Forget an independent bid for the presidency

Last night's Democratic caucuses result lessened the likelihood of a third-force movement led by New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg. Barack Obama's strong showing, cutting across all demographics, and Hillary Clinton's third-place finish (running strongly only among over-60 women), made it extremely likely that Obama will be nominated – unless someone in Hillary's corner turns dirty and tries to stop him with a smear campaign. On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee will fade. But the eventual GOP nominee, like Huckabee and Obama, also is likely to attract some independent votes. So doctrinaire Democratic and GOP nominees are not likely to head their tickets – leaving no large independent constituency for Bloomberg or another potential independent candidate to tap. Before yesterday's Iowa caucuses, I felt an independent candidacy was almost a likelihood. But not now.