bill Gates' worker bees. But I digress.

On to Sightline, where Clark Williams-Derry writes that we are helpless against "the market":

You see, like it or not, the demand for housing in Seattle is rising, because of demographic trends (rising regional population) and macro-economic forces (increasing wealth and income, particularly at upper rungs of the socio-economic ladder) that Seattle policymakers have essentially no control over.

And over at Metroblogging, Ryan weighs in:

Unfortunately, [Mossback's] chosen to rail against a red herring. Seattle’s economic situation hasn’t developed in a vacuum no matter how isolated we think we are up here. The middle class is shrinking across the country and the poor are being driven out of, well, everywhere. The rising tide is not lifting all boats and it's myopic, to say the least, to claim that localized urban density is to blame.

Ryan makes a good point: Seattle is not living in isolation. I know that and have written about how the middle class is under duress nationally. (See "Just Right People.") I know we don't exist in a vacuum. Nor would I want to turn Seattle into the Bottle-City of Kandor.

But neither do we have to assume the position when it comes to "the market." I mean, can't we put up a fight if it's in our self-interest? If it advances some sense of economic justice? Environmental responsibility?

I am not a free-marketer or a free-trader. I believe in tariffs, in local control, I believe in the right of people to shape their communities by setting priorities that aren't solely determined by market forces. I believe that corporations shouldn't have all the rights of individuals and all the rights of human beings. I believe we sometimes have to push the market back with laws, incentives, and penalties. Let me cite a quote, which I did once before in a Seattle Weekly column about how growth is the new "meth." It comes from The Revolt of the Elites and the Betrayal of Democracy by Christopher Lasch:

... Individuals cannot learn to speak for themselves at all, much less come to an intelligent understanding of their happiness and wellbeing, in a world in which there are no values except those of the market. ... The market tends to universalize itself. It does not easily coexist with institutions that operate according to principles that are antithetical to itself: schools and universities, newspapers and magazines, charities, families. Sooner or later the market tends to absorb them all. It puts an almost irresistible pressure on every activity to justify itself in the only terms it recognizes: to become a business proposition, to pay its own way, to show black ink on the bottom line. It turns news into entertainment, scholarship into professional careerism, social work into the scientific management of poverty. Inexorably it remodels every institution in its own image.

When I hear people surrendering to "the market," I wonder, is this the town that rioted during WTO in 1999? Is this the town that stood up to globalization? I expect it of the business lobby, but when did Seattle enviros go all Thomas Friedman?

I do question whether our consumerist economy's obsession with more and more and more will make us either happy or bring about the civic utopia that the dense people envision.

Of course, taking on the market isn't easy. And I don't have all the answers, maybe not any of them. I have put forward a few suggestions for how it could be done. I've said I like the idea of the New Homestead Act which would create incentives for people to locate in depopulated rural areas — this is no weirder than the homestead laws and New Deal policies that steered growth and adjusted the market to benefit the country. I've also suggested that there are alternative ways to increasing density, as has been done in Europe. Providing free daycare in cities that have lost families is one idea. I'd love to hear other ideas.

And no, Clark Williams-Derry, I am not yearning for another Boeing bust, an earthquake, or a "miserable" quality of life. Nor, as Erica C. Barnett speculates over on Slog, do I dream of "an environment so ravaged by cars and an economy so pre-modern that people will just stop moving here ... an ugly, polluted, underpopulated small town where only Mossbacks want to live."

Uffda. I just don't have the energy to refute that. I mean, reading Erica on Slog is like being waterboarded.

Okay, Erica, you caught me. I do want to destroy Seattle with pollution, crime, and the pox.

Curses, Mossback the supervillian is foiled again.

  • Knute Berger is Mossback, Crosscut's chief Northwest native. He also writes the monthly Gray Matters column for Seattle magazine and is a weekly Friday guest on Weekday on KUOW-FM (94.9). You can e-mail him at mossback@crosscut.com.
Comments
North Dakota Awaits Mossback
Report a violationPosted by: edmcg on Apr 18, 2007 1:26 PM
I think the concept of constraining supply by encouraging people to move to North Dakota is crazy. People are bidding up Seattle real estate because their preference is to live here. If Mossback wants to move there, and do something to make housing more affordable here, I suggest he sells his property at a below market price.

Encouraging people to move to North Dakota might only attract the lowest earners and hence make the remaining population here even less diverse.
Your plan
Report a violationPosted by: Matt on Apr 18, 2007 1:27 PM
Editor's Pick Though you talk about having a plan, reading carefuly over your article this is all I can find: "create incentives for people to locate in depopulated rural areas". Great, sounds good. Where?

The truth is that prices have increased throughtout the area, because the population has increased throughout the area. You claim that if we build up we risk sending the loweer-waged out of our city. I would disagree, and claim that increased interest in moving to Seattle does this - and will continue to do this if we stop even a single condo from being built. Actually, your scenario is worse. It's not just Seattle where housing prices have increased, but all of the surrounding areas. Building out sends the lower-waged out further. Past Bellevue, beyond Kirkland, keep going through Bothell... maybe there are a few affordable places past that.
Destroy Seattle, in order to save it?
Report a violationPosted by: newSeattle on Apr 18, 2007 2:07 PM
"I do want to destroy Seattle with pollution, crime, and the pox."

Well, don't you?

"Seattle needs to reduce its appeal if it is to recover its "livability." That's why we should either retrofit or rebuild the viaduct. Not only are these options cheaper and more practical, but keeping an ugly wall of traffic between downtown and Elliott Bay will put a dent in upscale growth." -- Knute Berger, seattleweekly.com/2006-07-26/news/daring-to-be-not-great.php

Sounds a lot like destruction to me.
laissez-faire
Report a violationPosted by: patricia stambor on Apr 18, 2007 2:21 PM
Knute -
Aren't we a little defensive?

"I am not a free-marketer or free-trader, I believe in tariffs, in local control..."
Did you have to find the biggest condo development to write around to tell us you don't like capitalism?

And when you decide to set an example and move to North Dakota (or Denmark) are you going to take less than market value for your home (to preserve the neighborhood), or are you going stick around and lobby city council to pony up with another levy or bond?

Your editor should have restrained you on this one. Clark Williams-Derry deserved the headlines for at least a day. patricia stambor
No suggestions, no plan, over-simplification of the problem. Sigh.
Report a violationPosted by: kayvaan on Apr 18, 2007 2:40 PM
Editor's Pick I can sympathize with your angst. But you're completely over-simplifying the problem and in COMPLETE denial about unstoppable forces.

You conflate urban density with both consumerism and expensive housing.

Density does not automatically equate either to consumerism or expensive housing.

Part of the problem is an asset (housing) bubble.
Part of the problem is wage gap.
Part of the problem is regional shifts (people like the NW region and the economy).
Part of the problem is legacy urban planning:
- Corporate parks far from urban centers
- Bedroom communities with no amenities within walking distance and no work opportunities within
- Homogeneous zoning instead of mixed zoning

What would you do with all the influx of people? Because you can't stop it. Would you build up or out? There is no other choice. It's probably possible to do both intelligently. People who want to live and work in the BIG city live in high-density areas or in very expensive single-family homes. People who don't can live in smaller urban areas. But those urban areas NEED WORK and a decent economy close by and mixed development with amenties so they don't have to drive to the box stores. Otherwise, all the inhabitants are driving to the BIG city or to the corporate parks from their bedroom communities.

Bottom line - people want to live here. You cannot stop the market. Best you can do is try to plan intelligently.

What's your plan?
Yes, I know you don't believe condos are evil. I was being ironical.
Report a violationPosted by: Will of Horse's Ass on Apr 18, 2007 2:49 PM
Editor's Pick I do think is that it's bad policy to encourage high-rise skysprawl for the rich, especially when we get so little in the way of "affordable" housing for the poor in return, and virtually nothing for the middle class.

I have similar concerns. As a person in my 20's just starting out, I live in an affordable building in Belltown. It was renovated with funds from the rich developers. It's run by HRG. (www.hrg.org) My neighbors are low level office types, bus drivers, taxi drivers, restaurant workers, folks on disability, and more. I want Belltown, my neighborhood, to attract lots of different kinds of people. While much of the growth is more "high-end" in price, some of it isn't. Hopefully the free-market is starting to prove to developers that they can't focus solely on luxury units.

I don't know what your problem is with me saying Seattle is cool (and that Auburn is not cool). I know young people from the hinterlands (like Auburn!) who are flooding into the city. They want the urban vibe, the close-in neighborhoods, the pubs and dive bars and fisherman's terminals and Pike Place Markets. It's true that couples often leave the city to have kids, but that's a matter of taste more than some sort of liberal fascist conspiracy. Christ, Skip, that's what YOU did, right?

Unfortunately I missed your appearence at Drinking Liberally. But Joel Connelly is a regular. Joel's not as far out as you are on this stuff. He told me last night at DL that he's most interested in protecting the things about Seattle that are iconic and historic. I couldn't agree more. After all, people want to move to Seattle BECAUSE of the Pike Place Market, Fisherman's Terminal, Pioneer Square, old pubs, interesting food, historic parks.

Did you know that Warren Magnuson moved to Seattle from North Dakota as a young man? His favorite boozin' spot, Vito's on First Hill, used to be an upscale-ish steak joint. These days, it's very popular among the young people as a place to drink Lemondrops and dance to techno. Moral of the story: while Maggie wouldn't have liked the change ("What the hell is that racket?!"), the old places in the city are enjoyed by the new generations of young folks who move to town.

And they ain't going back to North Dakota.

(ps: Unlike David Goldstein, Sandeep Kaushik, Dan Savage, or Erica C. Barnett, I'm 100% WA born and raised. So don't try and tell me to "go back to ****")
RE: Yes, I know you don't believe condos are evil. I was being ironical.
Report a violationPosted by: ChrisInSeattle on Apr 23, 2007 12:37 PM
I agree--this whole discussion seems entirely focused on "well, if we just stick our heads in the sand, growth won't happen so we don't need to worry about density and things will workout. Our dock workers and school teachers will be able to somehow afford the $750k 2 bedroom 1 bath homes that are left."

The Californians are coming. They can't be stopped. I'm one of them, so I know. Where are we going to put them all Knute? I am tired of everyone equating all "condo-dwellers" as being latte swilling, Mercedes driving, $150k/year folks that are ruining what's great about Seattle. It's being used as a scare tactic and it drives me crazy. Condos are the only affordable houses in Seattle for middle-income buyers. Period. (the Times has done several articles on this)

We complain that the single-family bungalow in Ballard gets knocked down in favor of three town homes. No one mentions that the bungalow on its own costs $600k, where the town houses cost $300k. It's even a better deal with condos--they actually CREATE affordable opportunities for Seattle's much heralded "middle-class."

I live in a modest one bedroom condo in the less than fashionable North Beacon Hill neighborhood. I work 40 (and sometimes 60) hours a week to pay my mortgage, make my car payment, save for retirement, and go on a vacation once or twice a year. In my mid 20s, I chose a tiny condo as my first home so I could stay in the city I work in and enjoy urban life and not clog the roads with another commuter coming from home with a yard in Puyallup.

I felt like I was doing good, helping the environment, living in density, being part of my community. Now I am made to feel that I am evil-elitist (my condo building is even a conversion--gasp!), density will make us like San Jose (still confused about how how I am supposed to be able to afford a home in the city without it), and Seattle should be more "workaday" and less like me (does a master's degree make me "hyper-educated" or can I slide in under the radar?).

Sheesh. I don't know what I am supposed to think anymore. Am I a do-gooder or the anti-christ? Maybe Seattle isn't for me--San Francisco anyone?
5-1 = 4
Report a violationPosted by: mhays on Apr 18, 2007 3:35 PM
Basically Mossback believes that a household forced to move due to redevelopment is a net addition to sprawl, while the five households that replace them simply wouldn't have existed if it hadn't been for the development. Well, the five would exist.

That one household doesn't have to move to Auburn. How about an apartment? Two kids? Get a two-bedroom unit, and have the kids share the bedroom, as my family did until I was 7. This isn't ideal by my standards either, but it's a fair tradeoff for a great location and avoids the family-sapping commute. For singles, how about getting a roommate, as I did until I was 24 or so? (Better yet, ditch the car -- think of it like $100,000 more in home-buying power.)

PS, I'm another local. Born at Swedish. Fourth generation or thereabouts.

Disclosure: As I've said before, I work for a general contractor, though we don't build the sorts of projects being discussed here (downtown on the other hand...).
Kent Kammerer weighs in
Report a violationPosted by: Chuck Taylor on Apr 18, 2007 5:09 PM
Editor's Pick Kent Kammerer of the Seattle Neighborhood Coalition sent us some comments for posting. -CT

---BEGIN FORWARD---

Evidently those who believe density will cure everything from high housing costs to herpes have been spending too much of their time getting their information from the back of cereal boxes or listening to the slogans of real estate agents, local developers or the mayor. What they forget is a phrase Dolly Pardon credits to her father when describing her more than ample development. His observation: "You can't pack 10 lb. of mud in a 5 lb. sack: There are parallels between country humor and densifying cities. Seattle is the 5 lb. sack. It's only common sense as one writer puts it.

The problem is we hang on to a theory conceived in a different era applied to different geography and a very different economy. Somehow we fail to acknowledge the most common knowledge about the behavior of living things. When any habitat, whether for man or beast, is overused it can no longer support living creatures without serious damage to livability and sustainability.

The reality is when we go beyond certain thresholds the quality of life diminishes incrementally. It was, in fact, environmentalists and "greens" who backed the Growth Management Act in the early nineties. The entire act was based on the concept of CONCURRENCY. It argued that to maintain a high quality of life one must insure that parks, open space, transportation, air and water quality, roads, sewage disposal and affordability be in place or concurrent with new development . We adopted the GMA, but have almost totally failed to deliver the concurrency in Seattle. Worse Seattle failed even more in not providing the architectural designs and amenities that make denser living more than future tenements.

Now we have those who believe sprawl, affordable housing, and the good life can be achieved by building higher and denser without the concurrency or the good architectural designs the new urbanists touted. Seattle has forsaken the development fees used by other cities that provide concurrency and as a result the encroaching density diminishes the quality of life and has tripled the cost of housing in two decades. The mayor says he won't build parks in dense areas because developers won't pay for them. Bull Shit. It's the law!

Density is the most expensive housing alternative and its cost is having the exact opposite effect on sprawl. Middle income people, aside from not wanting to be crowded into smaller spaces, are seeking affordable housing schools and a place to store their toys farther away from urban centers. The fact that they have to drive to affordable housing certainly doesn't help in the reduction of greenhouse gasses. Sadly the people who preach density and chant the density slogans are adding to poor air quality and greenhouse gasses, not making it better.

Whether we choose to accept reality or not, there are limits to growth if we choose to maintain reasonable quality of life standards. If an elevator is full and more people can't be crammed in, we wait for the next. If we go to a theater and there are no more seats we accept that it's full. We accept the notion of capacity everywhere except in cities. There is a popular saying that you can't control growth. Nonsense. It happens naturally all the time. If the place is full we look for a place that isn't. It's the same when people look for jobs. If none exist most folks expand their search. Again common sense! Every entrepreneur in the world bases their success on the simple premise that if they build it, people will come. We pour gasoline on the fire by adding density.

---END FORWARD---
Kent - how can a city be FULL?
Report a violationPosted by: kayvaan on Apr 18, 2007 7:14 PM
Nonsense. A city is not an elevator. That is an impossibly naive example.

1. You cannot stop people from considering this region attractive for their own reasons. You cannot WISH them away.

2. You cannot impose price controls.

Ergo - prices will go up unless you build enough housing or until people stop finding the region attractive.

That hasn't happened yet.

Ergo - prices go up unless you build enough housing.
Neighborhood coalition?
Report a violationPosted by: mhays on Apr 18, 2007 5:36 PM
Kent, that's poetic but very wrong on some basic points.

Density is less affordable?! Actually density makes housing cheaper. Would you rather use $200,000 of land for one house, or make it $50,000 for each of four houses? For townhouses vs. single family, additional factors include going vertical rather than horizontal (+), sharing walls (-), less sitework (-), and sharing design and permitting costs (-). Try building a single house on one of these townhouse sites and see what happens. (To say nothing of the price explosions you get when demand outstrips supply, like in San Francisco!)

Air pollution!? Even if everyone still drives, density means proximity, and many people will drive shorter distances. Of course, density generally means more people can walk or use transit.

I agree that we need more parks. We should pass another citywide bond issue, and we just implemented fees on high-rises.
you had me at waterboarding.
Report a violationPosted by: cwesley on Apr 18, 2007 5:53 PM
I just have to say, I am really glad to have found crosscut and wish it the best, however you get bumped to the top of my daily feeds with this one: I mean, reading Erica on Slog is like being waterboarded. Seriously, I felt like I was the only one. I do favor density however I like the distinction you make between unregulated growth and sustainable growth. One thing you might want to look into is The Stranger's coverage of South Lake Union. They actually argued against development for many of the same reasons as you (loss of low-income housing, etc.) I really enjoy your perspective and look forward to reading more!
Waterboarding
Report a violationPosted by: Sean on Apr 18, 2007 10:02 PM
Oh, I'm smiling ear to ear right now.
Another Waterboarder
Report a violationPosted by: Jackieo on Apr 19, 2007 7:40 AM
She's Lynndie England and you're the Sunni leader. You see her scrunch her mean little face and ball her tiny white fist while, with the other boney hand, she begins to peck away at you: "If the alternative is sprawl on the Sammamish Plateau (and in Skip’s no-growth Seattle utopia, that would be the only alternative), you’re goddamn right I want to see some 'skinny towers' in Seattle. And yeah, we fucked up on light rail, way back in the `good old day'..." Then she takes a foul breath, tightens the rope around your balls, and diarrheates further, "Hell, I’ve never had to pay more than $850 a month, and I have a pretty nice market-rate apartment. But I’m guessing Skip hasn’t actually looked for cheap housing in a decade or two." She smiles and fondles her whip.
Face it, Private Barnett's just not going to forgive the atrocity of you dispatching her to the Strangler.
Channelling Rudy
Report a violationPosted by: Ex-Seattleite on Apr 19, 2007 8:19 AM
When somebody like Mossback starts echoing Rudy Guiliani ("Even I don't always agree with me."), shivers run down my back.
Housing supply/demand myths: More doesn't always equal affordable
Report a violationPosted by: Geof Logan on Apr 19, 2007 12:25 PM
Contrary to popular belief, more housing doesn't necessarily equal lower prices. Nor do lower prices bring affordability, for anyone other than rich retirees and DINKS with dual, six figure incomes.

The housing supply/demand equation is far more sophisticated and complex than most understand (But the developer lobby sure does).

Increasing housing stock can and does increase overall housing costs in a given n'hood and even city wide, and on a generational time scale. It’s happening here, and is not news to anyone who’s actually paid attention rather than mindlessly mouthing mis-used economic platitudes.

When, in a favorable demand market - fueled by easy money, low interest rates and sub prime loans - the City upzones n'hoods to mulitfamily, the result is often a dramatic increase in the value of land occupied by single family homes and small apt. buildings.

The land no longer offers suitable return for development limited to one unit per lot. The ensuing increase in density results in multi family housing built at "market rates", at the highest price the market will bear.

I.E., 600K townhomes and condos. Developers build at the highest return on investment: They're in business to make money, not altruism. That means building what they can sell at the highest price possible.

Consequently, not only is the "new" housing among the most expensive, but it escalates the value of surrounding housing, and the land on which said housing is situated, promoting tear downs of affordable homes and condo conversions, creating even more, higher priced and less affordable housing.

Repeat a few hundred or thousand times and watch housing prices escalate and your city lose affordability. That’s how you make a house in my Fremont ‘hood worth 300K three years ago into 4 600K townhomes on the same lot today.

Along with a whole lot more cars, often two per townhome, usually SUV’s.

(So who’s causing the car choking pollution?)

Sure, eventually, when the economy cools and overbuilding occurs, prices level off or decline, perhaps by 10 or even 20 per cent. Too late: By now the entire floor of housing prices has been raised to a level excluding more people.

Please explain to me how a 6 or 700,000 dollar townhome knocked down 10 or 20 per cent constitutes "affordable".

You think they're all going to suddenly revert to 300K again in the next recession?

While you’re at it, please show me any housing in Seattle that’s been made more affordable due to densification, without government housing assistance.

Another myth: Market forces are destiny (and density?).

Markets can and are mitigated by public policy, and work with intelligent application. Not a Seattle trait, unfortunately. Certainly not among many of Seattle’s so called “greens”.

Example: Instead of rezoning the whole city to one big MF zone - as density cultists seem to crave – impose measured, conservative and well thought out MF zoning in increments, and in appropriate areas, that allows gradual increases in density without creating a "land rush" profit opportunity for developers. This actually helps preserve affordable housing by mitigating economic pressures that otherwise rapidly drive up prices.

Pressures that benefit developers operating under a phony "green" patina. The only thing "green" about Seattle style densification is the color of money, in the industry's bank accounts and electeds' campaign treasuries.

Seattle density and land use policy is nothing more that a developer’s welfare and relief act, aided and abetted by clueless, self styled and appointed “environmentalists” and cynical electeds.

A shame, it could be done much better.
RE: Housing supply/demand myths: More doesn't always equal affordable
Report a violationPosted by: Matt on Apr 19, 2007 1:40 PM
(Sorry I'm picking on you again Geof, but your arguments are more reasoned and articulate than most, so it's easier to have an interesting debate.)

I know it seems like turning your neighbor's $300k house into 4 x $600k condos seems like its made housing there less affordable, but I think if you really look at the issue you'll find that for each family the cost of housing has gone down.

Let's assume there is a $300k house located right next door to these condos. Would you buy the $300k house or the $600k condo? My guess is that any reasonable person would choose the half-price 4-times-the-land house. If that's the case, how could they possibly be selling these things? The answer is mostly that the value of this house has gone up much more than you're letting on.

Which brings me to my point. The reason it feels like condos are increasing housing prices is because condos come when housing prices are high. It's not the other way around. When people can't afford $1M houses and are willing to lose a yard in exchange for not having to spend 2 hours a day commuting, then developers see a market and buy that $1M house, chop it up, and sell the pieces.

Now, let's skip down to your paragraph that starts out "Instead of rezoning the whole city to one big MF zone..." The funny thing is for all of our disagreement on market forces, we agree completely on implementation. What I'd like to see is skyscraper-style housing absorbing the extra people that want to live in the city. Build enough of these (slowly - not all at once), and prices for basic housing will fall. This way we keep beautiful old houses and the more unique neighborhoods. Yes, single family homes will become expensive, but we just can't stop that as long as Seattle is a desirable place to live.

Of course, there are a lot of other aspects that we'll have to get right (schools, transportation...), but potential end result is far better than any wide [starts to write "sprawling" bites tongue] city I've seen.
RE: Housing supply/demand myths: More doesn't always equal affordable
Report a violationPosted by: Geof Logan on Apr 19, 2007 2:51 PM
Thanks, will read it and try to get back to you later today or tomorrow, I've taken too much time today on this as is. I'm trying to impose limits... thank God cc keeps me to 4K char's.
Urban Myth: Seattle's population will grow at Beijing rates
Report a violationPosted by: Geof Logan on Apr 19, 2007 2:48 PM
Keep questioning the true believers Knute - you know, the kind who brought us the monorail.

A key part of the density cult's mythology is the mistaken belief of fantastic population growth in Seattle.

It isn't happening. Quite the opposite. When I moved here 30 yrs ago, Seattle's pop was less than 500K. Now it's what, 560-70k, on a good day?

Do the math. You couldn't find that growth rate with an electron 'scope. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future trends, but where's the growth gone the last thirty years? In the Counties.

It's likely to stay there.

Some call for 200,000 or more Seattle residents by 2020, or some such ridiculous figure. Hence, we need more "density" (a term no one really defines while advocating poorly thought out policies).

The only current potential for city pop growth is through annexation, which is, of course, not real "growth", just a shift of a map line. Mayor and Council, desperate to top 600K soon, are aggressively pursuing Highline/White Center for addition as one of the few opportunities for tax and revenue growth via eventual gentrification of a now low income 'hood.

No surprise, most in H/WC want nothing to do with it. They know what'll happen to their affordable homes and taxes if annexed to Seattle.

The PSRC, "Futurewise", “Sight(less)line” and other self serving political and non prof's would have you believe that the GMA is going to cause our city pop to spike.

In spite of the fact that there is little in the way of credible evidence in their politically motivated and deeply flawed studies and opinions to support such ludicrous projections.

Seattle's pop isn't growing, it's shifting. From a demographic of families, middle class and singles to DINKS, affluent singles and wealthy retirees - this itself a direct result of public policy choices.

A shift is not the same as an increase, but does bring changes in housing patterns and demand, supporting, for a time, MF housing and higher prices even if overall population isn't growing much.

Ironically, "densification" is part of the cause, by increasing home ownership costs and raising the base price of Seattle housing. Population growth is more likely to continue stagnating, eventually tipping into "negative growth”.

Just where are these people going find a place they can afford to live, or do you really believe that the stock of DINKS, affluent singles and wealthy retirees is truly limitless, as is their tolerance for steadily escalating taxes that can't fund ever declining services.

GMA aside, we’re far from running out of land in the Counties, where more affordable housing, better schools, services exist.

Ironically, this is bringing a Seattle population growth in one element: Cars, since working couples and singles feel they need one. Every new townhome in my n'hood – with good bus connections - brings at least two each. With 4 townhomes per lot, that makes for up to 16 per lot. I rarely see these people on the bus or walking. So much for density and transit getting rid of cars.

Higher taxes, deteriorating services, declining civic revenue streams, budget cuts, stagnant population growth, businesses fleeing expenses, families leaving for more affordable housing and better schools, etc. Seen in the 60's, this was called an "urban death spiral". Happened a lot. Took years to reverse.

Only a fool would believe it can’t happen here. It already is. Look around, the indicators are there.

Solutions to mitigate this fate require far more intelligent planning, creativity and open mindedness than currently exhibited by simple minded density cultists.

But this is, after all, Seattle. Land of fantasy
Food for Thought from Brian Derdowski
Report a violationPosted by: Brian Derdowski on Apr 19, 2007 2:58 PM
Skip's article and the resulting commentary has been excellent!

The most important thing the Growth Management Act did was to mandate comprehensive land use planning and require that zoning and other regulations be consistent with that planning. It also authorized developer impact fees, and required that land development be denied if adequate road, water, and sewer services were not available (concurrency). It mandated urban growth areas and environmental protections.

The Act was weakened subsequently by the Legislature and the Courts. The Land Development and Road Lobby Complex managed to implant an agenda of density mandates, weaken SEPA (State Environmental Policy Act), restrict citizen appeals and lawsuits, enlarge urban growth areas, weaken environmental standards, and negate concurrency standards.

Throughout most of the State, urban growth areas are too large, environmental standards are weak and unenforced, neighborhoods are over-run with irresponsible development, and the political forces in nearly every jurisdiction favor the development industry.

While there is some admirable work being done by various environmental and growth management organizations, there does not exist an effective grass-roots network to protect neighborhoods, control growth, and preserve the environment. We should create that network.

Land Development is heavily subsidized. For example each new home in a growing school district requires a public investment of over $25,000 to provide school capacity. Everything from utility fees to the gas tax subsidizes new development. Land speculators and developers are the biggest beneficiary of this corporate welfare.

The rate of growth and development is a policy question, not an inevitability.

We should be debating how much, and what kind of growth we should subsidize and enable, not just where to put it. Some growth requires too much infrastructure and creates too much pollution for what it delivers in the form of goods, services, and quality of life. Subsidies should be targeted, and gradually removed by applying impact fees throughout the State so that the market can begin to discipline land use. Some estimates say that a 100% developer impact fee would reduce sales and property taxes in half!

Density doesn't stop sprawl, and it doesn't create affordable housing.

Communities have the right to determine their own development standards. Those standards can include growth rate controls, rural, forest, and farm protections, design standards, preservation of older affordable housing stock, condo conversions, and even target sales ranges. This will stop sprawl and create affordable housing.

About two-thirds of the growth in our State is from net immigration. Soon, that growth will level off. We should be debating how best to spend our limited resources to support the kind of growth that maximizes social and economic justice as well as material wealth and taxes. We should be debating the condition of the end points of when population growth stops.

We do not have to be Lemmings jumping over the cliff into little boxes and a sterile gray environment.

We have a special obligation to protect this part of the world, an incredibly diverse and productive temperate rain forest. Doing things smarter with less, living within our means, and letting market forces and public policy discipline natural resource exploitation (and that includes land development) is an obligation that we owe future generations.

Besides, choosing to waste less is better than having the whole deal crash in over our heads.

Brian Derdowski
President, Public Interest Associates
King County Councilman 1990-2000
425-378-0999
"Seattle's soaring rent rate earns spot in $1,000 club"
Report a violationPosted by: Geof Logan on Apr 19, 2007 7:37 PM
For all of you who think that density equals affordability, take the latest reality check:

http://www.komotv.com/news/7109591.html

"Seattle's soaring rent rate earns spot in $1,000 club"

Speaks for itself, and further exposes the fallacious density arguments claiming more housing in and of itself equals affordability.
RE: "Seattle's soaring rent rate earns spot in $1,000 club"
Report a violationPosted by: Matt on Apr 20, 2007 8:40 AM
"Speaks for itself" Actually, it doesn't. You're making the same flawed argument that other are - prices have gone up and there are more people: therefore density = expensive.

What you're missing is that prices have been rising because people want to move here. If you don't build new places for them to live, they will bid on the few places available until prices have gone up. As the population increases so will housing costs unless you build more housing.
Geof
Report a violationPosted by: mhays on Apr 20, 2007 8:54 AM
Geof,

1. Seattle's growth of 90,000 from 1986-2006 is very impressive since average household size fell during this period (those dinks and singles you're talking about, as well as a trend toward smaller families), and since we're not full of vacant lots like some cities. Your count also forgets that we shrank until 1986, meaning the growth rate had to be much higher to get where we are. Our growth in occupied units is even higher than our population growth rate.

2. Proof?! Ever hear of supply and demand? Also, are you familiar with the massive global rise in construction prices that's in the paper constantly? Everything is "proof" to someone who only listens to their own side. Listen to Matt.
Investment or the American Dream
Report a violationPosted by: Livingston on Apr 20, 2007 11:26 AM
As we ponder what caused this and what caused that, let's think about a couple things while we sit on the can:

What does it mean when the desire for return on real estate investment exceeds the desire for the American Dream (including the white picket fence)? ("Now what was that home turn rate again?" "And what was that percentage of owner occupied homes number again?") And what causes the real estate ROI to exceed the AD satisfaction index? The same thing that coined the stock market phrase to never attempt to "catch a falling knife".

Is it possible that this factor has more to do with housing prices than all the theories we love to, well, theorize?

And what about our old friend Dr. Ian Malcolm (OK, trivia buffs ------ hint: really big lizards.): "Life will find a way."

To quote Wikipedia:

"In mathematics and physics, chaos theory describes the behavior of certain nonlinear dynamical systems that under certain conditions exhibit dynamics that are sensitive to initial conditions (popularly referred to as the butterfly effect). As a result of this sensitivity, the behavior of chaotic systems appears to be random, because of an exponential growth of errors in the initial conditions. This happens even though these systems are deterministic in the sense that their future dynamics are well defined by their initial conditions, and there are no random elements involved. This behavior is known as deterministic chaos, or simply chaos."

...and have we got one beauty of a chaotic system operating here! All the linear theory in the universe, as fun a game as it is to play, means nothing in a system like this.

There's only one way to influence a chaotic system, but it doesn't sell advertising, papers, make for blog-rush, or get people elected.

Remember Seattle, 1966. The "Turn out the Lights" Theory. Funny how that turned out. Welcome to the rollercoaster, kids.

Liv(e)

Stay tuned for the theory on the Puget Sound salmon population situation. Hint, does the downturn in PS salmon population coincide with the catch deal Canada made with the tribes? Geez if we could just take a few $million$ from the salmon habitat restoration projects (not the problem) and subsidize a little invasion of our neighbors to the north (ala South Park). But, now that I think about it that won't work. Just too much guilt stuff going on.
Density is local.
Report a violationPosted by: Patrick McGann on May 30, 2007 9:27 AM
Density -- here, on Crosscut -- is argued regionally. That's a mistake. Growth is regional but density is a local strategy. Problems associated with regional growth (business flight, homelessness, crime, etc) all centralize. In other words, as Kirkland and Bellevue and Aurburn and Kent and Shoreline grow, more and more homeless, addicts, gang bangers, etc. end up downtown in Seattle. There is nothing a city can do to stop that. Urban problems centralize. Density is implemented locally by city governments as an emergency response both to those problems as well as economic competition from the suburbs that erodes their tax base (sales tax) as their costs skyrocket. Every city in the West is trying some form of it with varying degress of success.

Density is an attempt to protect the city's vitals, its heart and lungs. That's it. And it's working. Density doesn't do anything to attack the other problems discussed here erroneously associated with density. Theoretically, density will ultimately increase the supply of housing to a point that housing values will fall (as in Vancouver) but nobody buying a condo downtown hopes that will happen.

South Lake Union, by the way, has never been home to much housing, affordable or otherwise, and in the last 40 years or so, it has hardly been a great contributor to the city's economic health.

And one other thing, why isn't anybody talking about the AGE of these new condo dwellers in SoLU?
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